Xponential Fitness（XPOF）：分析师日观点：对未来的深思熟虑的方法。正确的关注点

USA | Lifestyle & Growth PlatformsXponential Fitness Analyst Day Takes: A Thoughtful Approach forthe Future. The Right FOCUS. We found XPOF mgmt demonstrated strategic leadership throughout theAnalyst Day presentation, offering a balanced approach to drive profitable andsustainable growth across brands. New leaders shared precise details, with arealistic outlook and solid long term growth algo. With shares cheap comparedto peers, multiple expansion is likely as the company executes on its priorities. FOCUS On a Quality Bench of Talent.The cornerstone of XPOF 2.0 is the assembly of a high-caliberleadership team to drive the company’s next chapter. Key members from this reshaped bench—President of North America John Kawaja, COO Tim Weiderhoft, CMO Louise Ocasion, and CFOJohn Meloun—bring extensive experience and expertise. Their presentations demonstrated strongalignment on strategic priorities and a clear vision for scalable, franchisee-focused growth. The A-Team positions XPOF to execute with greater precision and LT discipline. FOCUS On the Core 4 Brands.~90% of XPOF’s system-wide sales (SWS) come from its corebrands, which generated $160M in adjusted EBITDA in 2024 before accounting for corp overheadcosts. Mgmt emphasized performance trends across each core modality, supported by metricssuch as AUVs, studio openings, and SWS growth. This disciplined focus is expected to enhancesystem stability while still offering significant runway for expansion across each brand. FOCUS On the Franchisee FIRST.XPOF is adopting a franchisee-first mindset and is focused onsupporting the franchisee every step of the way. The co. is taking greater control over franchiseeselection to ensure higher-quality candidates, streamlining onboarding and training, and reducingbuild-out costs, XPOF is enhancing franchisee economics and LT success. This cultural shift willdrive more stable, organic growth across the network. FOCUS On Being a Better Franchisor.As XPOF enters its next phase of growth—XPOF 2.0—it’s focused on building a stronger foundation to support franchisees. Under new leadership,the company is scaling field operations, enhancing training, and investing in technology. Theseinfrastructure upgrades are designed to boost efficiency, reinforce franchisee support, andaccelerate openings. The Right FOCUS Creates a More Stable L-Term.XPOF has outlined a LT growth algorithmtargeting 10% net new studio openings, MSD-HSD% SWS growth, HSD-LDD% revenue growth, 10%adj. EBITDA growth, 40–45% adj. EBITDA margin, and levered FCF conversion of 50–60%. Webelieve XPOF’s renewed focus on core brands, franchisee health, and productivity could position itto achieve these targets and reestablish its attractive growth profile with improved stability. Randal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.com Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.com Better FOCUS Should Lead to Higher Valuation.XPOF currently trades at ~5x EV/EBITDA FY’25,a discount to peers like EWCZ (8x), MCW (11x), and PLNT (18x), despite key strategic initiativesunderway. We believe this valuation gap presents upside potential as execution improves. Kylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.com Carlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.com Ty-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.com Mantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.com Mina Solujic * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4298 | msolujic@jefferies.com The Long View: Xponential Fitness Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •We believe XPOF's portfolio of Scaled and Growth brands alongside itsrespective domestic and international expansion opportunities providesinvestors with a leading boutique fitness franchisor with ample potential tofurther improve its market share. Downside Scenario,$7, -20% Upside Scenario,$40, +358% Base Case,$26, +197% •Deterioration of the macro environmentpressureschurn rates and also results inslower-than-expected unit development.•Softer margin performance primarily drivenbyweaker top-line results(lower AUVs,membership churn)•Increased competition puts pressure on XPOF'sgrowth brands.•New competition in both traditional gyms andboutique fitness studios puts pressure on theXPOF portfolio.•$7 Downside PT,based on F'26E adjustedEBITDA of ~$119M; ~5x EV/EBITDA. •Better-than-expected unit growth driven by amore favorable macro environment as well asinternational expansion efforts.•Overall top-line growth exceeds LT outlook asa result of increased memberships and AUVs(and better unit growth).•Cost improvements recognized quicker thananticipated, driven by increased efficiencies andbetter top-line growth.•$40 Upside PT, based on F'26E adjusted EBITDAof ~$161M; ~10x EV/EBITDA. •Mid-teens % unit growth (on average) driven byfurther densification in the U.S. and internationalexpansion.•M-HSD% comp growth and HSD%-