数字资产备忘录：我们对比特币及加密货币回调的看法

Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.comMahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.comSanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.comAman Jain+91 226 842 1486aman.jain@bernsteinsg.com The Digital Assets Memo: Our thoughts on Bitcoin & cryptocorrection (112/n) Bitcoin has corrected ~25% from its 2025 peak. YTD Bitcoin is down 1% but still up ~100% for the last 3 years. We believe, thecurrent price action reflects fears stemming from the historical 4-year cycle peak pattern (2021-2025). However, we believe,institutional (and eventually sovereign) ownership of Bitcoin is a structural long-term trend and the current price action reflects a(relatively) shallow and short-term correction. The Bitcoin market has historically followed 4-year cycles. The 4-year cycle historically has synched with the Bitcoin having cycles leading tomarket peaks in the year following the halving year - 2017 ($20K peak), 2021($68K peak) and now the market sentiment suggests a 2025peak. This self-fulfilling prophecy has led to a market sell-off for Bitcoin in Q4’25. Investors have continued selling into the Q4 weaknesspreempting the feared cycle top. However, we believe, the following evidence points to a short term consolidation into a new local bottomand not the historical 60-70% drawdown seen in previous cycles. 1. If we look into Bitcoin HODL data (>1 year Bitcoin holder’s data), it points to close to ~340K Bitcoin sold in the last 6 months by investorswho have held Bitcoin for over 1 year. This profit booking has led to close to ~$38Bn of Bitcoin sold, in contrast to ~$34bn of Bitcoin inflowsseen across ETFs and Bitcoin treasury inflows. Thus, a large part of secondary market selling has been well absorbed, with ~25% correctionfrom BTC market peak. 2. The ETF institutional ownership has increased from 20% of Bitcoin ETF AUM to 28% of Bitcoin ETF AUM, reflecting higher quality andconsistent ownership for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs despite the recent correction still stands at $125Bn of AUM, with ~$3Bn outflows in the last 3weeks. 3. Strategy (MSTR) is trading close to its Bitcoin NAV (MSTR EV/NAV ~1.2x). This has led to undue fears about MSTR having to liquidate itsBitcoin, if price continues falling. This is far from the truth. MSTR management has confirmed not selling or intending to sell a single Bitcoin.In fact, with debt at $8bn vs. $61bn of Bitcoin NAV, the leverage remains conservative. Further, none of Strategy’s debt is short term andcallable, which could lead to any immediate liquidity pressure. Out of the $8Bn debt, $6.4Bn is out-of-money, with first repayment due in2029. The preferred shares are perpetual and non-callable. The dividend on preferred shares and cash coupon ($700Mn due annually) iswell covered by $61Bn liquid Bitcoin and its ability to access capital on tap via ATMs (MSTR, STRC, STRK etc). 4. Recently, Strategy raised $700mn by issuing preferred shares (STRE) for the EU market. We expect Strategy to continue buying moreBitcoin through this market correction. MSTR shares have traded close to their NAV in the past in 2022 (EV/NAV 1.2 in 2022), and thecapital market in 2022 was extremely shallow then for Strategy’s credit instruments. MSTR today has built a strong institutional capitalmarket for its credit products and MSTR equity today trades $3Bn ADV vs. $0.2Bn ADV (2022 average), leading to adequate liquidity on-tap.Strategy has been able to raise $7.5Bn from its stack of preferred instruments (STRK, STRF, STRC, STRD, STRE etc.) with strong institutionalappetite, with each issue upsized post launch. 5. The Trump administration remains the strongest supporters of Bitcoin and digital asset markets. The U.S government considers healthycrypto markets and crypto leadership as a strategic priority. We expect voting and approval of the market structure bill (Clarity Act) by Q4’25end/Q1’26. The Clarity Act would further accelerate institutional participation in Crypto markets. Upcoming 2026 midterms and lower rates also bode well for market liquidity and hard assets such as Bitcoin. 6. Crypto equities had a stellar Q3- Coinbase, Robinhood, Figure, Circle all beat consensus estimates. This business momentum in Crypto/blockchain operating businesses is structural with strong evidence of institutional participation in tokenization and stablecoins - two megatrends of this crypto cycle. The current market environment does not feel like a cycle-peak to us. It rather feels like a structural multi-year trend of institutionalparticipation in Bitcoin and crypto capital markets, with occasional corrections along the way. We are observing if Bitcoin can bottom closeto ~$80K range seen immediately post the Trump election. We believe, the current market weakness may provide an attractive entry for newinvestors in the space across Digital assets and Digital asset equities. We remain Outperform on COIN, HOOD, CRCL, FIGR, MSTR, SBET. GLOBAL DIGITAL ASSETS - NEWSFLOW ON STOCK