泡泡玛特THE MONSTERS美发沙龙系列产品发售反馈疲软，需求疲劳风险上升

China Retail/WholesaleTrade Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback HighlightsGrowing Risk of Demand Fatigue SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 PopMartlaunchedTHEMONSTERSHairSalonseriesonlineonJune25andoffline onJune26inChina,withtheblindboxpricedatRMB159.Althoughthecompanyhas not confirmed whether this series belongs to Labubu 4.0, the launch timingsuggests it isoneof PopMart'skeyreleasesthisyear.TheproductwaslaunchedaroundtheWorldCupperiod,whenLabubureceivedglobalsports-eventexposureinWorld Cupopening ceremony,and shortlyafterLisa's endorsement onthisproduct series,both of which likely lifted investor and consumer expectations. However, initial marketfeedback appears much weaker than expected: On the first day of launch, only two to three of the seven designs traded ata premium in the secondary market, including the secret edition, whileseveral standard editions fell much below the official retail price. Two lesspopular editions were trading at around RMB107,representing a cleardiscount to the RMB159 retail price.This contrasts with previous IPlaunches,such as TwinkleTwinkle,wheremost designswas priced atpremium during the firstfew days after launch. SalesmomentumonChinae-commerceplatformsalsoappearssofterthanprevious popular THE MONSTERS and Twinkle Twinkle launches, asinventory did not sell out immediately.Based on our rough calculations,first-daysell-throughonDouyinandTaobao/Tmallwasonlyaround30-50%ofpreviousmajorIPlaunchesin2026.ItindicatesapotentialsalespressureforPopMarttoface inQ2onwardswhen higherbase effectskick in. Social media feedback has also turned more negative, with users citingweaker designs and limited innovation versus earlier versions. Thissuggests collectors maybe becoming more selective and rational,ratherthan purchasing every new Pop Mart release indiscriminately. HairSalonlaunchsignals risingrisktofutureIPsales Overall,THEMONSTERSHairSalonlaunchsuggests thatPopMart's recentIPcyclemaybeenteringamorefragilestage.Despitestrongmarketingsupportandhigh pre-launch expectations,including World Cup-related collaboration, earlysell-through, secondary market pricing, and social media feedback all point to aweaker-than-expected reception.More importantly,theweaknessappearedduringtheinitiallaunchwindow,whenlimitedsupplyshouldhavesupportedresaleprices and market sentiment, indicating rising risk to future iP launches. If further Retail/WholesaleTradePop Mart supply,secondarymarketprices could faceadditional pressure andreinforce thecreates downside risk not only to the Hair Salon series, but also to investorconfidence in PopMart's abilityto sustain future IPmomentum. 2026 and more significant operating deleverage, leading to RMB 1.15bn in netprofit. We maintain our Sell rating, with a Target Price of HKs140. Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Pop Mart dominates China's pop toy market as its largest and fastest-growing player, with proprietary productsaccounting for over 90% of its revenue. The companyleverages strong IP development and an expansive globalretail footprint, with its networks exceeding 700 stores bythe end of 2025. The "Monster’ (LABUBU) series, its flagshipIP, has achieved global recognition, establishing itself as CashFlow(CNYm)Cash flow from operations Balance Sheet (CNYm) Key Company Metrics SammiXu+852 2203 5415sammi.xu@db.com Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Investment Thesis Established in 2010, Pop Mart is a China-based designer toy company globallyrecognized for popularizing the"blind box" collectibles model. By strategically lev-eraging proprietary and licensed Intellectual Properties (IPs)-such as"The Mon-sters"(Labubu)-the companyhas fostered a passionate international collectorbase,integratingartand design withagamifiedpurchasing experience.Whiletheexceptional performance of Labubu was critical to the company's success in2024-2025, recent weakening trends for the IP suggest potential uncertainty for2026 sales forecasts. We assign a SELL rating following a decelerating trendobservedin4Q25andthesubsequent2025annualresults.Althoughwecommendmanagement's strong IP execution in driving international expansion,we believesales began a downturn in 4Q25and will continue to decline sequentially.In ourview,themarkethasnotyetfactoredinthis salesweakness ortheresulting operat-ing deleverage driven bydeclining same-store sales across bothChina and over-seas markets. Valuation We use the discounted cash flow (DCF)method to value Pop Mart.OurDCFassumptions include:2%risk-free rate,1.1beta,a6%marketriskpremiumandaWACCof7.9%.WeemploytheP/Emethodasacrosscheck.OurDCF-basedtargetprice implies a 14x 2026E P/E. Risks UpsideRisks:(1)Fasterthan expected existingIPsalesmomentumglobally.(2)Anew blockbuster IP introduced sooner than anticipated. (3) strong progress ofLabubumovie&otherinnovativeproducttypes. Retail/Wholesale TradePop Mart Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest subjectof thisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclos