韩国必需消费品股票：别无出路？

No way out? market significantly (y-t-d down 4% vs.theKOSPlup 95%)+We think the weakdomestic consumption is more than priced HeadofConsumer&RetailResearch,AsiaPacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoui Securities Branchkaren.choi@kr.hsbc.com+8223706 8781Sophia Jung* in the shares; time to revisit some of the laggards Associate,ConsumerResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchsophia.jung@kr.hsbc.com+822 37068774 +WepreferSamyangFoods (Buy);adjustTPsforfivestocksonestimatechanges underperformed the market y-t-d (down 4% vs. KOSPI up 95%)-which may not be asurprise.Domestic consumption, maybe exceptfor luxury, remains sluggish,assuggested by the monthly retail sales data. Bio-polarisation of spending continues. Assuch,weforecast2Q earnings wouldunlikelybeat consensus expectations,exceptforSamyang Foods and KT&G where overseas contribution continues to rise.We believeweak earnings are more than priced in the shares. We continue to prefer companieswithoverseasexpansionmomentum.Seefigure1for2Qpreview. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Weprefer Samyang Foods Among our staple coverage,we like Samyang Foods (Buy) the most given its long-termsustainablegrowthoutlook.Wethinktherecentpullbackprovidesenhancedopportunity to buy, while another factory addition in China is a long-awaited catalystfor the company. We also like KT&G (Buy)-even after the recent rally, it still offersc10-11% shareholder returns (Figure 63) over 2026-28e and we expect mid-to-long-term value-up details to be announced in 2H26.Separately,we forecast strongerearnings momentum for Orion (Buy) in 1H and CJCJ (Buy) in 2H26. WhileNongshim (Hold) also features an overseas growth story,we believe it will likelycome at a cost, and therefore we prefer Samyang Foods. The beer industry seemsweak,and we remain neutral about HiteJinro (Hold).We expect combined OP of ourcoverage to rise 7% y-0-y in 1H and grow 21% y-0-y in 2H 2026. Valuation and risks No country for bears We update our 2026-28 estimatesforthe sixstocks as we reflect 1Q26 actualresults, and we adjust our TPs for five stocks accordingly,still with 2026 as ourvaluation base year.Our ratings are unchanged.See companypages for valuationdetails and key risks.2Q26 results will be announced from early August. The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer ofreport:The Hongkongand ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch Disclosures&Disclaimer This report mustberead withthedisclosuresand theanalystcertifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source:Bloomberg.HSBC estimates Welowerour2026-28 OP estimatesby c1-4%as we revisit our assumptions and exclude Feed & Care division to our consolidated earnings. For the Food division (with 65% salescontribution in 2025excluding CJ Logistics),we nowforecast 2025-28 sales CAGR of 3.9%(from3.4%)witha4.5-4.9%OPmargin(from4.9-5.2%)drivenbysalesgrowthinoverseasmarkets, despiteweak domesticgrowthand costpressure.Inprocessedfood, approximately60% of sales are from overseas (mainly led by the US). 4.2-4.9% OP margin over 2026-28 (from 4.3-5.0%), with 7% sales growth in 2026e (from 7%decline) followed by 5% annual sales growth in 2027-28e (1% growth p.a.) due to sequentialimprovement in contract prices and margin improvements in speciality products despite weak1Qresults. division has been sold in 2025, so it is no longer consolidated to earnings. Previously, ourestimates were OP margin of 3.4-3.6% in 2026-28 considering the firm's cost-cutting effortsincludingrestructuringwith3%annualgrowthoverthesameperiod. Valuation We continueto use amultiple-based SOTPapproachwithavaluationbaseyearof 2026.For(unchanged), using the average of the low-end in each year during 2010-11 of peer Ajinomotobefore its bio division spin-off in 2011 (2802 JP, not rated).Following our estimate revisions, welower our TP to KRW270,000 (from KRW300,000), which implies 45.3%upside, and wemaintain our Buy rating. Our TP implies 2027e P/E of 10x (vs 7-30x since 2017). recovery orincreasing competition;2)an inabilityto raiseproductprices,orstronger-than-expected rawmaterial prices, or continuation of weakKRW vs.USD; 3)a slower-than-expectedlysine price recovery (or otherbio products)price;and 4)overseas business risk in majormarkets, such as Us tariffs. Orion(271560KP,Buy,TPKRW170kunchanged) We raise our 2026-28 OP estimates by c5% to reflect monthly earnings. We revise our forecasts bycountriesasbelowTop-line: We now expect China sales to grow by 20% (from 10%) in 2026e despite weak China consumption.WeexpectVietnamsalesgrowthof15%y-o-y(unchanged)andRussiaby30%(unchanged). We continue to forecast Korea sales growth of 3% in 2026e. We also view India as apotential area of growth opportunity for Orion. (unchanged), and Russia 10-20% (uncha