全球住宿业：世界杯提振抵消其他领域疲软

Global Lodging: World Cup boost covers softness elsewhere The headline grabbing numbers at Q2 look set to be in US RevPAR. US RevPAR rose 4%across April–May, accelerating to 7% in the first week of June. That week included just eightWorld Cup matches versus 28 and 36 in the following two weeks. Even without furtheracceleration, the World Cup boost should push hotel groups to the top end of guidance - orbetter; Hyatt should lead. US strength more than offsets well-flagged Middle East weaknessand slower growth in Europe and China. OTA traffic has softened into Q2, particularly atBooking and Expedia. However, Booking consensus has fallen to 3.5% room night growth(vs. 2–4% guidance); unless cancellations remain elevated, this looks beatable, with ~6.5%achievable. Airbnb looks cleaner, with stronger web and download trends driven more byAPAC/LatAm than the World Cup; we expect ~10% night growth, a 1.6% beat to consensus.Expedia looks a bigger concern, and looks to need a big B2B quarter to avoid a miss toconsensus. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Sabrina Blanc+33 1 42 13 47 32sabrina.blanc@bernsteinsg.com OTA demand.App traffic growth has slowed across all three major platforms. Webtrends are mixed: deterioration at BKNG and EXPE, but resilience at ABNB, driving LDDy/y growth. Agoda remains strong (~30% app engagement growth), while Booking andPriceline lag. At EXPE, Expedia and Hotels.com face y/y declines, while Vrbo performs well.Overall, Airbnb should deliver the cleanest quarter (~10% growth), while Booking (~6.5%)can still beat a low guide and conservative consensus. AI showing early signs of an inflection?Referral data shows that traffic being directedto the OTAs by AI has returned to growth this quarter, having slowly been in decline sinceQ3 last year. Despite this inflection, AI referrals still contribute <0.5% of total traffic. We stillawait the launch of Google’s AI-mode hotel feature which is expected to leverage Google’ssuite of AI protocols (Universal Commerce, Model Context, Agentic Payments) to facilitatebooking without visiting a brand website or OTA. Hotel demand:Q2 marks the start of the World Cup effect, which looks positive againstmuted expectations given strong June run rates (~4%) and easy comps. North Americanstrength should push RevPAR to or above the top end of guidance despite internationalsoftness. The K-shape persists, with luxury outperforming: Hyatt (4.3%), Marriott (3.2%),Hilton (2.9%), IHG (2.6%), the latter weighed down by a slower quarter in China. Development remains resilient in the face of conflict in the Middle East.The hotelpipeline continues a steady recovery from last year’s Liberation day contraction, showingno signs of being impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. The global pipeline is now~48,000 rooms (1.9%) larger than pre-Liberation day levels, with all regions contributingto this recovery. Construction has been even stronger, with ~54,500 (6.1%) more roomsin construction in May than at the end of 2025. MEA has been resilient given the conflict inthe region, with the pipeline 3.5% larger than it was in February and in construction roomscontinuing to increase. With the conflict in Iran now in its fourth month, the inflationarypressure of building material prices and fuel are yet to have a meaningful impact on globaldevelopment. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS In lodging, we rate Marriott, Accor and Hyatt Outperform, and IHG and Hilton Market-Perform. In online travel, we rate Airbnband Tripadvisor Outperform, and Booking and Expedia Market-Perform. Recent research on OTAs: Tripadvisor: TheFork sale agreed with American Express for $700m (49% of market cap)Booking: How it won online travel & can it win AI travel?Airbnb: Bernstein SDC best ideas slides & key take aways from investor meetingsOTAs in the Quarter (1Q26): Winning the Phony WarOTAs: Updates from Airbnb's Summer Release, Google I/O, and Expedia EXPLORE 26OTAs: Google didn't kill the OTAs, so why might AI? Recent research on Hotels: Quick Take: Marriott - WSJ letter suggests owners want more Credit Card CashHyatt: Thesis recap & key highlights from the 2026 investor dayLodging in the Quarter (1Q26): K-Popped? Not yet - Hyatt back to top pick on H2 inflectionGlobal Hotels: Key takeaways from our expert franchisee callsGlobal Hotels and Cruise: Artificial Intelligence.... Sooner or Later - do bots take vacations? EXHIBIT 1:Under April - May performance and assuming early June performance will continue through the month,we expect Marriott to beat their Q2 RevPAR guidance, and Hilton to come right at the top end of their 2-3% range DETAILS ONLINE TRAVEL AGENTS EXHIBIT 4:Based on current traffic data, we expect Airbnb and Booking to outperform consensus on room nights,while Expedia is likely to underperfor