印度金融：持银行牌照是否值得？

India Financials: Is a banking license worth it? prominencewhen the RBlopeneda licensing window.Atthetime,~26 entities applied,butonly two-Bandhan andIDFC-secured licenses.In hindsight,missingtheopportunityappearstohavebeenadvantageousformany.Overthesubsequentdecade,mostNBFCsthat did not convert have generated superior investorreturns, outperforming not only thelicensewinnersbutalso severalleadingbanks.In contrast,institutionsthattransitioned intobanks (withAU Bankasanotableexception)havegenerallystruggledtocreatesustainedshareholdervalue.This reportexamines the drivers behind these divergent outcomes andwhatmayshapetrajectoriesgoingforward. +912268421407pranav.gundlapalle@bernsteinsg.com +912268421442ishan.mittal@bernsteinsg.com +912268421456anirudh.gupta@bernsteinsg.com Thegap betweenpromise and reality:The rationale for conversion was compelling-accessto lower-costdeposits,improvedprofitability,and amorestableregulatoryframework. However, this advantage has proven difficult to realize. - Cost of funds benefit has been elusive: Over time, the cost of funds gap betweenbanks and NBFCs has narrowed significantly,reducing the intended benefit of conversionNewly converted banks, despite investing heavily in deposit franchises, have oftenhad to offer higher rates to gain market share, resulting in only modest funding costimprovements. -Regulatory burdengrows: While the costadvantage remained elusive,regulatoryrequirements have imposed material and ongoing costs.CRR, SLR,and Priority SectorLending (PSL) dilute yields and constrain balance sheet flexibility. PSL obligations, inparticular,have proven onerous,often requiring exposureto lower risk-adjustedyieldsegments or the purchase of PSLCs.These costs are structural, recurring,and difficult tooffset. - Industry trends favored NBFCs: Over the past decade, system credit growth hasbeen driven primarily by retail lending,especially among new-to-credit customers. In thissegment, NBFCs'agiledistribution and customeracquisition capabilities outweighedbanks'funding advantages.Additionally,many newlyconvertedbanksfacedstrategicchallenges, including the need to build liabilities franchises from scratch, given the limiteddepositpotential oftheirexistingloancustomers. -Otherfactors: Banks appearto face higher regulatory scrutinyand punitive actions,adding operational risk.Further,the introduction of EBLR has increased NIM and earningsvolatility for banks. NBFC to bank is not necessarily an upgrade: Conversion is not an obvious choice today.Our analysis suggests a potential RoA drag of~120 bps post-conversion, largely drivenby PSL. To offset this, NBFCs would need a 110-120 bps funding cost reduction-anuncertain outcome.Conversion is viable onlywhere (1)portfolios are PSL-aligned,(2)depositfranchisescanscalequickly,and(3)smallerbalancesheetsallowfastertransitionAUBankstandsoutasanexception,havingsuccessfullynavigatedtheshift,benefitingfrom some of these conditions holding true forit (We don't cover Bandhan Bank, IDFC FirstBank and AU SFB). INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS We rate Axis, HDFC and IIB as Outperform; ICICI, KMB and SBI as Market-Perform. Amongst AHFCs, we rate Homefirst,Aadhar, Aptus as Outperform; Aavas and PNB HFas Maket-Perform.Amongst NBFCs, we rate Bajaj Finance and SBI Cards asUnderperform. We also rate Paytm as Outperform. Linkstootherrecentreports: 17Jun2026-India Financials:How retail underwritingworks -Key takeaways from our webinar10 Jun 2026-India Financials:PVBs vs. PSBs (4/n)-Beginning of the End of Outperformance10 Jun 2026-RBI's FCNR Push:Implications for Banks,Bonds and the INR8 Jun 2026 - India Financials: Do PVBs have an underwriting edge in retail lending?4 Jun 2026 -India Financials: Where are the margins headed? (1/n)2 Jun 2026 -Kotak: Takeaways from management interaction26 May 2026- India Financials: AHFCs- The tide begins to turn25 May 2026-Bajaj Finance: What's changed?21 May 2026-India Financials: State of the sector-Calm before the storm19 May 2026-The Long View: India Financials-What drives deposit growth?8 May 2026 -India Financials: At the trough of multiple cycles .NBFCs in India have historically operated under a lighter regulatory regime than banks -no CRR, SLR, PSLrequirements, lightersupervision,freedominbranchexpansionandevenpricing.ThiswasadeliberatepolicydesignasNBFCsweremeantto reach segments that banks couldn't, and the lightertouch was the compensation for the absence of deposittaking privileges and lender of last resort access.The trade-off was clear:NBFCs sacrificed funding cost and stability foroperational flexibility. sticky retail deposits offered the potential fora structurally lower and more stable cost of funds-arguably the singlemostimportant competitive advantage in financial intermediation.Unsurprisingly,back in 2013 when RBlopened the bank licensewindow,there was a long list of NBFCs that applied for the bank license with the hope that the ability to offertransactionaccounts will strengthen their custo