数字资产备忘录：比特币流动性——低零售贝塔及一些AI多元化

Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.comMahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com Sanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.comHarsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com The Digital Assets Memo: Bitcoin flows...Low retail beta andsome AI diversification may not be too bad (121/n) Bitcoin has seen significant weekly outflows from the ETF in the last 4 weeks. Bitcoin’s sell-off is often blamed on quantum riskconcerns, however, we believe, Bitcoin price is a reflection of relative flows. The net inflows into Bitcoin in 2026 has been significantlyweaker vs. 2025. Bitcoin tends to be cyclical and lower near term flows does not impact our long term ‘store of value’ thesis. Further, Bitcoin in 2026 has struggled with new capital flows despite new institutional on-ramps being added. The institutional adoption hasprogressed across asset managers, brokers and banks. The total crypto market cap stands at ~$2Tn a tiny speck within several hundredtrillion dollars of equities and commodities which has been the focus of investors this cycle. In fact, the part of the crypto which has done wellis not surprisingly linked to tokenization of real-world assets - growing trading interest in tokenized equities and commodities. The success Bitcoin inflows from treasury companies and ETFs stands at $12Bn in 2026 vs. $60Bn in 2025. Further breakdown suggests thatBitcoin ETFs have seen $2.6Bn outflows this year out of the $75Bn total AUM, implying inflows have been driven by treasury companies- particularly Strategy. However, in a market completely dominated by retail’s obsession with AI, mere $2.6Bn outflows YTD are almost In 2026, Strategy focused on the STRC preferred product to scale capital for Bitcoin acquisitions. Strategy has raised $7.5Bn from STRC inCY26 YTD, purchasing ~100,000 Bitcoin from STRC alone. Strategy has focused on STRC as the long-term balance sheet debt (principaldoes not come due) and its focus has been to maintain its ability to fund the dividends. STRC’s annual cash dividend of $1.2Bn ($1.7Bn allpreferred combined) is well covered by its cash reserves, liquidity from equity ATMs (MSTR remains above NAV and liquid to raise capital) Strategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin ($2.5Mn) labeling it as ‘inoculation’ that they maintain the ability to sell Bitcoin to fund any dividends($53Bn BTC position covers annual cash dividend over 30x). Strategy’s balance sheet cash covers dividend for another 6 months and stillmaintains ability to raise equity for liquidity (MSTR has raised over billion dollars in a week several times and equity liquidity remains strong). Historically, Bitcoin flows were harder to track in absence of ETFs and treasury companies. Thus, a historical ~70% BTC drawdown wasdriven by the retail sentiment and crypto exchanges volumes were good indicators of market capitulations and inflections. This cycle, retailhas chased the new shinier asset (AI). However, the current Bitcoin market structure has been more varied across ETFs, treasury companies,new broker-dealers/wealth platforms and even banks as new capital on-ramps. This has lead to a healthier market structure of Bitcoin withdiversified ownership across retail, corporate owners, wealth clients, new funds including pension and sovereign funds. We believe, thismaturation phase of Bitcoin is less appreciated and the criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum - which may not be a bad GLOBAL DIGITAL ASSETS - NEWSFLOW ON STOCKS COVERED HOOD:HOOD has started rolling out prediction market contracts on Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing house (JV betweenRobinhood and Susquehanna International Group). Prediction markets is the fastest growing revenue line for Robinhood with 12Bn eventcontracts traded in 2025 and 16Bn contracts traded in 2026 YTD. HOOD has also introduced competitive commission fees model based on COIN:Coinbase is now a CFTC regulated platform to offer US investors access to global crypto derivatives (perpetuals futures and options).Deribit holds over $31Bn in Bitcoin option open interest. Coinbase has also rolled out pre-IPO perpetual futures for private companies, with FIGR:FIGR has originated $1.4Bn consumer loans in May’26, up 5% MoM and 135% YoY. In Q2’26 so far Figure has originated $2.7Bn,tracking towards higher end of the $3.8-4.1Bn Q2’26 volume guidance. YLDS supply in circulation is up 5% MoM to $557Mn, whilematched balance on Democratized Prime are flat at $385Mn. IREN:IREN has announced 800MW data center campus in South Australia, marking its expansion in the APAC region. The site benefits fromsubmarine fiber connectivity into major demand hubs like Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, and IREN expects energization to PRICE PERFORMANCE - CRYPTO & CONVENTIONAL ASSETS EXHIBIT 4:Price performance - BTC, ETH, crypto equities and traditional assets Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416 gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com CRYP