2026-2030年全球太阳能市场展望

markets 2024Including a focus on Australia 15 years of trustedprotection againstcorrosion Magnelis® has been settingthe benchmark for solarstructures for 15 years.Continuously evolving throughinnovation and an expandedoffering, it has supported~130 GWp of solar installationsworldwide, backed by provenperformance in tests and fi eldexperience. • Available inZM800 and beyond,for challenging terrains.• Up toS700GD-HyPer®strength forlight and cost efficient structuresmaximising robustness.Available only from ArcelorMittal.• Up to64% lower CO2eq contentthanks toXCarb® recycled andrenewably produced. Magnelis®. The original.By ArcelorMittal. Protected byindustry.arcelormittal.com/magnelis Foreword Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2026-2030 One could almost take it for granted that solar is breaking deployment records year after year.And indeed, the global solar power fleet passed the 3 TW milestone in early 2026, less than twoyears after reaching 2 TW and only four years after entering the terawatt era. What is even moreimpressive is that solar now supplies 9% of global electricity demand – three times as much as justfive years ago. In 2025, the world installed a record 664 GW of new solar capacity, a 12% increase over the previousyear. Once again, solar was by far the largest contributor to new renewable power generation worldwide,accounting for around 80% of renewable capacity additions. It also outpaced the combined additions offossil fuel and nuclear power generation. These remarkable achievements reflect the extraordinary paceat which solar has become the backbone of the global energy transition. But now is not the time for complacency. In an increasingly uncertain geopolitical and economic environment, shaped by repeated energysecurity crises and fossil fuel price volatility, solar paired with battery storage is becoming moreimportant than ever. No other technologies can deliver affordable, resilient and rapidly deployableenergy at scale while simultaneously strengthening national and individual energy security. Thisedition therefore includes a dedicated chapter exploring the growing relationship between solardeployment, energy independence and resilience. The solar message is crystal clear: the technology isready for much more, the economics are compelling,and the strategic rationale has never been stronger Yet a closer look at the numbers reveals that the industry is entering a new phase. While solarcontinues to grow, the pace of expansion is moderating. We expect the global market to contractby 8% in 2026, primarily due to a projected 24% decline in China following major changes to itssolar market design. The rest of the world keeps mostly growing, but, as the world’s dominant solarmarket, developments in China inevitably shape global trends. Looking ahead, growth remains firmly on the horizon. Under our Medium Scenario, global solarcapacity is forecast to more than double to 6.6 TW by 2030. Impressive at first sight, this representsa downward revision from last year’s forecast of 7.1 TW, reflecting the structural constraints thatincreasingly accompany solar’s success. Grid congestion, insufficient storage, limited systemflexibility, permitting delays, financing barriers and supply-chain resilience are already keychallenges hampering further growth. For this reason, the Global Solar Council has expanded its policy recommendations. In addition tolongstanding priorities, governments should integrate solar into national energy security strategiesand accelerate the deployment of battery storage, recognising its dual role in strengtheningresilience and providing system flexibility. The case of Australia, our region in focus this year and the upcoming COP31 co-host, demonstratesthe benefits of strategic investment in storage, showing how even a very mature solar marketcan continue to unlock new opportunities. Policy support has triggered an unprecedented batterystorage boom in the country already home to the highest per-capita solar deployment globally,adding more than 10 GWh of residential storage in less than a year and beginning to decrease gasgeneration during evening peak demand periods. If more countries follow the Australian approach, our High Scenario could turn into reality, pointingto over 15% additional upside potential, with the global solar fleet reaching 7.6 TW by 2030. Thatpathway becomes increasingly achievable, and could be even conservative, if governmentsaccelerate electrification, modernise power systems and draw the appropriate lessons from therecent fossil fuel energy crises. The COP31 Presidency’s proposal for a 35% global electrification target sends a strong and positivesignal. At the same time, promising solar developments in Southeast Asia in response to the latestfossil fuel crisis in particular highlight the region’s growing momentum. Home to more than halfof the world’s population and heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, the region has