2022-2026年全球太阳能市场展望

For Solar Power2022 - 2026 Magnelis®steel As your investmentdeserves a long life With its unique composition andexcellent protective performance,Magnelis®is the leading galvanisedsteel for long-lasting solar mountingstructures. For racks, purlins or tubes, Magnelis®steel (ZM310) offers an expectedlifetime of more than 30 years in C3environments. This performance has beencertified by independent bodies. For poles and columns, Magnelis®steel (ZM620 or ZM430) can be usedfor foundations in soil or concrete witha guarantee up to 25 years based upona local soil analysis. XCarb®green steel certificatescan bepurchased alongside your Magnelis®order. Protected by Magnelis® industry.arcelormittal.com/magnelis Foreword Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2022-2026. Solar has just reached a new dimension. At the launch of this edition during the Intersolar Europe 2022 tradeshow in early May, total global installed solar capacity has just passed the 1 TW threshold. That’s amazing,considering that only 20 years ago, in early 2002, the cumulative grid-connected volume had reached 2 GW;today, it’s 500 times that much. And while it took 16 years, until 2018, to reach the 500 GW level, here we are, alittle more than 3 years later, looking at an amount that has doubled to 1,000 GW or 1 TW. After achieving 1 TWof global solar early in the year, the forecast for the rest of 2022 is similarly bright, with the world on track toinstall more than 200 GW in one year for the first time. With 228 GW of expected solar installations, additionalcapacity in 2022 will be equivalent to total global solar capacity in 2015. This lookback at the short history of commercial solar deployment — that began at the start of this millenniumwith the introduction of the German feed-in tariff law — clearly unfolds how quickly solar has evolved. But aswe dive deeper, it also reveals how missing visions of decision makers and flawed policy frameworks have beenshowstoppers, severely slowing down developments. In fact, solar could have grown even faster. Europe’s largestsolar market Germany has still not been able to repeat its record installation volume from 2012. Finally, it neededa new government to come up with an ambitious solar vision and prepare the legal boundary conditions toenable really strong growth. This is only one example. While the global solar industry has been doing itshomework and helping solar to become the lowest cost power generation technology, it needs the rightframework conditions to be able to tap solar’s potential. Lengthy and costly permitting is still the major obstacleto rapid solar dissemination. This annual Global Market Outlook is a cooperation of the world’s leading regional and solar industry associationsthat work hard to convince decision makers about the unique benefits of solar. We want to say a big Thank Youto all contributors and supporters of this solar market outlook, which would not have been possible without allthe different helping hands from solar associations around the world. The focus region of this GMO edition is Latin America, a sunny and promising region for solar power, and home toone of the rising global solar stars, Brazil, where a bucket of different attractive policy tools has made the countryone of the top five global solar market prospects over the next five years. We are grateful to our partner, the GlobalSolar Council, which has provided this chapter through its member, Brazilian solar association ABSOLAR. Looking ahead, the next driver for solar stems from Europe. So far, the fight against Climate Change has beenthe key driver for on-grid solar development to the TW-level. As we are deeply shocked about the Russianinvasion of Ukraine, it has also uncovered the geostrategic importance of solar power. Depending, to a largeextent, on Russian gas and oil imports, most European countries are trying to detach themselves from Russia’senergy strings as soon as possible. In this context, they have begun to look from a different viewpoint at versatilesolar power, which in combination with heat pumps can be also used to electrify heat supply, and provide localand individual energy security. The very sad developments in Ukraine will provide a further boost to solar, despitethe negative economic implications. Our Medium Scenario projects the next doubling of global installed solarcapacity to 2 TW already by 2025. Enjoy reading our Global Market Outlook. DR. RODRIGO LOPESSAUAIACo-Chairman, GlobalSolar Council & CEO,ABSOLAR WALBURGAHEMETSBERGERCEO, SolarPowerEurope MICHAEL SCHMELAExecutive Advisor,SolarPower Europe Table of contents Foreword3Executive summary51Global solar market7Update 2000 - 202112Prospects 2022 - 202621Segments 2022 - 202631Conclusions332Focus: The Latin American solar market – by GSC35TrendsWhat’s cool in solar technology493GW-scale solar power markets in 202160 Lead author:Michael Schmela, SolarPower Europe. Project manager:Raffaele Rossi, SolarPower