格鲁吉亚的储备充足性：多少才够？

Reserve Adequacy inGeorgia: How Much is Mehmet Cangul and Will Abel SIP/2026/051 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 19, 2026. This paper is also 2026JUN IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Reserve Adequacy in Georgia: How Much is Enough?Prepared byMehmet Cangul and Will Abel* Authorized for distribution by Alejandro Hajdenberg IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:This paper extends the Jeanne-Ranciѐre (2011) framework to assessGeorgia’soptimal level ofinternational reserves by incorporating three additional channels particularly relevant to its economy: (i)sovereign risk and borrowing costs; (ii) private-sector dollarization; and (iii) foreign exchange volatilityassociated with market shallowness, building on Chen and others (2023). This integrated framework provides amore comprehensive measure of reserve adequacy than the baseline approach for partially dollarizedemerging markets. Under these extensions,Georgia’soptimal reserve coverage is estimated at around 145- RECOMMENDED CITATION:Cangul, M., & Abel, Will. (2026).Reserve Adequacy in Georgia: How much isEnough?, IMF Selected Issues Paper No26/051. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS ReserveAdequacy in Georgia:HowMuch isEnough? Georgia Prepared byMehmet CangulandWill Abel GEORGIA SELECTED ISSUES May19, 2026 ApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartment Prepared ByMehmet Cangul (SPR)andWill Abel (MCD) CONTENTS RESERVE ADEQUACY IN GEORGIA: HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?_____________________2 A.Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B.Analytical Framework: Baseline and Extensions______________________________________3C.Conclusions and Policy Options______________________________________________________7 References______________________________________________________________________________8 ANNEX I. Technical Details____________________________________________________________________10 RESERVE ADEQUACY IN GEORGIA: HOW MUCH IS This paperassessestheoptimallevel of international reserves(“reserves”)for Georgia inacontext ofelevated external uncertainty. Whilereserve coverage hasrecently reached conventional adequacythresholds, these benchmarks may not fully capture country-specific vulnerabilities and policy needs.Building on a standardcost-benefitframeworkforreserves, the analysis incorporatesthreeadditionalchannels:sovereign borrowing costs, private-sector dollarization, and the need for foreign exchange A.Introduction 1.Reserves in Georgia have increased markedly in 2025, bringing coverage to conventional adequacy levels.After remaining below theIMF’sAssessing Reserve Adequacy(ARA)threshold for several years and coming under pressure during the October 2024 parliamentaryelections, Georgia’s reserves recovered to 100 percent of ARA by end-2025, supported by strongservices exports, higher gold prices, and de-dollarization (Figure 1). Continued reserve accumulation Sources: Georgian authorities, Haver Analytics, and IMF staffcalculations. 2.Reservesin Georgiacould increaseto 145–150 percent of the ARA metric to reachoptimal levels.The accumulation ofreserves byEMs can be viewed as a form of self-insuranceagainsta range of external shocks, includingcapitaloutflow volatility, terms-of-trade shocks, andshifts in global financial conditions. Jeanne and Ranciѐre (2011) propose a cost-benefit frameworkfor reserve accumulation(the “baseline” framework), in which the opportunity cost of holding B.Analytical Framework: Baseline and Extensions 3.In the baseline framework, optimal reserve holdings reflect a trade-off between theinsurance benefits of reserves in a crisis and their opportunity cost in normal times.The modelconsiders a small open economy facing a stochastic risk of a sudden stop in capital inflows. In suchepisodes, external financing dries up, requiring an abrupt adjustment in consumption unlesssufficient reserves are available to smooth the shockand limit the long-term economic costs. A 𝜌=𝜆+𝛾−(1−p where p is the reserves to output ratio;𝜆is the level of private external debt as a share of GDP; γ isthe output loss ratio from the sudden stop (assumed if the reserves are not used to smooth theconsumption);andσ is the risk aversion parameter.2The baselineframeworkyields an optimallevelofaround 130percent of ARAfor Georgia,assuming a 10 percent probability of a sudden stop.This Extension 1: Reserves and Sovereign Risk Premia 4.Higher reserves canreducesovereign borrowing costs by improving marketperceptions of liquidity and rollover risk.By strengtheningconfidence in the country’s ability to sovereigndebt and reduceissuance costs. Thus,the