全球奢侈品行业：双速时代下的两极分化消费图景

Two Luxury Consumers Dickens'A Tale of Two Cities'captures a period of contradiction:theFrencharistocracyindulging inopulenceandprivilege,thepeasantryexperiencingpovertyandoppression.While2026 is thankfully not 18th centuryFrance,shifting class dynamicsremainmoretopical than ever,from theUSK-shaped economytothe squeezed Chinesemiddleclass.Inthisnote,weexaminetheimplicationsofconsumerpolarisation on globalluxurygoods.Consumerpolarisationhasacceleratedpost-Covidandwould reducethenumber luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita +44 20 71700540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA Consumer Polarisation-Part 2). Middle-class aspirational consumers in the West haveretrenched under the combined impact of cost-of-living inflation and aggressive luxuryprice increases,whiletheir counterparts in China arefacing additional pressurefrom thereal estate market downturn. In aggregate, this has resulted in c.70 million consumersexitingthemarket since2023.Meanwhile,a smallcohortofultra-wealthyViCs,supportedbytech-driven wealth creation and gains in financial assets, has increased its share oftotal luxury spending,with the top 0.1% now accounting for c.23%of global expenditure.Despiteaveragespending levelsthatare>25Oxthoseofaspirationalconsumers,thescaleof the aspirational segment implies that it wouldrequire heroic assumptions regardingincremental spending by top-tier consumers to offsetthe loss in demand. +85221232628 +442076766822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Alix Turner +44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com View-Social, political and geopolitical dynamics).A recovery ofmiddle class spending,particularly in China, couldtake the sectorback to the historical growth profile of 6-8%OsG,supportedbypositivevolumesandbalancedprice-mix.However,if thewealthinequality continues to deteriorate, where growth skews toward ViCs, brands will like relymore on price and mix,as volumegrowth willikely beweak or negative.Recent patterns -flatsectorOSG,tradingdowninaspirationalsegments,andunderperformanceofbrandsmost exposed to aspirational demand -suggestthe industry is already living aspects of thesecond scenario,evenasthepossibilityofamiddle-class reacceleration remains open. Sellingmoretoexistingconsumerswillrequiresustained relevanceandahigherinnovationtempo.Asthe inflowofnewmiddle-class consumers slows,brandsmustleanmore heavily on their installed base of repeat clients and ViCs,who already own theiconic essentials and will only part with additional money for genuinely new and compellingproducts. This is pushing brands to accelerate innovation, whether through categoryexpansion,product refresh or increased brand investment,to remain differentiated,interesting and culturally relevant (see Global Luxury Goods: The Battle for Attention andGlobal Luxury Goods: The accelerating loop of Story-Social-Shop). Continued on the next page... perceived intrinsic value and discretion, while also benefiting fromfavourablereplacement rates andvalue/m3,arelikelyto emergeas long-termwinners.Ashigh-end consumers become more important to overall growth, the abilityto offer trulyuniqueproductsattheverytopofthepricespectrumallowsbrandstosubstitutetensof thousands of entry-level transactions with a smaller number of ultra-high-ticket sales.Products witha morediscreet character should also be advantaged in a more watchfulsocial environment, which is a likely consequence if the wealth gap continues to widen.positionedtooutperformpeers. thriveunderboth scenarios (see Richemont: Best Idea First Quarter2026-Winner InA Structurally Appealing Category.Outperform).Its flagship houses,Van Cleef &Arpelsand Cartier, combine substantial scale withoutstanding price depth,enablingthegroupto serve a broadbase ofaspirational clients at accessiblepricepoints whilealso capturingvery high-ticket jewellery sales that can effectively substitute for lost volumes if polarisationintensifies. At the same time, its hard luxury focus delivers high perceived value, strongvalue/m3,and arelatively discreetaesthetic,closely aligning with the structuralattributesthat matter most in a world of heightened inequality, social scrutiny and tighter middle-classinflows. Analternativeinvestmentstrategywouldbetoback specialists at both ends ofthespectrum. High-end players such as Ferrari, Zegna and Brunello Cucinelli should be wellpositioned to surf the wave of wealth creation and resilience at the high-end (see GlobalLuxuryGoods:Preparingforconsumerpolarisation),whileentry-priceplayers,suchasInditex,should receivean ocean of consumers that are trading down (see:Retail x Luxury:LVMH vs.ITX-The King of the Jungle &the Chameleon Queen, and Global Luxury Goods:The Prosecco of Soft Luxury). INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Questions abound on thelong-term rate,trajectory and drivers of global luxury goodsdemand. If Chinawastogoback to producingwealth to a largerand largeraspirational consumer audience,global luxurygoods wouldgoback to being a global middle class play. In that context, best in