升温中的宏观摘要

The Macro Wrap is your weekly, need-to-know guide toBarclays key macro views, implications for markets, and our Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US Please join Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Global Chairman of Research, Monday, 29 June at 9amEST to discuss our Global Outlook for Q3 2026. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Read the Research: Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Global Outlook: Solid fundamentals, fewer bargains •Rates Strategy: A global bond glut •US Equity Strategy: Upgrading into uncertainty Mitsi Munjeri*+ 44 (0) 20 3555 7266mitsidzo.munjeri@barclays.comBarclays, UK •FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook: Unwinding the dollar risk premium •The Emerging Markets Quarterly: Navigating challenges PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Read our latestBarclays Live hubs,Middle East Escalation & Robotics Revolution CONTENTS Barclays Research Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Barclays Global Economic Outlook: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 What are our views across asset classes?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Global Conferences and Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Key forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Looking ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Barclays Research Highlights Global Outlook: Solid fundamentals, fewer bargains The Q3 outlook hinges on a strong, broadening US earnings cycleoffsetby optimistic marketpricing. Growth remains intact, driven by profits, AI capex, and a firm US labor market. Butelevated oil prices, higher bond yields and richer valuations mean less room for error. We Rates Strategy: A global bond glut Ashiftfrom a global savings glut to a bond glut points to structurally higher long-term yields,reflecting persistent fiscal deficits alongside a price-sensitive buyer base. Incrementalmeasures such as shortening issuance may slow the adjustment, but are unlikely to prove US Equity Strategy: Upgrading into uncertainty Equities remain choppy as peace talks stop and start, and questions linger about AI spend,funding and monetization, higher-for-longer rates, and consumer strength. We focus on theimproving earnings outlook, revising our S&P 500 FY26 earnings estimates. FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook: Unwinding the dollar risk premium Theaffirmationof the Fed’s independence and higher-for-longer US rates imply a partial riskpremium unwind; we upgrade our USD views. AI-linked commodity FX (eg, AUD, MXN, CLP)should outperform; low-yielding Asian FX (eg, JPY, KRW) lose the most; and EM rate spreads mayneed to widen vs. the US. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research, Barclays Research Investment Science Team The Emerging Markets Quarterly: Navigating challenges Geopolitics and energy prices have dominated markets in Q2, but EM economies and assetshave remained remarkably resilient. The Fed cycle may create new challenges for EM local, butthe easing of Middle East tensions should also create scope for performance and focus on Barclays Trending Views (broadening beyond mega-cap tech) and a sustained AI-driven capex boom continue tosupport growth, jobs and investment. Concurrently, macro conditions are becoming moreconstraining: higher yields, tighter policy, and firm oil prices are raising the bar for further The global economy continues to look like a barbell, with strength in theUSandEast Asia offsettingsoftermomentum inEuropeandChina, leaving our2026 growth forecastunchanged at 3.1%.Against this backdrop, we stayoverweight equities over fixed income,supported by a durable earnings cycle and AI-led investment. Equity valuations are not Zooming in on theUS, Q1 GDP was revised up by 50bps to 2.1% (mainly due to stronger netexports), while the goods trade deficit was surprisingly wide in May, reflecting strong gains inimports and a pullback in exports. In May, the savings rate stabilised, and consumerspending reacceleratedafterasoftpatch at the start of the year; theWorld Cupmay alsoprovide a temporary boost to spending. Core PCE for May was slightlysofterthan expected,while core-services ex-housing rose 0.5% in May and 3.9% YoY: a two-year high. Lookingforward, we forecast 100k non-farm job gains in June and expect unemployment to stick at As the heatwave spreads throughEurope, the macro data remains fairly subdued. Euro area PMIs improved, rising 1.0pt to beat expectations reflecting a recovery in the private sector inJune and some easing in input and output pricing. Averaged over Q2, PMI is c. 2.4 pointsbelow the Q1 average, at levels consistent with, at best, stagnant real GDP. From acredit perspect