2026年全球电子游戏行业深度报告：发展现状与趋势

Global Video Gaming: The State of Play, 2026 - a deep dive onglobal industry trends We estimate $220bn of industry revenue in 2026.This note represents our annualdeep dive on global video gaming industry revenues. While we typically argue videogaming assets are best analysed bottom-up, there is value in maintaining some top-downperspective. We also zoom in on some key industry debates. Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com The back half of the capital cycle.Our global video gaming industry model incorporatestop-down estimates by platform and region, and our quarterly tracker of revenue trendsacross 28 listed video gaming companies. For 2025, we estimated $218bn of industryrevenue, 4.8% higher year on year. We’ve modelled 0.7% growth in 2026, followed by 3.3%growth in 2027. But the bigger story is consolidation across the industry, with the listedcohort expected to grow c. 7-8% this year, and a growing number of (overdue) Westernstudio closures thinning the competitive landscape. Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Hyrum Caesar+81 3 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com Could GTA VI be a clearing event for the industry?Our main takeaway from summershowcase season was simply the extent to which the industry’s desire to avoid competingwith GTA VI had forced everyone into a logjam of new game releases in September. Thecrowding raises the risk of near-term sales disappointments, especially for games notbacked by strong developer or IP credibility. But with investor expectations for GTA VIseemingly now ranging from bullish to biblical, we increasingly think November could be aturning point for sentiment and investor positioning elsewhere. The argument for continued PC strength.The Chinese PC gaming market grew 15% in2025, after Black Myth Wukong introduced gamers to experiences on larger screens. Wethink similar growth acceleration is likely across the broader industry, as GPU VRAM inside“typical” home PCs come to support PS4/PS5-era games, and as console and mobiledevelopers embrace multi-platform launches. The memory headwind for console hardwarepersists - the hope for Nintendo is that a stronger 2027 slate (Pokemon, Xenoblade,Mario…?) will make price increases more palatable, should the need arise again. Mobile platform fee cuts and broader questions.On March 4, 2026, Google announcedit would cut Android platform fees from 30% to 20% over an 18-month period. On March13, 2026, Apple announced it would cut iOS platform fees to 25%. Looking ahead,with these platforms maturing in terms of traffic growth and lawsuits ongoing in severaljurisdictions, we think the direction of platform fees remains lower—to the benefit ofcontent creators. Our base case is publishing and second-party relationships do not seemeaningful change in the foreseeable future. AI disruption fears are still misguided.It’s clear the industry is starting to find ways toleverage AI to accelerate development. Meanwhile, the fact IP strength and communityvisibility represent key drivers of engagement for new launches probably represents thebest argument against AI disruption …in addition to the complexity of game developmentbeyond creating 3D worlds, and the creative nature of original storytelling. While thenumber of new games released on Steam rose from 8,100 in 2019 to 21,400 in 2025, thenumber of titles with over 5k reviews went from 73 to… 72. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS This note represents our annual top-down look at global video gaming industry growth. We estimated $218bn of total videogaming industry revenue in 2025, 4.8% higher year on year. For 2026, we’ve modelled 0.7% growth, with PC replacingconsole as the fastest growing segment within the industry. Within this, the listed cohort of companies should do better, thoughcannibalisation during a busy September and subsequently over the GTA VI launch will be worth watching. For 2027 we’vemodelled industry revenue to rise 3.3% year on year. At the industry level, the bigger story is arguably market share consolidation, long overdue studio closures in Western marketscontributing to what should be a more favourable part of the capital cycle. The fact that home PCs are becoming increasinglygaming-ready (e.g. with 8-12Gb of VRAM, or better) should continue to drive adoption growth in new markets. Capcom was anearly mover identifying the growth potential of the PC market, and we expect other companies with competitive catalog gamelibraries to benefit too (see also Square Enix launching its back catalog on the Switch 2). Console, on the other hand, continuesto face memory cost headwinds. Global mobile gaming revenues grew 0.1% year on year in Q1 2026, and we model anotheryear of low single-digit growth this year. 2027 should be a year of faster top-down growth across the global video gamingindustry, as GTA VI vacates the launch runway. Competitively, we remain attracted to the idea t