固特异轮胎2026年Q2业绩及2026年展望

CompanyGoodyear Tire & Rubber Results North AmericaUnited States ReutersBloombergExchangeTickerGT.OQGT USNMSGT ConsumerAutos & Auto Technology 2Q26 Preview Valuation & Risks Edison Yu 2Q26 Earnings Research Analyst+1-212-250-7263 While the overall macro environment has improved materially over the last fewweeks with the potential end to the conflict, we generally expect the quarter to bein line with company guidance and relatively un-impacted by the volatility infeedstock. Looking at volumes, we expect a YoY decrease of -5%, the 16th straightquarter of YoY volume reductions, though less severe than last quarter's -12%.Conditions across most geographies continue to be negative for sell-in though weanticipate some improvement in quarterly volumes going forward with inventoriesnow approaching normalization. North America, like last quarter, is expected to seethe most volume declines as the company completes the SKU rationalizationprogram laid out in its Goodyear Forward initiative. There are also two one-off pointsof note which will weigh on earnings a bit. Similar to last quarter, the company willincur, despite operating losses, a tax expense which is due to unusual taxjurisdiction rules. Second, there will be an additional $15m or so expense from aprice fixing lawsuit brought against many tire manufacturers in Turkey. All in, wenow anticipate sales/SOI estimates of $4.37bn/$12m, compared to relatively staleconsensus of $4.13bn/$40m which likely doesn’t incorporate higher interest rates,nor the one-off Turkey expense. James Mulholland, CFAResearch Associate+1-212-250-6026 Winnie DongResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5121 2026 Outlook Since the prior update, much has changed in the geopolitical landscape, with afragile peace in the Middle East lowering many of the raw material inputs relativeto the prior guide. That said, volumes are still expected to be down LSD% for theyear, mostly driven by the first two quarters in North America. We continue toexpect pricing, overall, to be up incrementally, driven mostly by the Europe marketwhich saw announced increases in replacement and commercial vehicle tires lastquarter. Raw materials, however, will be the determining factor for how the yearshakes out. While many of the feedstock categories have fallen precipitously fromtheir high levels, they still remain elevated relative to the initial guidance for the year.That said, we now expect a slight benefit in raw materials in 3Q and significantly lessimpacts in 4Q than prior estimates. In our view, it will take some time for rawmaterials to fall further and given the lag, we anticipate most of the incrementalbenefits as a 2027 story. All in, we now estimate sales of $18.13bn and SOI of$767m which in turn flows through to slightly higher EBITDA of $1,550m, reflectinga slight improvement vs. our prior SOI/EBITDA estimate of $692m/$1,471m. 6 July 2026Autos & Auto TechnologyGoodyear Tire & Rubber Fayetteville and Debt to impact cash balances in near term Worth highlighting is the unusual cash flow and cash balance that the company willlikely experience over the next few quarters, leading it to elevated cash balances.First, we anticipate ~$300m to be recognized in net rationalization charges in thequarter related to the eventual payments over the next few years as the Fayettevilleplant closure commences (2027). Rationalization payments will occur over thecoming years but in the short term will distort free cash flow. Similarly, theadditional $230m in debt raised in the quarter (new debt ex. refinancing) will raisecash balances above where they normally are, especially in 4Q as working capitalis drawn down. We do anticipate the company to slowly decrease its leverage ascash flow becomes available towards the end of this year and through 2028 whenbalances should return to more normalized levels. Maintain Hold, $7 price target While things have seemingly calmed down from a geopolitical standpoint, we stillharbor concerns that spikes in raw materials could weigh materially on the resultsat the end of 2026 and into 2027. We have raised our SOI estimates, which in turnraise our EBITDA to reflect the better raw material environment. That said, we lowerour multiple on the uncertainty of stability of the raw material feedstock as well asexecution risk inherent with the recently announced CFO transition. All in, wemaintain our Hold and our $7 price target, now based on 4.75x 2026E EBITDA (prior5.25x 2026E EBITDA). Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently publ