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GLOBAL INTRODUCTION Air freight markets in Q2 2026 are navigating a volatile recovery following the Middle Eastconflict that erupted in late February. Rates surged dramatically in March and April as airspaceclosures grounded Gulf carriers and eliminated critical transit capacity, but have shown early Global air cargo spot rates surged +30% year-on-year in April to $3.34 per kg to reach theirhighest level since October 2022, according to Freightos data. The sharp quarterly increase Demand has been mixed. IATA reported strong 11.2% year-on-year growth in February 2026,but this reflected Lunar New Year effects and pre-conflict momentum. March saw a 4.8% Capacity remains the binding constraint, with global air cargo capacity down 4.7% year-on-year in April according to IATA data, driven by Gulf hub closures. Middle Eastern airlineslike Emirates and Qatar Airways have begun restoring operations in May. However, even if Jet fuel prices have been the other major factor, which have doubledsince the war started.Although prices eased from March peaks, they remain elevated. For Q2 as a whole, capacityconstraints and fuel volatility have defined the market, with the ceasefire offering only tentative Q2 2026 air freight rates surged to multi-year highs, driven primarily by capacity disruptionsfrom the Middle East conflict rather than organic demand growth. Headhaul rates averaged$3.7/kg in May, up 35.85% year-on-year and 26.56% quarter-on-quarter. Backhaul rates reached The rate spike began in late February and accelerated through March and April. The mostdramatic increases occurred on routes departing Dubai, where rates tripled to $5.44/kg according to WorldACD analysis. Three factors drove these movements. First, Gulf airspaceclosures eliminated a substantial share of Asia-Europe capacity. Second, jet fuel pricesmore than doubled during the height of the conflict, with carriers passing through war-risk WORLD AIRPORTS INDEX Air cargo demand in Q2 2026 started strong but faced significant headwinds as the MiddleEast conflict unfolded. IATA data shows February 2026 global demand rose 11.2% year-on-year, supported by Lunar New Year pre-positioning and strong manufacturing sentiment, with in March, while Middle Eastern carriers showed a contraction of 54.3%. Asia-Pacific carriersrecorded 5.4% growth, driven by continued exports and semiconductor shipments. North The world airports Index for Q1 2026 showed overall volumes down 1.6 points year-on-yearand 16.4 points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting post-peak seasonal patterns and early conflictimpacts. The conflict’s impact on Gulf airports was severe. ACI Asia-Pacific reported that ninemajor Middle East airports collectively lost approximately 620,000 tonnes of cargo across Air cargo capacity in Q2 2026 contracted sharply as the Middle East conflict eliminated criticalhub infrastructure and belly capacity. IATA data shows international available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK) down 6.8% year-on-year in March 2026. Cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) fell The Middle East conflict created an acute capacity shock. Emirates, the largest airline in theMiddle East, suspended all operations from Dubai until March 2, while Etihad halted Abu flight cancellations across seven Middle Eastern airports on March 1 alone. This matteredcritically because belly capacity remains the backbone of air cargo supply. The region’s role asa connecting hub for Asia-Europe flows magnified the impact beyond local markets. Recovery However, Willie Walsh, director general, International Air Transport Association (IATA), warnedthat “it will still take a period of months toget back to where supply needs to be”, adding that Freighter capacity additions have been limited by aircraft delivery delays and an ageing globalfleet, leaving the market structurally dependent on belly capacity restoration. Jet fuel prices in Q2 2026 experienced extreme volatility driven by the Middle East conflict andStrait of Hormuz disruptions. May 2026 average jet fuel index values reached 470.4 globally, up275.8 points (+141%) year-on-year and 180.8 points quarter-on-quarter. While values declinedfrom April peaks, the quarterly increase reflected dramatic spikes during the conflict’s height. The Strait of Hormuz closure was particularly impactful, as the waterway accounts for 20%of global oil shipments and approximately 25% of seaborne oil trade. By the week ending 22ndMay, IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed the global average at $159.85/barrel, down 1.7% Airlines responded by implementing or increasing war-risk surcharges, with fuel costs reaching25-30% of operating expenses according to IATA estimates. The U.S. EIA revised its 2026 Brentcrude forecast to $96/barrel in April, up from $79/barrel in March, citing ongoing Middle East SENTIMENT INDEX In Q2-26, sentiment on the Asia to North America West Coast air freight route tilts stronglytowards rising rates, with 73.1% of respondents expecting an increase over the n