制造业出生率下降导致美国制造业陷入困境

TRELYSA LONG|JUNE 2026 Manufacturing start-ups, particularly in critical national economic power industries, are essentialto the nation’s economic and security strength. Yet, U.S. manufacturing start-ups have declined KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. manufacturing start-ups are declining at a time when all other start-ups are growing.From 1989 to 2023, U.S. manufacturing start-ups declined 58 percent from an index of100 to 42.5. All other start-ups grew from 100 to 104.6. Most of the decline occurred prior to 2009 and appears related to the significant drop inU.S. manufacturing competitiveness. Manufacturing start-ups have declined faster than total manufacturing firms. From 1989to 2023, manufacturing start-ups declined from an index of 100 to 42.5, while total The average manufacturing start-up is now smaller. Manufacturing start-ups’ averagenumber of employees fell from 9.2 in 1989 to 7.7 in 2023. Dual-use, enabling, and nonstrategic industries had very similar rates of decline, rangingfrom 57 percent to 60 percent. In contrast, defense industries had a much smaller rate Manufacturing start-ups have not declined because of growing industry concentration, as82.3 percent of manufacturing industries saw a decline or slight increase (< 5 percent) in To avoid losing more manufacturing strength to China in economic power industries, theUnited States should set a national goal of at least doubling the annual number of CONTENTS Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................. 1Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2Manufacturing Start-Up Firms in Decline............................................................................. 4Fewer Young Manufacturing Firms ...................................................................................... 7Start-Ups’ Average Employees .......................................................................................... 10Manufacturing Start-Ups in Defense, Dual-Use, Enabling, and Nonstrategic Subsectors.......... 11A Likely Cause Is The Growing U.S. Trade Deficit ............................................................... 12Industry Concentration Was Not the Cause for Manufacturing Start-Up Decline...................... 13Policy Recommendations................................................................................................. 15Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 15 INTRODUCTION Start-ups play a crucial role in the evolution of economies.1No matter how healthy incumbentcompanies are, some will eventually shrink or even die. Moreover, start-ups are critical ways of National economic power industries, most of which are in manufacturing, are a cornerstone ofnational competitiveness and geopolitical independence. Yet, over the past three decades, the At one level, the decline should not be a surprise, given that real valued manufacturing outputhas declined as a share of gross domestic product (GDP).2But the decline in start-ups was 10percent more than the decline in manufacturing output. And the average employment size of Despite proclamations from policymakers and industry advocates—including former EnergySecretary Jennifer Granholm, who claimed that U.S. industrial policy “has revived Americanmanufacturing, created jobs, and made our country more secure”—the underlying data tells adifferent story.3The decline in start-ups in what the Information Technology and InnovationFoundation (ITIF) defines as dual-use sectors and enabling sectors is particularly troubling as To ensure that the United States slows or, ideally, reverses its relative decline in nationaleconomic power industries, policymakers need to promote a more robust manufacturing start-up Box 1: Defining National Economic Power IndustriesThe conventional view is that defense industries are the only industries that matter to national power. But that is now vastly too limiting. As Corelli Barnett, wrote, “For munitions productionfor modern war is not primarily a question of specialized armament industries, as some suppose, With that in mind, ITIF has developed a classification of U.S. industries for their relevance tonational power. This can be viewed as a continuum between defense industries on one side,nonstrategic industries on the other, and strategic industries and strategic enabling industries in At one end of the continuum are defense industries. Clearly industries such as ammunition,guided missiles, military aircraft and ships, tanks, drones, defense satellites, and others arestrategic. Not having world class innovation and production capabilities in these industries At the other end of the spectrum are industries in which the United States has no real strategicinterests. These include furniture, coffee and tea