技术能源企业Technip Energies的前瞻性盈利前景分析：预电话会议后的乐观预期

Price Target Technip Energies: A (much) more confident pre-earnings call thanwe had imagined – we expect the share price to rise We regularly hold calls with companies towards the end of each quarter, making sure we areup-to-date with their latest communications ahead of any “quiet period”. We comment on thesediscussions soon after holding these calls, even if they are simply a re-iteration of previousmessages. Technip Energies held a group pre-earnings call on 6 July at 18:00 CET (2Q26 results:30 July 2026). Close Date6 Jul 2026TE.FP Close Price (EUR)34.66Price Target (EUR)47.00Upside/(Downside)36%52-Week Range42.82/30.80EDME1,622.79FYEDecDiv Yield2.9%Market Cap (EUR) (M)6,183EV (EUR) (M)6,847 Order intake… don’t forget TPS.After the Commonwealth and Coral Norte contracts wereannounced, we knew that 2Q26 order intake could be in excess of €5bn, with a likely c.€24bnbacklog in 2Q26 (1Q26: €20bn). What is new however is that the Technology, Products &Services (TPS) division also seems to have posted solid 2Q26 order intake. This is reassuringand paves the way for a stronger TPS performance in 2H26. Normalisation in Middle East. 1)Operations in the region are now “steady” as the situationis “normalising”.2)Capitalising on its very protective contractual schemes, the company sawextra costs drop in 2Q26. This alleviates one of our key concerns.3)In other words, it suggeststhat the new “conditional guidance” unveiled in 1Q26 (Project Delivery revenue: €5.7-6.3bn,with a 6.5%-7.5% EBITDA margin; TPS revenue: €1.9-2.2bn with a 14.5% EBITDA margin)may remain valid,a major positive for the share, in our view.4)We also understood that the firsttrain for QatarEnergy’s NFE project might be commissioned as early as 2H26. One minor negative, offset by a further major positive.The only negative takeawayrelates to fiercer-than-expected competition from Saipem on the Rovuma project inMozambique, despite Technip Energies having completed the FEED for the project. Themore significant positive is the increasingly supportive market environment, characterisedby a growing pipeline of early-stage FEED opportunities. This reinforces our conviction thatthe industry is laying the groundwork for a renewed acceleration in the award of large EPCprojects towards the end of the decade. Investment Implications DETAILS EXHIBIT 2:While we are still below consensus for FY26, we are are in line (€153m vs €152m) with consensus for2Q26 EBITDA. Note that our above-consensus adjusted net income is explained by our particular methodology. EXHIBIT 3:New (conditional) guidance. Following disappointing 1Q26 revenue of €1,782m (PD: €1,341m; TPS :€441m) and EBITDA of (PD: €94m; TPS: €68m), Technip Energies trimmed its FY26 guidance in 1Q26. Thecompany stated that c.€200m of revenue had been deferred in 1Q26 and that an estimated €500-600m could bedeferred beyond 2026. EXHIBIT 4:Company backlog set to continue to grow: €16bn (FY25), €20.2bn (1Q26 - this chart) and probably c.€24bn at 2Q26 on our estimates following the 2Q26 announcements of two major contracts: Commonwealth (>€4bn on our estimates) and Coral Norte (c.€0.5bn). This might lead to 2027-28 upgrades. EXHIBIT 5:Quarterly revenue/EBITDA by segment. 1) We expect 2Q26 revenue of €1,905m (= €1,405m + €500m)and EBITDA of €153m (=€98m+€70m- €15m). This is exactly in line with BBG consensus (€1,909m/€153m). 2) Wealso expect FY26 revenue of €7,790m (=€5,790m + €2,000m) and EBITDA of €632m (=€408m+€284m - €60m),below BBG consensus of €8,026m/€658m. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Technip Energies Our €47.0 PT is based on a DCF methodology with a 9% WACC, a 2.5% LT growth rate to perpetuity and a €490m normalized FCF. RISKS Technip Energies Downside risk: 1) Longer blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, 2) Higher execution risk in a more inflationary environment and 3)Possible postponements of energy transition projects. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQ