数字资产备忘录：比特币还有生机吗？

Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.comMahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.comSanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.comHarsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com The Digital Assets Memo: Bitcoin any signs of life? (122/n) Bitcoin retested its recent lows around ~$60K and is now experiencing a mild bounce to ~$63K. We walk through the market factorsdriving its price and look for any signs of life for a new Bitcoin price cycle to emerge. The crypto bear market (from the cycle top around Nov 2025) has lasted three quarters (historical drawdowns have lasted 12-15 months).The Bitcoin drawdown has been close to ~54% from the ~$125K cycle top. Although, it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods, butthis crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown (~75-90% BTC drawdown past cycles - see Exhibit 1). Bitcoin inflows from leading treasury companies and ETFs stands at $10Bn in 2026 vs. $60Bn in 2025. Further breakdown suggests thatBitcoin ETFs have seen $5.5Bn outflows this year out of the $74Bn total AUM, implying inflows have been driven by treasury companies -particularly Strategy (MSTR). Although $5.5Bn ETF outflows over an AUM base of $74bn combined with a ~50% BTC correction feels likethe sentiment has been far worse than the reality of flows this year. And in a market where liquidity was concentrated in AI equities, a netpositive inflow year for Bitcoin doesn’t seem as bad. Strategy (MSTR) has gone through its own fear cycle. STRC, the primary preferred perpetual offering by Strategy has witnessed volatility -STRC current market price stands at $87.87 (vs. face value of $100). However, Strategy has been able to maintain its balance sheet liquidityto more than cover the cash dividends and interest cost (over 17 months cash cover - Exhibit 2). Strategy’s debt liabilities are mere 13%of its Bitcoin collateral value with the next principal due (approx. $1Bn) by Q3’2028. The ~$15Bn preferred principal is perpetual longterm balance sheet capital. Strategy as part of capital policy has suggested it could sell upto $1.25Bn Bitcoin to fund dividend and interestexpense, replenish USD reserves and support buyback plans for MSTR Common shares and preferred instruments. Strategy continues tomaintain USD reserve coverage of ~17 months for dividend and interest expenses, with any reduction below 12 months requiring boardauthorization.Thus, it looks unlikely any major Bitcoin forced supply could come from Strategy and it continues to be a net buyerin the market. Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has been a balancing force in the market where leading U.S Bitcoin miners have been net sellers as they acceleratetheir pivot to AI data centers. Overall, we expect, leading U.S listed Bitcoin miners to completely move away from Bitcoin mining, with theirshare of hash rate being absorbed by international miners mostly in emerging markets (including Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and LatinAmerica). Overall, Bitcoin hash rate has declined marginally (average hash rate YTD 11% down), implying lost U.S share is absorbed by non-US BTC miners so far. For example, U.S Bitcoin miners’ share of total Bitcoin network hashrate has declined over 40 bps over the last twoquarters, while miners located in emerging markets have gained ~100bps share over the same period. Further, regulatory progress on overall crypto markets in the U.S has been strong - GENIUS Act rule making on stablecoins continues, Cryptoperpetual futures are now being rolled out in the U.S (Kalshi and Coinbase) and there is still hope CLARITY Act will pass in 2026 (still 50:50odds on Polymarket). We expect continued regulatory progress to drive more market liquidity and institutional adoption for both crypto-native assets and blockchain version of real-world assets (debt, equities, money market etc). Overall, real-world assets tokenization valuecontinues to climb new highs (~$52 Bn tokenised - Exhibit 4 ). Bottomline, any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting. Crypto feels like its growing up. We remain optimistic onBitcoin long term. We reckon, our 2026 year-end $150K BTC price target appears ambitious in context of the market correction. However, we expect Bitcoin cycle will eventually turn (see Exhibit 1 - on past cycles) and we continue to watch the BTC flows to see any signs of life. GLOBAL DIGITAL ASSETS - NEWSFLOW ON STOCKS COVERED BLSH:Bullish received GFSC (Gibraltar Financial Services Commission) approval to offer trading in tokenized securities. The approvalpositions Bullish among the first regulated venues for issuer-sponsored tokenized securities and will serve eligible non-U.S. investors.Trading is expected to go live in the coming weeks, pending final requirements. MSTR:Strategy announced a Digital Credit Capital Framework to improve liquidity. It includes (i) maintaining minimum USD reserve equalto atleast 12 months of dividend a