美银证券：Adobe被低估但基本面存挑战，维持跑弱评级并设定目标价190美元

Cheap, but fundamentally challenged;Reinstating Underperform and $190 PO Reinstating Coverage:UNDERPERFORM| PO:190.00 USD| Price:218.07 USD AI-driven disruption narrows Adobe’s competitive moat 07 July 2026 We are reinstating coverage of Adobe (ADBE) with an Underperform rating anda $190PO, based on 7x CY27E EV/FCF. We flag rising risk to the growth profile as generative AI(GenAI) lowers barriers to content creation and increases competition from lower-costand AI-native alternatives. We believe some professionals will remain focused on pixellevel control and continue to utilize Adobe’s tools, but AI will likely displace large parts ofthe core market over time, with likely pressure onpricing and seat expansion. We seeAdobe’s own AI strategy as largely defensive, supporting engagement and retention butlimited on its ability to generate incremental high-quality ARR at scale. Equity Tal LianiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5107tal.liani@bofa.com Eden VacnichResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1971eden.vacnich@bofa.com Growth reacceleration unlikely in the near term Kevin NiederpruemResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855-1540kevin.niederpruem@bofa.com Our report is centered on a key question: can Adobe reaccelerate growth in the age ofAI?Adoption across AI products is notable, but we see limited evidence it translates intomeaningful ARR uplift, with AI-first ARR still representing <2% of total ARR. Risk isconcentrated in lower-end and prosumer cohorts, where“good enough”AI output cansubstitute for paid workflows, while professional and enterprise use cases remain moreresilient but not immune. At the same time, the shift toward freemium andconsumption-based pricing introduces monetization risk. We expect growth todecelerate over time and model it to decline from 10.5% in 2025 to 8.8% FY27E, withno clear path to near-term reacceleration. Valuation is tempting, butno catalyst in sight The stock trades at the low end of the peer group, at 8x CY27E EV/FCF, but valuationalone is insufficient to drive outperformance, in our view. Our 7x CY27E EV/FCF multiplereflects structurally slower growth and increasing uncertainty around monetizationquality. We expect margins and FCF generation to remain strong, but see limitedmultiple expansion without clear evidence of AI monetization and growth acceleration. See Glossary on page19 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 22 to 24. Analyst Certification on page 20. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 20.12977436 iQprofileSMAdobe Company SectorSoftware Company Description Adobe is a diversifiedsoftware company providing cloud-based solutions across digital media, document workflows,and enterprise marketing. The company's core offeringsinclude Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and ExperienceCloud, serving creative professionals, enterprises, and abroad base of prosumer and business users. Adobe'splatforms are built around industry standards such asPhotoshop and Acrobat, with increasing integration of AIcapabilities across products. Investment Rationale We see increasing risk toAdobe's growth trajectory drivenby: 1) AI compressing barriers of entry for competition frompoint solutions and AI-natives, 2) slowing adoption withpotential seat reduction in the core creative professionalmarket segment, and 3) AI consumption may weigh onmargins and profitability. This is balanced by: 1) largeCreative Cloud subscriber base 2) distribution channel &marketing personnel 3) breadth & depth of the digitalcontent and experience software suite. Stock Data Can growth reaccelerate in the GenAI era? Adobe remains deeply entrenched across creative, document, and marketing workflows,and its products remain the standard for many creative professionals and enterprises.The install base gives Adobe meaningful advantages: broad distribution, strong brandrecognition, workflow familiarity, high switching costs in professional use cases, and alarge subscription revenue base. However, the stock is down 70% since its 2024 peak (vs. +68% NASDAQ index) ongrowing concerns that GenAI could structurally disrupt Adobe’s core value proposition bylowering the skill barrier for content creation, enabling cheaper and simpler AI-nativecompetitors, and shifting value away from tools and toward models and workflows. Thisthreatens Adobe’s pricing power, seat-based revenue model, and growth durability. Evenwith solid AI product execution, the risk is that Adobe becomes less valuable in a worldwhere creation is increasingly simplified, resulting in sustained growth slowdown. The Company responded by introducing its own AI based solutions, and we see evidenceof initial traction. In 2Q26, AI-first ARR more