美洲铀与核能：79个小型模块化反应堆项目谁会胜出

Americas Uranium & Nuclear: Which of the 79 SMR (SmallModular Reactor) projects will win? We are uranium & nuclear bulls (e.g., Bernstein 2026 Uranium/Nuclear Outlook: Glow up orblow up?) and one catalyst around uranium demand we hear is the success of SMRs (SmallModular Reactors). In this note we review and rank the 79 SMR projects in the pipeline,highlight potential commercial winners, but ultimately see other catalysts as more importantto uranium demand over the next decade. GEV (Outperform) and CCJ (Outperform) are on theleaderboard for commercial SMR. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro, CFA+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com We don’t think so. We lay our reasons below - - If the load is large, urgent, and 24/7, the first nuclear answer is likely the existing fleet: lifeextensions, uprates, restarts, and eventually large reactors. SMR still matter, but mostly as asecond-wave option for smaller grids, phased industrial loads, coal-site replacement, etc. Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com - We introduce our weighted scorecard across licensing, financing, fuel, siting, supply chainand engagement (Exhibit 4- Exhibit 7). Raphael Lee+1 917 344 8355raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com - We like SMR projects with high licensing and financing scores, but those projects aremostly government-backed nuclear or US defense and DOE supported demo (Exhibit 8). - Fuel supply is a gating Item, not a footnote. Many advanced SMRs require HALEU, TRISO,metallic, or molten-salt fuel systems. We rank these fuels from high to low supply certaintyand find that for most SMR designs, fuel availability is a gating constraint, not a secondaryconsideration (Exhibit 11). - Lastly, we discuss the unavoidable math problem: If SMRs cost ~2-3x an AP1000 on aper-kW basis yet deliver less than 1/3 the capacity, the economics demand justification(Exhibit 12). SMRs may retain valid use cases: small grid deployment, coal-site replacement,remote power, defense, and industrial heat, but these are far narrower theses than the AItrade that the market is pricing in. The near-term trade is existing nuclear: uprates, restarts and life extension. That is wherethe megawatts are real, the assets are known and the customer need is immediate.Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) are the first major beneficiaries and areworking on several large restart projects. Positive news about commercial deployment ofthe BWRX-300 is a clear benefit for GEV, given its ownership of the GEV Hitachi NuclearEnergy joint ventures that are leading BWRX-300 projects such as the first unit now underconstruction at Ontario Power Generation (OPG)’s Darlington site. The longer-term trade is uranium because CCJ and KAP do not need SMRs to work to win.SMRs will not be dead. They are just not the answer to every AI power question. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The near-term trade is in existing nuclear, and CEG and VST are positioned as early major beneficiaries, with multiple largerestart projects underway. For GEV, the key upside comes from successful commercial deployment of the BWRX-300, given itsstake in the GEV - Hitachi Nuclear Energy JVs leading projects like the first unit at OPG’s Darlington site. AP300 (and to a lesser degree e-Vinci) is another leading candidate for successful commercial SMR deployment byWestinghouse and CCJ owns 49% of Westinghouse. We ascribe no value to a success-case SMR in our valuation, and thus it isadditional upside. DETAILS We remind investors that SMRs (a form of new nuclear) are base load, near-zero emissions but are challenged by speed topower. We research each energy source in-depth here: The American Energy Transition: Grid, Gas, and Green - Sector Initiation - Power and Energy Transition EXHIBIT 1:New Nuclear (including SMR) benefits from reliability but suffers from speed to power We also contrast new-build SMRs (the focus of this note) with conventional reactor restarts. Three nuclear projects areconfirmed to re-start. In addition, Taiwan could add ~4GW if Kuosheng and Maanshan restart, while Japan has 10+ additionaloperable reactors that are in the restart process. Reactor re-starts (and the resultant increase in uranium demand) is a moreimportant driver of uranium price in the coming years than SMRs ultimately. THE SMR LANDSCAPE Some definitions. We follow convention and argue that SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are fission-based nuclear power plantsintended to generate electricity at a scale of <300 MW (specifically MWe). Recall that typical reactors are 1,000 MW (1 GW)such as the Westinghouse AP1000. Also recall that MWe is megawatts of electricity equivalent - a measure of power (theability to generate energy, in this case electrical energy). We also quote MWth or megawatts of thermal equivalent (the ability togenerate thermal energy). A good rule of thumb is a