欧洲央行欧洲央行政策的金融稳定性考虑：概念框架和定量工具（英）2026

Financial stability considerations formonetary policy at the European Ugo Albertazzi, Paul Bochmann,Miguel Boucinha, Lorenzo Burlon,Cyril Couaillier, Giorgia De Nora,Daniel Dieckelmann, Stephan Fahr, Finn Faber,Juan Manuel Figueres, Marco Forletta,Alberto Grassi, Hannah S. Hempell,Marie Hoerova, Barbara Jarmulska,Marek Jarocinski, Peter Karadi,Jan Hannes Lang, Marco Lo Duca,Caterina Mendicino, Elmar Mertens,Julian Metzler, Anton Nakov, Kalin Nikolov,Aurea Ponte Marques, Niki Papadopoulou,Elena Rancoita, Costanza Rodriguez D’Acri,Marek Rusnák, Ellen Ryan, Enrico Sette,Valerio Scalone, Bernd Schwaab, Disclaimer:This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Discussion papers Discussion papers are research-based papers on policy relevant topics, offering a broader and more balanced perspective. While beingpartly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic. They also consider explicitlythe policy perspective, with a view to develop a number of key policy messages. Their format offers the advantage that alternativeanalyses and perspectives can be combined, including theoretical and empirical work. The selection and distribution of discussion Abstract The paperdocuments models used toanalyse the interactions and trade-offs between price andfinancial stability at the European Central Bank. The paper describes a simple conceptual frameworkto think about the short-and medium-term trade-offs between price and financial stability. Short-term trade-offs arise whenever current inflationary pressure is high, but the financial system is Keywords:Monetary policy, Financial Stability, Trade-offs JEL Codes:E44, G28 Non-technical summary Monetary policy and financial stability are connected: a stable financial system is essential for theeffective transmission of monetary policy and the achievement of price stability, while monetarypolicy itself influences funding costs, leverage decisions, and risk-taking within the financial sector.Although macroprudential tools—strengthened significantly since the Global Financial Crisis through Institutional mechanismsto account for theses interactionsand the complementaritiesbetweenmonetary policy and macroprudentialpoliciesare essential. Reflecting this need, the ECB’s 2021Monetary Policy Strategy Review explicitly integrated financial stability considerations into the policyframework, emphasising the interdependence between economic analysis and monetary-financial This paper describesaset ofquantitative toolsforassessmentsofthe interaction between monetarypolicy and financial stability.Itdocumentsfour sets of models to quantify trade-offs: time seriesmodels, balance sheet models, credit risk models and DSGE models with banking and financial frictions. 1. Introduction Monetary policy and financial stability are interrelated. Financial stability is a precondition for thesmooth functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism and is therefore a precondition for pricestability. In turn, monetary policy determines the cost of funding of banks and their borrowers and is Microprudential and macroprudentialpoliciesare the first line of defence againstthe build-up offinancial stabilityrisks. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the way banks are supervised andregulated has improved significantly,boostingfinancial system resilience. The Basel III accord hasincreased the size and quality of banks’ equity buffers and introduced new liquidity requirements thatlimit banks’ maturity transformation and mandate them to hold sufficient liquid assets. Bank resolutionis now easier due to new ‘bail-in’ requirements.Bank supervision has strengthened with the creation Together, all these capital and liquidity policies shouldhelp to restrainimbalances inthe financialsystem throughseveralchannels,ensuringthe provision of key financial services to the economy.Lower bank leverage and liquidity risk reduces the incentives for excessive risk taking by forcing banksto bear the cost of poor lending decisions. Stronger supervision helps to identify risky behaviours early However, there may still be situations in which monetary policyneeds to consider the side effects itcreates for financial stability.Given existing limitations of macroprudential policy, thesesituationsmay arise fromseveralsources such as, for example, the spillovers of lending to the non-bank financialintermediary (NBFI) sector as well as from ‘irrational exuberance’ by households and investment funds.And even if trade-offs between price and financial stability do not arise (as is normally the case), theinteractions between monetary policy and macroprudential policy tools imply that it is vital that official “The Governing Council bases its monetary policy decisions, including the evaluation of theproportionality of its decisions