电子商务在中央欧洲2026年的现状：解锁电子商务下一时代的战略优势

Unlocking strategic advantagefor the next era of e-commerce WHITE PAPER WHAT LIES AHEAD? Unveiling the futureof e-commerce E-commerceinCentralEuropehasreachedahighlevelofmaturity,withgrowthstabilizing across the regionafterperiodsofexpansionandvolatility.However,the region is nothomogeneous-markets can differwidelyinscaleandstructure.Despitethesedifferences,they increasinglysharea common trajectory in whiche-commerceisbecomingmoredefinedby its regularity in everydayconsumerpreferences.Asonlinepenetrationacross major productcategoriesmaturesandbasketsizesstabilize,the limits of traditional,product-centricoptimizationarebecomingmore visible.Competitivedynamicsarethereforeshiftingawayfromordervaluealoneandincreasinglydependonrepeatengagement,whichisultimatelydrivenbyasetoftimelessconsumerneeds. choicesand,over time,executingtransactionswithindefinedboundaries-itredefinesthepurchasejourney.Indoingso,partsofdecision-makingmove from humans to AI-drivensystems,reducingeffort,simplifyingchoices,andmakingproductrecommendationsmorerelevant. Thistransition will not emergeovernight.Instead,it will unfoldgraduallyandunevenly,withhuman-led and agent-led purchasejourneyscoexistingforyears,shapedbytrust,context,andusecase. Formerchants and ecosystemparticipants,thechallengeisnolongerwhetheragenticcommercewillmatter,but how to remain presentandrelevantasdecision-makingincreasinglyflows through intelligentintermediaries. Tosupportthisshift,wesetouttosharea clear view of how agenticcommerceis taking shape,whilegivingecosystem players the clarityandconfidencetheyneedtocompeteinthisnexteraofdigitalcommerce. Thisis where agentic commerceemerges.Today,advancesinartificialintelligenceare already influencinghowconsumersshop.Itmarksastructural shift in e-commerce byintroducinganewlayerthatreshapeshowdemandiscaptured.AsAIagentscanact on behalf of consumers-supporting discovery,narrowing NikolausTrzeschan Country Manager | Mastercard | Germany E-commerce in Central Europe is growing-and it isgrowingwithconfidence.Afteryearsshapedbypandemic-drivendistortionsandsubsequentcorrections,theregionhasentereda new phase:stable,structurally sound,andbroadlyinlinewithEuropeanandglobalbenchmarks.Thatis,initself,ameaningfulsignal. However,aggregatenumbersonlytellpartofthestory.CentralEuropeisnotasinglemarket.Itisacollectionofmarketsatfundamentallydifferentstagesofdevelopment,eachfollowing its own logic.Germany commands theregionwith unmatched scale,yet its growth dynamicsdiffersharplyfromthoseofPolandorGreece.Switzerlandhasdisproportionatelyhighper-capitaspendingrelativetoitspopulationsize.Smallermarketsrelyheavilyoncross-bordercommerceinwaystheirlargerneighborsdonot. Dr. FriedrichSchwandt CEO & FounderECDBGermany Whatunitesthemisashiftinhowgrowthiscreated.Basketsizes are stabilizing.The race for new buyers isslowing.Increasingly,thedecisiveleverisbuyingfrequency-howoften existing customers return.That shift changeswhatmerchants need to prioritize and where the realcompetitivepressurelies. Thiswhitepapermapsthatlandscape.Nottoflattenitscomplexity,but to make it easier to navigate-formerchants,platforms,andecosystemplayerswhowanttounderstandCentralEuropeonitsownterms. E-commerceinnovationisemergingunevenlyacrossregions.Forexample,inpartsofAsia,newcommercemodelsarealreadybeingtestedatscale,offeringanearlyviewintohowshoppingevolvesasintelligencebecomesembeddedanddecisionsarecompressedbyAI-supportedsystems. ForCentral Europe,the relevance lies not inreplication,butininterpretation.Thesedynamicswillunfoldatadifferentpace,shapedbylocalconsumerexpectations,regulatory frameworks,and paymentinfrastructures.Agenticcommercetakesshapeinthisspace,introducinganewlayerwhereAIagentscansupportandpotentiallyactonbehalfofconsumerswithinclearlydefinedboundaries. PeterRobejsek InCentralEurope,agenticcommerceadoptioncanbeinformedbyglobalsignalswhileremaininggroundedinregionalrealitiestoensurerelevance. Executive Vice President| Mastercard | MarketDevelopment Asia Pacific Table of contents 01The e-commerce landscape in Central Europe Sets the context by outlining how e-commerce has evolved across Central Europeand which structural patterns define the market today 02The new battleground of e-commerce Explores how growth dynamics are shifting as markets mature and which dimensionsincreasingly determine competitive advantage A world with agentic commerce Introduces agentic commerce as an emerging paradigm and examines how it graduallytakes shape across consumer preferences, technology, and the broader ecosystem The way forward: outlook & opportunities 04 Brings the analysis together by translating insights into strategic perspectiveson how various players could prepare for what lies ahead in e-commerce The e-commercelandscape in CentralEurope MARKET OVERVIEW Central Europe’s e-commercemarket returns to steady growth E-commercerevenuegrowthinCentralEurope CentralEurope’se-commerce markethasexpandedsignificantlyinrecentyears,growingfrom€1