高通：分析师日观点及问题解答

Qualcomm (QCOM) - Thoughts on analyst day, and answers to ourquestions Qualcomm held their analyst day in NYC yesterday,with presentations from CristianoAmon (CEO), Akash Palkhiwala (CFO), Nakul Duggal (GM of Auto, IoT, and Robotics), andTony Pialis (GM, Data Center, formerly CEO of Alphawave). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com The day emphasized the company’s continued diversification strategy with aparticular focus on Datacenter (which is really all anyone wanted to hear about).Qualcomm will be going to market with a fairly full suite of datacenter products includingconnectivity (via the recent Alphawave acquisition), custom ASICs, accelerators, andCPUs, leveraging what they believe is a unique memory architecture (which they call HighBandwidth Compute) that uses LPDDR stacks instead of HBM or SRAM with (supposedly)substantially better bandwidth/capacity per watt. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com While the presentations themselves felt a bit heavy on the marketing, the numbersshared at the end were on the surface quite positive,with the company calling for$5B in FY27 datacenter revenues and $15B by FY29 (both, we believe, above whisperexpectations), as well as raising FY29 auto outlook to $10B. Overall they appear to beguiding for a FY29 model of ~$65B in revenue and ~$18 in EPS; we believe a ~$15 FY29EPS is still possible under more pessimistic scenarios as well. That being said, at the sell-side Q&A following the event management alsoappeared to further talk down smartphone expectations(suggesting android revenuesflat to down in FY27 plus AAPL roll-off with total handset down $5B-$6B YoY), as well asmargin headwinds (datacenter products are below corp avg chipset GMs, and opex will begoing up as the company invests in the roadmap). Hence, we believe that even with the addition of $5B in new datacenter outlook2027 EPS estimates probably still need to come down rather than up, and the nextfew quarters may continue to be challenging while we wait for datacenter to start ramping. We are somewhat torn here. On the one hand, many companies have crafted well-received datacenter stories, and even a small share of a big pie would be meaningful here,with the overall diversification story continuing to play out. On the other hand, the reasonsthat we downgraded the stock to Market Perform three months ago (namely concernsover potentially substantial smartphone headwinds in an increasingly challenging memoryenvironment) are clearly happening with the medium-term outlook likely to experiencemore pain first. And with the stock set to open close to $225 it is hard to argue that a goodamount of the 2029 profile (still a ways away) is not already starting to get priced in. But we take our numbers up today, adding in datacenter and upping our auto/IoTwhile further cutting our handset outlook and adjusting margins;our FY27 EPS risesa little (and remains below Street), with FY28 up more; we increase multiple from 14x to20x given the mix shift, and raise our PT to $235 (old $140).We rate Qualcomm MP. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS QCOM (MP, $235): Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds and numbers still appear high though thedatacenter narrative sounds promising. DETAILS Qualcomm held their analyst day in NYC yesterday, (titled “Scaling AI across the connected edge and data center”), withpresentations from Cristiano Amon (CEO), Akash Palkhiwala (CFO), Nakul Duggal (EVP and Group GM, Automotive, Industrialand Embedded IoT, and Robotics), and Tony Pialis (EVP and GM, Data Center, formerly CEO of Alphawave). On Tuesday we highlighted 10 questions to ask at the meeting. Below are the answers we heard. Management provided new overall targets for the company as well as for each segment (Handsets, Auto, IoT, andDatacenter), through FY29. We estimate Qualcomm will generate ~$65B in revenue with handsets contributing ~1/3of overall revenue.Management expects Android handsets to grow at ~5% CAGR from FY26 through FY29, implying ~$20Bin handset revenue (as Apple will be fully out of the numbers by then). Licensing is forecast to grow in line with 4G/5G units overthe same time. IoT is expected at $14B+ (split between ~$6B in Personal AI and Compute and ~$8B in Industrial, Networkingand Robotics), implied a tick above the $14B target from last investor day. As expected, Auto targets were taken up from $8Bpreviously to $10B (~26% FY25-29 CAGR), driven by a strong and growing pipeline. Lastly, the highlight was QCOM’s newDatacenter business (spread across Connectivity, Custom Silicon, AI Accelerators and CPUs) which the company expects togenerate $15B+ in FY29 revenue (and ~$5B in FY27). Taken together that implies overall ~$65B in FY29 revenue (Exhibit 1),a meaningful increase from ~$50B we had estimated following their last investor day purely driven by Datacenter (and st