中国智能手机追踪器（5月）：历史新高ASP和库存水平

China Smartphone Tracker (May): Historical high ASP andinventory level Please download our smartphone monthly tracker data fromhere. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com High memory costs pressured all segments.In May, China smartphone sell-throughpicked up 5% MoM but dropped 20% YoY to 17.3M units, making 5M26 cumulative shipmentfall by 9% YoY. High memory price weighed on all segments with low-, mid-, and high-endsegment dropping 38%, 17%, and 5% YoY, respectively. The contribution from entry-levelmodels in the overall shipment mix fell to a record low in May. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Historical high ASP ...May ASP rose 24% YoY, a clear acceleration from the mid-teens %seen in 4M26, and was materially higher than prior-year levels. We attribute this to both anupgrade in shipment mix during the “618 Shopping Festival” and memory costs resulting inreduced low-end contribution & also like-for-like price hikes. We remain cautious on demand,as higher handset prices could suppress volumes and ultimately limit further ASP upside. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com … and inventory level.After adjusting for possible obsolescence, we still find Androidbrands have recorded notably higher sell-in than sell-through for two consecutive months.Their inventory level reached a historical high of 3.9 months. Smartphone OEMs foundthemselves caught in a dilemma of high-inventory and thin (or even negative) margin, and thatmay explain the less aggressive discounts in this year’s “618” festival. Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Aleksander Peterc+33 1 57 29 45 25aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Apple turned more aggressive on pricingby cutting the iPhone 17 Pro by RMB1,000during the “618” campaign and bringing its price below RMB 7,000 for the first time. Thisdrove a 6ppt unit share gain from Huawei sequentially. Huawei had benefited from the newPura 80 launch cycle, but early feedback has been lukewarm. We see higher processor costsfrom SMIC’s “N+3” node and elevated memory prices, limit Huawei’s ability to compete in aprice war. We rate MediaTek Outperform(report, model). We currently forecast the ASIC revenue tobe US$2B,15B and 22B in 2026–2028, respectively, but see an upside risk to it, especiallyin 2028. Smartphone revenue should drop, but TPU revenue should be more than enough tooffset that. Outperform. We rate Apple Outperform as strength continues and share gains play out(see AppleDeep Dive and recent APPLE TRACKER). For suppliers in smartphone value chain, Luxshareand Largan should be more resilient than Sunny Optical this year, supported by stronger Appleexposure (vs. Android) and ongoing progress in AI-related products. Xiaomi’s (OP) shipments declined by -29%YoY on a high base, with market share fallingto 14.5%, down from 14.6% in April 2026 and 16.1% in May 2025. In 5M26, shipments ofhigh-end models (RMB 4k+) declined by -14% YoY. Meanwhile, mid-range (RMB 2–4k) andlow-end (