欧洲央行欧洲央行政策的金融稳定性考虑：概念框架和定量工具（英）2026

Financial stability considerations formonetary policy at the EuropeanCentral Bank: conceptual frameworkand quantitative tools Ugo Albertazzi, Paul Bochmann,Miguel Boucinha, Lorenzo Burlon,Cyril Couaillier, Giorgia De Nora,Daniel Dieckelmann, Stephan Fahr, Finn Faber,Juan Manuel Figueres, Marco Forletta,Alberto Grassi, Hannah S. Hempell,Marie Hoerova, Barbara Jarmulska,Marek Jarocinski, Peter Karadi,Jan Hannes Lang, Marco Lo Duca,Caterina Mendicino, Elmar Mertens,Julian Metzler, Anton Nakov, Kalin Nikolov,Aurea Ponte Marques, Niki Papadopoulou,Elena Rancoita, Costanza Rodriguez D’Acri,Marek Rusnák, Ellen Ryan, Enrico Sette,Valerio Scalone, Bernd Schwaab,Frances Shaw, Manuela Storz,Matthias Sydow, Dominik Thaler, Emiliano Toni,Alejandro Van der Ghote, Peter Welz No30 Disclaimer:This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Discussion papers Discussion papers are research-based papers on policy relevant topics, offering a broader and more balanced perspective. While beingpartly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic. They also consider explicitlythe policy perspective, with a view to develop a number of key policy messages. Their format offers the advantage that alternativeanalyses and perspectives can be combined, including theoretical and empirical work. The selection and distribution of discussionpapers are subject to the approval of the Director General of the Directorate General Research. Abstract The paperdocuments models used toanalyse the interactions and trade-offs between price andfinancial stability at the European Central Bank. The paper describes a simple conceptual frameworkto think about the short-and medium-term trade-offs between price and financial stability. Short-term trade-offs arise whenever current inflationary pressure is high, but the financial system isexperiencing stress. Medium-term trade-offs arise whenever current inflationary pressure is low, butrisk is building up in the financial system. We documentfour main sets of models used to quantifytrade-offs: time series models, balance sheet models, credit risk models and DSGE models withbanking and financial frictions. Keywords:Monetary policy, Financial Stability, Trade-offs JEL Codes:E44, G28 Monetary policy and financial stability are connected: a stable financial system is essential for theeffective transmission of monetary policy and the achievement of price stability, while monetarypolicy itself influences funding costs, leverage decisions, and risk-taking within the financial sector.Although macroprudential tools—strengthened significantly since the Global Financial Crisis throughmeasures like Basel III, enhanced supervision, liquidity requirements, and the creation of the SingleSupervisory Mechanism—helped to build theresilience of the financial sector andact as the primarydefence against financial imbalances, monetary policy may still need to consider its side effects onfinancial stability, especially when risks spill over to non-bank intermediaries or arise from exuberantbehaviour by households and investors. Institutional mechanismsto account for theses interactionsand the complementaritiesbetweenmonetary policy and macroprudentialpoliciesare essential. Reflecting this need, the ECB’s 2021Monetary Policy Strategy Review explicitly integrated financial stability considerations into the policyframework, emphasising the interdependence between economic analysis and monetary-financialanalysis. Followingthe review, the ECB introduced an in-depth assessment of the interaction betweenmonetary policy and financial stability conducted as part of the monetary and financial analysis atregular intervals and considered at the monetary policy meetings of the Governing Council. This paper describesaset ofquantitative toolsforassessmentsofthe interaction between monetarypolicy and financial stability.Itdocumentsfour sets of models to quantify trade-offs: time seriesmodels, balance sheet models, credit risk models and DSGE models with banking and financial frictions.While this paper presents key models currently in use, efforts aremade on an ongoing basis to expandthe toolkit for the analysisof thesetrade-offs. 1. Introduction Monetary policy and financial stability are interrelated. Financial stability is a precondition for thesmooth functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism and is therefore a precondition for pricestability. In turn, monetary policy determines the cost of funding of banks and their borrowers and isan important element in the choice of leverage and asset-side risk-taking. Therefore,monetary policymay occasionally end up playing a role bothin managing episodes of financial stressand in restrainingthe growth of financial imbalances. Microprudential and macroprudentialpoliciesare the first line of