全球电商指南：2026

Report Agenda 01 Global E-Commerce Development 02 Deep Dive: Retailers 03 Deep Dive: Markets 04 Outlook: Agentic Commerce About the Report:Our CEO’s Top 4 E-Commerce Predictions for 2026 In our report “ECDB Global E-Commerce Compass 2026”, we present the most important e-commerce data and insights on the global e-commerce market in 2026. Four findings are particularly important this year and represent the essential takeaways you shoulddefinitelyretainfrom this report: •First, global e-commerce continues to grow structurally, while the growth mix is shifting:Global revenues exceed US$5 trillionfor the first time in 2026, growing by 8.6% year-over-year. The global online share of retail reaches 25.4%, remaining a key structuralgrowth driver. However, net growth is predominantly concentrated (China and the United States accounting for 64% of globalrevenues), while relative growth shifts toward emerging markets. •Second, competitive dynamics among retailers intensify as scale and international reach become decisive:Retailerconcentration increases globally, the number of mid-sized players declines, and growth becomes more dependent on cross-borderexpansion. Platform-based ecosystems continue to outperform standalone retail models. Shopify strengthens its role as a corecommerce infrastructure, accounting for 6.2% of global E-Commerce revenues. •Third, the ‘ECDB Revenue Equation’ shows that growth is driven by buyers and buying frequency:Across markets, growth isfueled by an expanding buyer base and higher purchase frequency, while average order values and return rates remain broadly stable.However, buying frequency and average order values differ strongly between countries and categories, driven by underlying needs. •Fourth, AI-driven shopping traffic is already relevant, while agentic commerce remains uncertain:Discovery use cases aredeveloping rapidly, whereas transactional applications still require deeper system integration. Partnerships between providers andretailers are accelerating, but future models remain uncertain-making strategic flexibility and active exploration essential for retailers. In addition to these key findings, this report contains a wealth of other insights for you to discover. I hope you enjoy discovering them! CEO & Founder The Essence of the Report:ECDB‘s Ten Key Hypotheses on the E-Commerce Market 2026 GlobalE-CommerceDevelopment Global E-Commerce Development:Key Highlights, Trends, and Market Shifts in 2026 E-Commerce Growth Normalizes Post-Pandemic asRevenues Exceed US$ 5 Trillion for the First Time New Phase of Stable Growth After several volatile years markedby strong pre-pandemicexpan-sion, an exceptional pandemic-driven surge, and a subsequentshort-term slowdown, global e-commerce growth is now enteringaphase of normalization. Growth rates are stabilizing at astructurally higher steady-statelevel, reaching 7.8% in 2025 andaccelerating further to 8.6% in2026. A major milestone is reached in2026, as global e-commercerevenuesexceed US$ 5 trillionfor the first time, underscoringthe market’s long-term resilience,scale, and sustained relevance inthe global retail landscape. E-Commerce Growth Continues to Outperform Key Macro and RetailBenchmarks in 2026 Comparison of global growth forecasts across selected industry and macro indicators (2026) Global Growth Is Increasingly Concentrated in a Small Set of Marketsand Players China Dominates Global E-Commerce with a 42% Revenue Share,Followed by the US with a 22% Share in 2026 E-Commerce Revenue in the Americas, Asia, and Australia & Oceania IsConcentrated in the Top 5 Markets E-Commerce revenue of the top 5 countries per region in (2026,US$ bn) Asia Leads Global Revenue While E-Commerce Growth AcceleratesAcross Most Regions with Africa Growing Fastest Regional e-commerce revenue development, historical growth rates and forecast Europe’s Faster Growth Driven by Broad-Based Recovery While theAmericas Are Constrained by Slower U.S. Growth Rate E-Commerce Growth Continues but the Growth Mix Shifts TowardEmerging Markets E-Commerce revenue growth rate1by online share country cluster (2026) Cross-Border E-Commerce Becomes a Larger Contributor to Global GMVGrowth with the Americas Leading in Scale and Asia in Growth Global cross-border e-commerce revenue growth (imports between countries within region, US$ bn) Deep Dive:Retailers E-Commerce Retailer Development: Key Highlights and Trends for2026 The Global Top 10 Retailer Ranking Remains Largely Stable, with TikTokShowing the Strongest Rise Top 10 global retailers by total GMV (2020 vs. 2025, US$mn) Amazon andTemu/PinduoduoRank in All Regional Top 10 as GlobalPlayers Account for 6 of 10 and Russian Retailers Lead Europe’s Top 3 Scale Advantage Intensifies: Top 5 Retailers Expand Their GMV Share to56Percent in 2025 Global GMV share top 5 retailers Top 25% of Retailers Grow Significantly Faster Than the MarketAccelerating Global Concentration Surplus gr