维吉尔神经科学（VIGL）：SNY以4.7亿美元收购新型口服TREM2药物用于阿尔茨海默病

2024A2025E0.00.0--(1.97) 2026E0.0(1.65) Andrew Tsai * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1566 | atsai@jefferies.comMatthew Barcus, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate(415) 229-8703 | mbarcus@jefferies.comJohn Cox, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8708 | jcox1@jefferies.comBrian Balchin, ACA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1522 | bbalchin@jefferies.com The Long View: Vigil NeuroscienceInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferVIGLleveragesprecisionneurodegenerative diseases.Lead drug VG-3927 is an oral QD TREM2 smallmolecule in starting a Phase II trial for Alzheimer's disease in Q3:25. We believe'3927 could have superior attributes to TREM2/abeta/tau antibodies includingaunique MOA, convenient oral dosing, less ARIA risk, a high therapeutic indexbroad TREM2 activation, and enhanced microglial effects.Base Case,$8, +246%Our base case of $8 assumes VGL101 is returnedto AMGN and VIGL's acquisition by SNY proceedsas planned.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Product Quality & Safety:TREM2 is a fairly novel target for neurodegeneration,so there are still longer-term scientific unknowns. Ensuring product quality and monitoring safety isimportant. Therefore, it is important that the company has good oversight of its ALSP and Alzheimer’strials (among other diseases) to ensure compliance with government regulations.2)EmployeeEngagement, Diversity and Inclusion:Smaller biotech companies must ensure that they have sufficienttalent to develop drugs, especially during the transition to later-stage clinical trials.3) Access andAffordability:ALSP is a relatively newly discovered disease with genetic determination, so access totesting and treatment must be deliberate to maximize patient impact.Company Target(s):NoneQs to Mgmt: 1)What gives you confidence the FDA is comfortable around the safety profile of yourTREM2 asset (vs competitors)?2)What steps have you taken to prepare for Phase II/III trials in ALSPand Alzheimer’s (e.g. employee and/or Board hires)?ESG Sector Deep Dives: US Biotech, Pharma, and Specialty PharmaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. medicinetotacklerare/commonUpside Scenario,$15, +549%Ourupside scenario of$15 assumes theacquisition falls through and VIGL continues toprogress with its pipeline of TREM2 assets, or ifanother bidder emerges. Downside Scenario,$2, -13%Ourdownside scenario of$2 assumes theacquisition falls through and VIGL faces setbackswith its clinical trials.Catalysts•Q2:25:Updates on regulatory strategy foriluzanebart in ALSP•Q2:25:Final Phase II (IGNITE) 12-month data inALSP for 20 and 40 mg/kg•Q3:25: Initiate Phase II Alzheimer's study withVG-3927•Q3:25:Expected acquisition close•2025:Confirm FDA buy-in on acceleratedapproval pathway for iluzanebart for Phase II/IIIIGNITE trial 2 Exhibit 1 - VIGL Income Statement.Fiscal Year (Ending in December)($ figures in MM, except per share)GAAP Income StatementProduct RevenueVGL101 (IV antibody)ALSPcALD and other indicationsSmall Molecule (Oral)Alzheimer's Disease (AD)Other IndicationsOther RevenueTotal RevenueCost of SalesOperating ExpensesResearch and Development (R&D)Sales, General and Administrative (SG&A)Total ExpensesOperating Income (EBIT)Total Other IncomeInterest income, netOther income (expense)Pre-tax incomeProvision for taxes (benefit)Tax RateNet IncomeNet Income attributable to common stockholdersEPS Basic (GAAP)EPS Diluted (GAAP)Shares Outstanding - BasicShares Outstanding - Diluted (as reported)Shares Outstanding - Fully Diluted w/ WarrantsShares Outstanding - Fully Diluted w/ All Options etcSource: Jefferies estimates, Company reportsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionVigil NeuroscienceVigil is a microglia-focused company dedicated to improving the lives of patients, caregivers and families affected by rare and commonneurodegenerative diseases by pursuing the development of disease-modifying therapeutics to restore the vigilance of microglia. Vigil’s lead candidateis VGL101, a fully human monoclonal antibody (mAb) that is designed to activate TREM2 for adult-onset leukoencephalopathy with axonal spheroidsand pigmented glia. Also in development is a small molecule TREM2 agonist targeting Alzheimer’s disease.Company Valuation/RisksVigil NeuroscienceValuation is based on the proposed acquisition price of VIGL. Risks include the acquisition facing regulatory risk or the emergence of additional suitors,or VIGL's lead products facing clinical, regulatory, and commercial setbacks.Amgen, Inc.Our price target is based on a historical industry multiple applied to our NTM non-GAAP EPS and supported by our DCF. Risks include IP litigation,biosims, pricing, and competition.SanofiValuation: Our Price Target is based on a 50:50 blend of P/E and NPV, assuming a 20% disco