全球能源存储：全球能源存储：锂价是否见顶？

Global Energy Storage: Have lithium prices peaked? Lithium carbonate prices have tripled from 2025 lows, reaching ~$30k/t in May beforeeasing to $20–25k/t on supply restarts, which we view as a short-term buffer.We continueto view the market as being in a mid-cycle recovery rather than approaching a peak.Inventories are tight at ~20 days, capex has yet to recover, and supply growth is starting tomoderate. On the demand side, robust battery demand led by ESS continues to absorb higher Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Lithium demand has grown ~32% year to date, outpacing supply growth of ~24%and driving a meaningful market tightening.The key driver has been ESS, with demandup ~100% YTD, offsetting more moderate EV growth of ~9%. On the lithium supply side,growth has been led by China (+30%), Chile (+25%), and Argentina (+106%), whileAustralia (+6%) and Zimbabwe (+16%) have lagged, contributing to a tighter-than- Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com We estimate ~200kt LCE of curtailed supply is gradually returning to the marketalthough this only provides a short term buffer.While this may help partially close thesupply gap in 2026, it is unlikely to keep pace with demand growth as capacity additions Inventories have tightened significantly, with lithium inventory days falling to ~20days year to date.Historically, lithium prices tend to rise more sharply once inventory fallsbelow ~20 days, with spikes often occurring closer to ~15 days or lower. Current levelssuggest the market has moved from balanced toward tightening, with inventory now firmly Current higher lithium prices have not led to any meaningful demand slowdown.We expect ESS markets can absorb lithium carbonate prices in the ~$30k/t range based on underlying project economics. Importantly, sustained higher prices are required toincentivize new supply, particularly given long development timelines and the lag in capex We have revised up our lithium price assumptions to reflect tighter lithium market.We now estimate lithium carbonate prices of ~$25k/t in 2026 (from $21k/t previously) and ~$32.5k/t in 2027 (from $25k/t), while maintaining our long-term price assumption of$16k/t. This reflects both tighter near-term market conditions and required to sustain long- Despite the recent rally in lithium prices, Tianqi Lithium’s valuation remainsattractive.We update our earnings estimates and valuation to reflect higher lithium price assumptions in 2026 and 2027. Following the higher price assumption, we revise up ourDCF-based valuation for Tianqi Lithium to RMB80/sh (from RMB73) for Tianqi (A-share)and HKD65/sh (from HKD61) for Tianqi (H-share), using a 9% WACC and terminal growthrate of 2% (both unchanged). This assumes a long term lithium carbonate price of $16k/t.The stock currently trades at ~17x 1-year forward P/E, well below its historical average of BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Lithium carbonate prices have more than doubled to above ~$20k/t from 2025 lows, yet we view the market as mid-cycle withfurther upside as supply response continues to lag tightening fundamentals. Lithium demand has grown ~32% YTD, led byESS (+100%), outpacing supply growth of ~24% and driving a meaningful market tightening. Inventory days have fallen to ~20days, a level historically associated with stronger price momentum. While ~200kt of curtailed supply may return in 2026, thisis only a temporary buffer, with 2027 expected to tighten further. Demand remains resilient, with ESS and EV markets able toabsorb prices in the ~$30k/t range. We raise our price forecasts to $25k/t in 2026 and $32.5k/t in 2027, with Tianqi offering VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS SUMMARY We expect the lithium market to remain a highly cyclical industry with supply responding elastically to price changes. Sinceour last lithium supply and demand update from last December (Global Energy Storage: 2026 Lithium Outlook. How high canprices go?), lithium carbonate prices have more than doubled and market sentiment has turned far more constructive. We stillview the industry as mid-cycle rather than late-cycle. The key change has been stronger-than-expected battery demand, led byenergy storage, which has tightened the market much faster than we previously expected. While lithium equities have already Lithium carbonate prices fell from a peak of $80k/t in November 2022 to a trough of around $8k/t in mid-2025, but have sincerecovered to around $20-25k/t. Unlike six months ago, prices are now well above marginal cash costs and high enough toencourage some curtailed supply to restart. Even so, the industry is still coming off two years of weak returns and capex cuts, Year to date, lithium demand has increased by around 32% while supply has grown by around 24%, implying demand hasoutpaced supply and the market has tightened