战争与AI动荡：是时候用法务式视角审视医疗行业

EquitiesGlobal Healthcare By: Rajesh Kumar, Morten Herholdt, Linda Shu ( S1700522120001),and Damayanti Kerai The least naughty child War & AI wobbles: Time to get forensicon Healthcare Assuming relatively lower exposure to AIdisruption risk and an uncertain macro andgeopolitical backdrop, Healthcare mightbe a preferred sector for investors; relativecyclicality of CROs, CDMOs, and LifeSciences/MedTech should render Pharmamore attractive However, following the recent reliefrally driven by US MFN deals, we thinkinvestors might seek some margin ofsafety in valuations; we downgrade Lillyto Reduce as we think obesity TAMexpectations are due for correction We revisit our sector picks through fivebuckets of ideas – growth/GARP, fallenangels, self-help, value, and value traps;preferring AstraZeneca, Abbvie, J&J, Sun,and Innovent in Pharma; Thermo-Fisher inTools; Lonza, Divi’s, and Wuxi in CDMO;our least preferred remains UnitedHealth Disclosures & Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Why read this report? Global Healthcareideasfor 2Q’26 An uncertain macro backdrop, rising geopolitical risk, lowerexposure to AI disruption risks–there are many factors that,wethink, could attract investors to healthcare and driveoutperformance in the coming quarter. We offer a guide to GlobalHealthcare ideas, scenario analysis, and a forensic lens onaccounting and clinical trials. Key conclusions:We prefer DM therapeutics over obesity, Tools/MedTech likely need H2’26macro clarity, Asia CXOs screen well, whileManaged Care is our least preferred. 1.Eastward shift in innovation–investable now:Integrated views to rotate acrossgrowth/GARP, fallen angels, self‑help, value, and value traps as the cycle turns. Chinabiotech is essential for global M&A and pipeline replenishment. Our global view identifiesbottom-up ideas. 2.Forensic accounting on healthcare models:When a sector’s accounting practices arequestioned, one needs to ask: why? We examine accruals (rebates/working capital), costcapitalisation, and “core” adjustments and try to understand what these say about theunderlying markets–from obesity supplychains to CXO/Tools. 3.HSBC proprietary forensic rubric:A pre-readout scoring system (design, endpoints,stats, conduct, safety, operations,etc) allows us to determine whether current marketpessimism or optimism about catalysts might be overdone. We present scenarios for keycatalyst readouts (e.g., WAINUA, Milvexian) vs priced-in. 4.Geopolitics and the sub-sector playbook:Scenario analysis of AI disruption, geopoliticalrisks, and US-China policy/supply chains show what might hold up (DM therapeutics, AsiaCXO) vs what needs macro clarity (Tools/MedTech). 5.Why obesity TAM might be smaller:We argue that price competition is rising, capitalintensity is a marker of greater pressure, and as a consequence, the total addressablemarket (TAM) for obesity might be USD80-120bn (not >USD150bn). Stock ideas by buckets Growth/GARP:AstraZeneca, Abbvie, J&J, Sun Pharma, Innovent, WuXi AppTec (A/H), Apollo. Fallen angels:Thermo-Fisher, Lonza, Mindray, Divi’s Lab. Self-help:Bayer, Dr Reddy’s. Value:Pfizer. Value traps:Eli Lilly, Novartis, UnitedHealth. Read this to build a global healthcare playbook, stress-test exposures, prioritise catalysts, andsidestep accounting pitfalls. Contents Why read this report? Global Healthcare strategy Scenario analysis20 Catalysts throughour forensic rubric lens25 Developed markets 55 China Healthcare64 India Healthcare71 Companies74 Disclosure appendix Disclaimer104 GlobalHealthcarestrategy Healthcare is positioned to outperformin the coming quarterwebelieve.However, elevated multiples and crowded positioningin thesector remains a key risk. Weidentify stocks that might beimmuneto AI disruption risksor macro sensitivities. We think DM Biopharmaquality names, followed by EM CXO companies,remain the mostattractivestocks. Weavoidobesity names, and think Life ScienceToolsand MedTech,whilst cheap, might performbetterin H2’26. Wedowngrade Lilly to Reduceas we think obesity TAMexpectations aredue for correction.Our preferredcompaniesacrossourglobalHealthcare coverage are AstraZeneca, J&J,andAbbvie in developedmarkets,and Innovent and Sun Pharma in Asia therapeutics; Apolloremainsour quality pick in India. Thermo-Fisher inTools/Medtechdeveloped market; Divi’s and Wuxi Aptech in Asia.UnitedHealthremains our least preferredstock. Therapeuticsset foroutperformance We thinkHealthcare is positioned forrelative outperformance in the coming quarter. In a roomfull of naughty children, the least naughty child might be most preferred.Withrisingmacrouncertainty,AI disruptionrisk,andgeopoliticaluncertainties,theHealthcare sector’s relativeattractiveness is set to rise, in our view. Healthcare is positioned forrelative outperformance Healthcare companies’ earnings might be defensive