Mobileye将成立垂直整合型机器人 Taxi 业务：布局路径与前景

MobileyeReuters BuyNorth America 22 June 2026 United States MBLY.OQ MBLY US Autos & Auto Technology Time to take greater control Research Analyst+1-212-250-7263 business(owner+operatoroffleet)startingwith100vehicles intheUSnextyear,scaling to 17k in five years. We generally like the move but acknowledge it is asomewhat latepivot andthink itmayreflect impatiencewithpartners not movingfast enough despite clear consumer demand signals. With the fully integratedservice, we anticipate Mobileye can finally demonstrate its technologycapabilities in unrestricted ways, paving a path to either being a truly directcompetitorto Waymoorhigh-volume supplierto Uber/Lyft.Near-term capexwillbe minimal butgoing directtoconsumer likelyultimately requires billions ofcapital. Mobileye will host a CMD in early December where we expect to hearmoreonspecificplansforbothrobotaxiand Mentee (humanoid). ResearchAnalyst+1-415-617-3268 Research Analyst+1-212-250-5121 Research Associate+1-212-250-6026 Expandingvaluecaptureinrobotaxi ecosystemMobileye is expanding its role in the robotaxi value chain by combining its self- driving system, Mobileye Drive, with its Moovit mobility platform to offer a fullservice offering, aiming to deploy an initial fleet of 100 vehicles in a major USmetropolitanmarketnextyear,andsubsequentlyscalingto~17,000vehiclesoverfive years. Management believes this will complement existing partnerships (e.g.,Vw) by accelerating time-to-market, gaining operational experience, andshowcasing the full capabilities of its autonomous driving technology.Mobileyeplans to own and operate the initial fleet with vehicle retrofitting and logisticssupport provided by partners. In terms of "why now?" - management believesconsumer demand is clearly very strong yet the industry is struggling to scale up,presenting anopportunitytobenefitfromthat imbalance.Inaddition,OEMsnowoffer"AV-ready"platformswith redundant steeringandbrakingenablingeasierupfitting with self-driving systems. Near-term impacton2027 Wethink thenear-term impacton capexand opex will belimited, as the initialfleetin2027willonlybe~100vehicles.At$100kpervehicle,theimpacton2027capexwill be only around $1Om.For context, Mobileye expects itsbaseopex to growaround mid-SD % over the next few years. Moovit will help Mobileye by providingits mobility platform and consumer-facing applications, multi-modal trip planning,andexpertiseinconsumermobility,riderengagement,andfleetoperations.Thiswill be critical for scaling autonomous mobility services globally. What is the long-term path forward? Mobileye can essentially try to be Waymo albeit with structurally better Mobileye we estimate a fleet of 17,000 AVs will cost $850m-$1.3bn and if spread across 5years, implies at least +$200m in incremental capex annually. Of course, thiswould allow the company to capture the entire value of a ride without splittingwith partner.Second, Mobileye can successfully demonstratethe capabilities ofits initial robotaxi fleet and then become a key high-volume supplier of vehicles toUber/Lyft. Such a partnership could involve large order of vehicles and/or equityinvestment and naturally be the capital efficient path forward. In such a situation,the market dynamics would largely be unchanged in the US: Waymo, Tesla, andthe Uber"complex." Appendix 1 exchanges via Reuters,Bloombergand othervendors.Otherinformation is sourced fromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources. 1 - Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company,for which it received fees. issued by this company. 7 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking orfinancial advisory services within thepast year. 8 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservicesfromthis company inthenextthreemonths. 14 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investment banking related services. 15 - This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it receivedinvestmentbanking services. 21 - This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investment banking securities-related services. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators 1 - Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for thiscompany, for which it received fees. 2 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instrumentsissued by this company. 24 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) is or has been over the previous 12 months party to an agreement with thecompany relating to theprovision of services set out in Sections A and B of A