维持Starz Entertainment持有评级，目标价上调至26美元。

Date4 June 2026 CompanyStarz Entertainment BloombergSTRZ US Valuation & Risks Maintaining Hold, but Gaining Confidence in Bryan KraftResearch Analyst+1-212-250-0117 We are maintaining our Hold rating and increasing our price target to $26, from$17, drivenby our higher EBITDA and FCF estimates.In our view, the companyis executing well against its post-separation strategic and financial priorities. Therecently announced exit from the Universal Pay 2 deal is a significant positive,enabling management to pull forward its 20% margin target by afull year to 2H27,from exiting 2028. This move, combined with a successful shift in go-to-marketstrategy that is yielding a healthier, higher-ARPU subscriber base, gives usgreater confidence in the company's ability to generate sustainable free cash flowand de-leverage the balance sheet. While we are encouraged by the progress, we Spencer AmerResearch Associate Benjamin SoffResearch Analyst+1-212-250-3716 Shiv-A SinghResearch Associate Key changes Price target (USD)17 Starz’s shift in go-to-market strategy is paying off, withcontinued OTT revenuegrowth ahead.The strategic pivot away from prioritizing subscriber growthtowardfocusing onhighervalue customers is yieldingsigns ofpositiveearlyresults.Starz delivered revenue $5M below our estimate and EBITDA $2M aboveour estimatein 1Q.OTT revenue grewsequentially for the first time since 4Q24on the back ofsequential ARPU growth and churn reachinganewlow.Theshifttoward ahealthier subscriber base and strong engagement (up 8% y/yagainst a Management pulled forwardthe20% margin target to 2H27, from“exiting 2028”,driven by the early exit fromits Pay 2filmoutput deal with UniversalStudios,which was originally planned to run through 2028.Management noted that a highsubscriber overlap with Amazon (which holdsmonths 5-14 inthe18-month Pay1window) resulted in the Pay 2 titles underperforming on Starz, effectively savings while allowing the rest to fall to the bottom line.Managementreiteratedits outlook forLSDEBITDA growth in 2026and we estimateStarz can achieve afull-year 2027EBITDAmargin of ~18%, or3.7% growth. As part of its contentportfolio rationalization, Starz recorded a $139.1 million restructuring charge(below the EBITDA line)in 1Q, primarily for the write-off of content with limitedstrategic value. The company will record an additional restructuring charge in 2Q, Fightland, Starz’s firstwholly ownedoriginal production,will premiereon July 31,representinga major proof point for the company's new content strategy.Whilethe success of a singular show doesn’t fully indicate Starz’s abilityto develop andlaunch its own successful IP,it cangenerate confidence in its ability to do so. Theeconomics of the show are already favorable, with Skyon board as a co- commission partner, improving unit economics and validating its internationalappeal. BeyondFightland, Starz has also greenlit a new owned original, an Management reaffirmed its target to exit 2026 at 2.7x leverage, which appearswell within reach.Management also maintained itsfull-year guide of $80-120MinUFCFand $50-60Min LFCF. Withunderlying EBITDAgrowth, the path todeleveraging the balance sheet is clear, and the company’s longer-term target of Estimate Revisions:We arelowering our 2026-2028 revenue estimates by ~$10Mper annum, while increasing our EBITDA estimates in the same timeframe by$5M, $15M, and $23M, respectively.Ourhigher EBITDA estimates,despite lowerrevenueestimates,are largely a function of lower expected programming Price TargetDerivation:Weuseour economic returns model, a market-basedDCF, to forecast future equity value, which we then discount back, using ourestimated ~13.4% cost of equity, to a 1-year forward target. We begin bycapitalizing the growth in unlevered free cash flow at the WACC(~9.7%), adding Figure4:Model Summary Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments 7-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment 8-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months. 14-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non- 15-This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it received Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments issued by this company