CRH以85亿美元收购Arcosa交易分析

Pujarini Ghosh, CFA+44 20 7676 6807pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com Victor Acitores+34 915 893 901victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com Sara Bellenda+44 20 7762 1867sara.bellenda@bernsteinsg.com Price Target CRH.US CRH: The $8.5bn Arcosa deal will expand aggregates portfolio andprovide exposure to growing megatrends like electrification CRH announced the deal to acquire Arcosa Inc. in an $8.5bn deal, the biggest in CRH’s history,which has been garnering investor interest. We highlighted our first impressions in our note thismorning and here we highlight the key takeaways from the call and update our model. Close Date18 Jun 2026CRH.US Close Price (USD)111.24Price Target (USD)150.00Upside/(Downside)35%52-Week Range131.55/86.83EDME1,578.06FYEDecDiv Yield1.4%Market Cap (USD) (M)74,725EV (USD) (M)92,822 Aggregates led deal: The deal comes with 35mn tons of high quality aggregates (seeExhibit 2 to Exhibit 4) which will expand CRH’s portfolio 230mn ton portfolio, specificallyin fast-growing Texas markets such as DFW and Phoenix (see Exhibit 5 to Exhibit 7).The overlapping geographic footprint will lead to logistics and network synergies andcomplementary offering will lead to high revenue synergies. Arcosa is a US market leader inrecycled aggregates & stabilized sand, which provide attractive growth platforms for CRH. Expansion into Engineered Structures: Arcosa’s Engineered Structures business iscomplementary to CRH’s capabilities and will help CRH tap into growing megatrends forexample electrification. Utilities are expected to invest ~$1.4 trillion in grid infrastructureby 2030 and with Arcosa, CRH can gain exposure to this transmission capex. Arcosa arespecialists sitting between the aggregates/cement producers and contractors/ customers.With CRH’s nationwide presence, Arcosa’s business can be quickly scaled up, and close thegap as we have seen with CRH’s data center business. Valuation: The EV of ~$8.5bn, implying ~14x FY26 EV/EBITDA. Post synergies of $175mn,this is expected to drop to 11.5x, which is in line with CRH’s multiple and our expectationof the multiple compressing 2-3x post synergies. With the deal, as aggregates/materialsbecomes a greater share of CRH’s business, which are favored by investors as evident fromthe high multiples of aggregates peers, and the European business shrinks in proportion(often viewed as a management distraction), we believe the stock should rerate. Investment Implications We are encouraged to see such a deal as it expands CRH’s scale in US aggregates and givesthem access to engineered structures to tap into massive utilities capex, providing synergies,pricing power and margin expansion. The ~$8.5bn price tag looks lofty leading to the stockopening LSD down today, however, the synergy targets look realistic and achievable, andmight even be conservative. Therefore, providing an enhanced buying opportunity. DETAILS SYNERGY CALCULATIONS: CRH have highlighted that the acquisition is EPS and margin accretive from 12 months post transaction close and synergies of$175mn are expected within 3 years. We have tried to replicate the pro-forma P&L. For FY26 pro-forma calculations, we assume higher interest from deal financing.Last year CRH raised $2.5bn of new 5 and 10 year bonds at 5.25% and 5.75% rates respectively. Assuming that part of the$8.5bn deal will be financed with cash from the balance sheet (assumed to be earning a lower interest rate of 2-2.5%) andpartly by debt (paying ~5% interest rate), we get to ~$300mn of added interest (or interest income lost) in the first year postdeal. We have assumed Arcosa’s depreciation is ~2% of sales (which is the average of the last 5 years). We have assumed 23%combined tax rate post acquisition. Under these assumptions we get to ~1% EPS accretion for FY26 pro-forma (see Exhibit 1). £ years post acquisition, we assume Arcosa revenues grow at 4% and EBITDA at 5% p.a. (similar to Arcosa’s target for FY26,while their historical growth rate has been materially higher). We assume the EBITDA synergies come on top of the EBITDAgrowth. We assume some debt payoff, leading to ~$250mn interest after 3 years. Under these assumptions we get to ~2% EPSaccretion after 3 years of acquisition. EXHIBIT 2:Arcosa operates 2 business - construction products which would have material synergies with CRH’sAmericas Materials segment and Engineered structures which would be relevant to CRH’s Americas BuildingSolutions business EXHIBIT 5:CRH’s US footprint MODEL UPDATE We have updated our model to reflect the Arcosa deal, assuming the deal closes at the end of Q1’27. We have already bakedin inorganic capex of ~$20bn by over 2026-30, we have simply replaced the unknown inorganic transactions with Arcosa. Sobroadly our numbers do not move materially. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services