纯碱周报：供需过剩格局延续，持续压制纯碱价格。

期货研究报告 2026年6月29日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：纯碱——中期震荡 供应端：纯碱周度产量回落，总量维持相对高位；重碱周度产量小幅回落，整体高位震荡，轻碱周度产量继续回落，周度产量持续走弱；供应过剩格局延续但整体放缓。 张秀峰—化工研究员从业资格证号：Z0011152投资咨询证号：F0289189联系电话：0571-28132619邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com ###—###研究员从业资格证号：投资咨询证号：需求端：浮法玻璃+光伏玻璃周产量小幅回升，重碱需求对纯碱支撑相对较弱；碳酸锂68.65%开工率，对纯碱价格有一定支撑；需求整体偏弱格局不改。 联系电话：邮箱：库存端：周度库存小幅累库，库存高位173.24万吨（+3.22），重碱库存66.02万吨（+0.34），低于去年同期，轻碱库存107.22万吨（+2.88），库存高位。 成本利润：上周纯碱氨碱法成本小幅回落，纯碱行业持续亏损。 核心观点：纯碱产能过剩，重碱重碱需求止跌，轻碱需求维持，库存历史高位震荡，轻重碱库存分化，重碱库存持续走弱（实际需求并未改善，库存或从厂库转移至贸易商或者下游企业），轻碱进一步累库至新高。供需偏弱格局压制纯碱价格，纯碱价格持续走弱，同时因氨碱法长期亏损，联碱法处于生产成本附近，限制其下行空间，重点关注纯碱开工率若持续低于75%，或短期止跌。 操作建议：暂时观望。 风险点：玻璃冷修超预期（利空），纯碱落后产能提前出清（利多）。 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、行情回顾.....................................................................................................................................................4二、期现结构&价差.........................................................................................................................................5三、供给..............................................................................................................................................................5四、需求..............................................................................................................................................................6五、库存..............................................................................................................................................................8六、成本&利润.................................................................................................................................................9 表目录 表1：纯碱期现&价差...........................................................................................................................................3表2：纯碱供需结构..............................................................................................................................................3表3：纯碱成本......................................................................................................................................................3表4：纯碱利润......................................................................................................................................................3表5：纯碱库存......................................................................................................................................................3 图目录 图1：纯碱主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图2：玻璃主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图3：纯碱主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图4：玻璃主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图5：纯碱月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图6：玻璃月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图7：纯碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图8：重碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图9：轻重比........................................................................................................................................................6图10：纯碱周损失量（万吨）..........................................................................................................................6图11：重碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图12：轻碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图13：玻璃厂内库存（万重量箱）....................................................................................................................6图14：玻璃厂内总库存（万重量箱）...............................................................................................................6图15：浮法玻璃生产成本（元/吨）.................................................................................................................7图16：浮法玻璃利润（元/吨）........................................................................................................................7图17：浮法玻璃开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................7图18：浮法玻璃日熔量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7图19：光伏玻璃开工率（%）...............................................