全球钢铁转型情景：中国、欧盟和美国

Scenarios for theGlobal Steel Transition Acknowledgements We are grateful toVarun Sivaram andLindsayIversen(Council on Foreign Relations)forco-hosting the United Statesscenariosworkshop in Washington,DC;Marta Torres Gunfaus(IDDRI)for co-hosting the European Union workshop in Brussels; andProfessorWang Pu(ChineseAcademy of Sciences)for hosting the workshop in Beijing. We extend our sincere thanks to all workshop participants and interviewees for their time,insights, and thoughtful engagement. All discussions were held under Chatham House Rule, andparticipants’ contributions wereinvaluable to the development of the scenarios and analysispresented in this report.The views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and donot necessarily reflect those of participantsor our funders. Authors Joe Morrisroe, S-CurveEconomicsCICSimon Sharpe, S-Curve EconomicsCICAlister Wilson, Waverley Consultants © Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Aboutus S-Curve Economics CIC is a non-profit research organisationfocused on advancing theunderstanding of the economics and diplomacy of the energy transition. Our analysis focuses onthe power, road transport, and steel sectors, and cross-cutting issues of economics, policyappraisal, and diplomacy. Find out more atwww.scurveeconomics.org. Waverley Consultants isa group of practitioners in futures thinking, specialising in horizonscanning, scenario planning, and strategy development. Its clients include governments,universities, and businesses.Find out more at:https://www.waverley.cloud/ Contents 1Executive Summary4 2Scenarios for theglobalsteel transition9 •The EuropeanUnion’s steel transition12•China’s steel transition19•The United States’ steel transition28•Comparisons across the three regions32 3A shared vision of the global steel transition 36 •Characterisingthe current system of steel production and trade39•Envisioning a desirable future system41•Identifying the levers for transformative change43•International cooperation to accelerate the transition48 4Conclusions andimplications for policy53 Appendices •Appendix A:Narrative scenarios for theEuropeanUnion•Appendix B:Narrative scenarios forChina•Appendix C:Narrative scenarios for theUnited States Executive Summary The iron and steel sector,oneofthe most emissions-intensive and highly tradedindustriesglobally, faces dual challenges.Conventionalsteelproductionisundergoingsignificant disruption,asovercapacitycuts into profitsandnew tariffsreshapetrade flows.At the same time, the sectoris on the cuspof a wider transformation,as policymakers and industry seek to shifttowardsnewtechnologies as part of effortstoaddressclimate change. In this context, policymakersand industry decision-makersface acomplexchallenge.They muststeertheir industries through the competitivepressuresin the conventionalsteelmarkets,whilesimultaneouslyaiming torealisethe opportunitiesand manage the risksofatechnologytransition. Thisreportsummarises the findings of scenario exercises held amongpolicymakers,researchers,industry representatives and othersteel expertsineach ofChina, the European Union and theUnited States, as well as aworkshop involvingexperts from the three regions.Theseexercisesexplored different possible futures for national steel industries in the context oftheglobaltransition to near-zero emission steelmaking. The internationalworkshop, facilitated using theThree Horizons framework,exploredhowinternational cooperation could shapethistransition. Diverse possible futures The scenariosillustrated a diverse range of possible futures for each region’s steel industry. European stakeholders were uncertain about their industry’s ability to access low-cost cleanelectricity and hydrogen, and unsure whether the EU could pursue a coherent industrial strategy.They could imagine European steelmakers succeeding in aGreen Multilateralismscenariowherethe EU develops strategic partnerships to import green iron and cooperates with other majoreconomies to create global markets for clean steel. But this was seen as less plausible than aFortress Europescenario where a protectionist EUachieves decarbonisation within its ownborders but fails to shift the global market in line with its climate change goals.They could alsoenvisage aManagedDeclinescenario whereproducers inotherregionssuch asChina and theMiddle Eastmovemorequicklyto adopt the new technologies,leaving Europe behind. Chinese participants were confident in their industry’s technological capability to produce cleanprimary steel,but unsure how much demand for it would exist both domestically andinternationally.They alsofaced uncertainties regarding conventional high-emission steel. Theseincludedhow much growthin demandwould be driven by other fast-developing economies,howopenglobal markets would remain toChina’s output,and how long domestic overcapacity wouldpersist.They saw aTechnologicalForesightscenario, where Ch