美国合众银行(USB.US)上调至买入：趋势向好，运营杠杆改善

USA | Large-Cap & Mid-Cap BanksU.S. Bancorp Equity ResearchJuly 6, 2026 Upgrading to BUY: Trends Inflecting Favorablywith Operating Leverage Upside We're upgrading U.S. Bancorp to BUY from HOLD as trends inflect morefavorably with updates at a recent conference pointing to NII and fee incometrending toward the high end of the 6-7% guides for each. We believe there couldbe meaningful upside to the company's positive operating leverage guide of>200 bp for 2026, and expect it could be closer to 300 bp. The new Amazonpartnership (NII benefit $75-$85 mn/qtr) and BTIG acquisition are additionaltailwinds. Earnings diversification and strong profitability aren't appropriately reflected in USB's valuation,in our view.USB trades in line with regional peers on 2027 EPS (10.7x) and we forecast a ROTCE of17% supported by one of the most diversified fee franchises of the regionals. Even though earningsgrowth is trending in line with peers (LDD), we believe there could be upside, plus investors maybe under-appreciating the durability of earnings generated across payments, capital markets, trust,investment services, and spread income. Management is targeting positive operating leverage of>200 bp and fee growth, while recent commentary suggests trends remain favorable, with NIItracking toward the upper end of guidance and fee revenue outperforming, led by capital markets. Amazon partnership and BTIG acquisition are tailwinds that support earnings quality.USBcontinues to reposition the balance sheet toward higher-return C&I and credit card lendingwhile reducing mortgage exposure. The onboarding of $1.6B of Amazon-related small businesscard balances in 3Q should support loan growth, NII, and payments revenue. Investors maybe overlooking the earnings potential within the payments franchise, in our view. Merchantacquiring and processing is a high-margin business undergoing a multi-year transformationtoward specialized verticals, and the additional investment in relationship management and directsales should stabilize this business. USB is adding to its earnings diversification with increasedinvestments in fee generating businesses including the growth of its capital markets capabilitiesfollowing the BTIG acquisition (should drive CM revenue to 11% of total revs from 7%). M&A related to whole bank deals we believe are a low priority, which we view as a positive, withthe focus more on bolt-on acquisitions that fill product gaps and deepen client relationships, asevidenced by the BTIG deal. .Source: Jefferies, company documents Valuation we view as attractive given earnings upside, POL upside, and a diversified earningsbase.USB trades at 10.7x our 2027 EPS, in line with regional peers. Our revised price target of$75 (was $60) is based on a target P/E multiple on 2027 EPS of 13.0x, which is above the peermedian target of 10.7x, owing to its superior profitability, payments franchise, and expanding feebusinesses. David Chiaverini, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8554 | dchiaverini@jefferies.com Brian Violino, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 444-4139 | bviolino@jefferies.com Frank Williams * | Equity Analyst+1 (917) 716-3107 | fwilliams2@jefferies.com Brooks Dutton * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 510-3220 | bdutton@jefferies.com Max Asteris, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8540 | masteris@jefferies.com The Long View: U.S. Bancorp Investment Thesis Our BUY rating reflects our view that USB's premium profitability, diversifiedfee businesses, and attractive capital return potential are not fully reflectedin the current valuation. While earnings growth is expected to be broadly inline with peers, we believe the company's ~17% ROTCE, expanding capitalmarkets capabilities, improving payments franchise, and multiple self-helpinitiatives support a premium valuation relative to the regional bank group. Thecompany’s two-year CAGRs for loans and deposits through 1Q26 are 2.9% and0.0%, respectively, compared to its large regional peers at 3.0% and 1.1%. Loanand deposit growth through 1Q27 is projected at 3.7% and 3.0%, compared toits large regional peers at 5.0% and 3.7%. Downside Scenario,$50, -19% Upside Scenario,$85, +38% Base Case,$75, +21% •Yield curve steepens, revenue growth is above6%•Macro drivers of fee income improve, revenuegrowth is above 6%•GDP growth stronger than expected,loangrowth above 4%•Expense growth is contained, positive operatingleverage is well above 200 bps.•Macro environment improves, NCOs are lowerthan expected•Upside price target: $85 or 14.7x multiple on2027E EPS •GDP growth and forward curve meet consensusexpectations•FY26: Loan growth of MSD's•FY26: Deposit growth in-line with loan growth•FY26: Total revenue growth of 4-6%•FY26: Positive operating leverage of 200+ bps•Price target: $75, or 13.0x multiple on 2027EEPS •Yield curve flattens, revenue growth is below 4%•Macro drivers of fee income deteriorate,revenue growth is below 4%•GDP growth weaker than expected, loan growthbelow 3%•Expe