商品市场脉络梳理（6月29日至7月5日）

China (PRC) | Metals & Mining Connecting the Dots in Commodities (Jun 29-Jul 5) Wetrack high-frequency data,including price,spread and inventorymovement etc in China commodities. •Copper: LME copper cash was mostly flat WoW. US NFP in Jun fell significantly short ofexpectations, which alleviated concerns on an immediate rate hike. Antofagasta shiftedits mid-year long-term contract pricing for copper concentrate to spot-indexed TC/RC witha guaranteed floor, vs a fixed price that had run for decades, which indicates sustainedtightness for copper concentrate.• Aluminum: LME aluminum continued to decline by 2.8% WoW while China spot was downby 0.6% WoW. Concerns on smelter restarts/ expansions ex-China continued to weighon pricing. China aluminum ingot+bar social inventory dropped by 85kt or 6.3% WoW,accelerated a bit vs previous weeks.• Lithium: China lithium carbonate spot recovered by RMB8k/t or 5% WoW. This isdespite the National Business Daily's report on Jun 29 that Jianxiawo has reportedlyreceived approvals related to safety production, which suggests its restart may be close/sometime this year. The company has not commented via official channels. Confidencein near-term demand, as indicated by the MoM increase in battery production scheduling,outweighed supply concerns. Destocking continued while weekly production decreasedby 3.5% WoW, mainly due to spodumene-based converters.• Thermal coal: QHD5500 declined by RMB26/t or 3% WoW. Daily burn at IPPs was ata seasonal low due to rainy weather, and inventory at major northern ports touched aseasonal high of around 29mt, both leading to price weakness.• Steel: Spread continued to narrow due to lower steel price, resilient iron ore and highercoke price. Average daily molten iron increased to 2.43mt despite soft demand. Steel priceand spread is expected to remain under pressure without effective production discipline. •Cement: National average price dropped by 0.9% WoW on weak demand, and the markethas seen corrections in regions that raised prices earlier. Some producers still attemptto improve profitability through self-discipline, but we are cautious on the outcome,especially when demand tends to be soft during hot weather. Weekly chartbook Copper .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: SMM, Jefferies .Source: Wind, LME, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Aluminum .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies .Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Lithium Source: Asian Metal, SMM, Jefferies Source: SMM, Jefferies .Source: GFEX, Jefferies Thermal coal Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Sxcoal, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Mysteel, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Cement .Source: Digital Cement, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Digital Cement, Wind, Jefferies Source: Digital Cement, Jefferies Analyst Certification: I, Shuhang Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Shuhang Jiang is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedJuly 6, 2026 7:46 A.M.Recommendation DistributedJuly 6, 2026 7:46 A.M. Explanation of Jefferies Ratings Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plu