2024年加密货币核心趋势：关键人物、公司及项目展望与预测

CRYPTOTHESES2024 KEY TRENDS, PEOPLE, COMPANIES AND PROJECTSTO WATCH ACROSS THE CRYPTO LANDSCAPE, WITHPREDICTIONS FOR 2024. W E L C O M E Friends: The carnage of the past twelve months in crypto has been brutal for all of us. We’vegrinded through bankruptcies, lawsuits, layoffs, turnover, and a general malaise thatcomes with a bad hangover after a big party. It’s been surreal at times, too. In some respects, the industry was blown back to 2013 following its first credit crisis(survivors include decade-long operators like Coinbase, Kraken, and Circle). But we havenever been operating further out on the cutting edge of tech than we are today. There’slots of secure block space and scaled transaction processing, composable identity andDeFi applications, stablecoin proliferation, etc.; and Wall Street’s embrace is imminent,whether Jamie Dimon likes it or not. I didn’t think Sam Bankman-Fried would be in jail by the time I wrote the 2024 Theses. Buthis swift comeuppance and lengthy prison sentence marked an important turning pointfor us all. If last year’s report was “It’s So Over,” this year’s report is “We’re So Back.” We’re back to bitcoin dominance. Back to building parallel financial systems “just in case”national currencies inflate, or welose access to banking or credit. Back to peer-to-peerapplications and permissionless inventions vs. cultish centralized services. Back to afocus on an uncensorable internet in an era where free speech and open communicationsare far from guaranteed. (Elon bought us some time, but there are growing threats.) That’s why I remain perma-bullish on this technology and this community. There is reason for hope and optimism. A big part of succeeding in crypto is simplysurviving from cycle to cycle. If you’re reading this, you’re one of the survivors, and I wrotethis for you. The usual disclaimers apply: this report is not investment advice, mistakes are likely in acompendium this long and rapidly written, and (this year, especially) you are prohibitedfrom canceling me for (accurate material) political analysis that may be unpopular. This is a free report that we’re making available early to subscribers. We’re still emergingfrom a bear market, so if you get value out of the Theses every year, I hope you’ll supportour team: subscribe to Pro or Enterprise, test our API, and consider Protocol Services foryour community. Don’t make me put Barbara on this. Please support the builders at Messari. Happy holidays! -Ryan Selkis (aka TBI) 0.1 Perspective This was the industry five years ago. When in doubt, zoom out. Crypto remains inevitable. TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S 0.1Perspective 3 1TOP 10 INVESTMENT TRENDS7FOR 2024 3TOP 10 PRODUCTS OF 202443 3.0Killer Apps443.1USDT on Tron463.2BASE from Coinbase473.3Celestia483.4Firedancer493.5Farcaster503.6GBTC513.7Lido523.8CCIP533.9Blur, Blend, Blast543.10Project Guardian55 1.0Investment Trends81.1BTC & Digital Gold91.2ETH & The World Computer(s)121.3The (Liquid) Field131.4The Resurgence of Private Crypto Markets?161.5IPOs and M&A191.6Policy Meta201.7Can Devs Do Something?!211.8AI & Crypto: Money for the Machines221.9Three New De’s: DePIN, DeSoc, DeSci231.10Messari Analyst Picks25 4TOP 10 CRYPTO MONIES OF 202457 2TOP 10 PEOPLE TO WATCH IN 202431 4.0Bitcoin & Other Digital Monies584.1Bitcoin is the Godzilla of Finance584.2Bitcoin Security Model & Assumption614.3Bitcoin Mining More Important63Than Ever4.4Private Transactions: Protocols,63Coins, or Pools?4.5The New TINA Trade: Stablecoins664.6USDT674.7USDC684.8Paxos, Binance & PayPal Dollars:694.9Crypto-Collateralized Stablecoins704.10CBDCs & Other Memecoins71 2.0Where Are They Now322.1Larry Fink (BlackRock) &32Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)2.2Jeremy Allaire & Dante Disparte (Circle)332.3Kristin Smith (The Blockchain Association34& Michael Carcaise (Fair Shake PAC)2.4Senator Elizabeth Warren (and her Minions)342.5Elon Musk (and his Stans)372.6Michael Sonnenshein &38Craig Salm (Grayscale)2.7Nic Carter & Matt Walsh39(Castle Island Ventures)2.8Lucas Vogelsang (Centrifuge), Denelle40Dixon (Stellar) & Christine Moy (Apollo)2.9Dan Romero (Farcaster) &410x Racer (friend.tech)2.10The DeFi Gang(s)41 5TOP 10 CRYPTO POLICY TRENDS74FOR 2024 8TOP 10 TRENDS IN DeFi138 8.0DeFi is Back?1398.1DEX Platform Updates1398.2Trading Aggregators & Front-Ends1418.3Payments!1438.4On-Chain Perps1448.5DeFi Lending1468.6LSTs1488.7Bridges & Messengers1518.8Oracles1528.9RWA Diversification1548.10Stacks & BRC-20s155 5.0Trigger Warning755.1Politics is Downstream of Culture765.2How a Crypto Bill Becomes a Law795.3Congressional Sausage Making815.4The Relentless Hostility of85the Money Regulators5.5The Relentless Hostility of the Protectooors885.6The Courts Are Our Friends… Sometimes915.7Swinging the Senate925.8Stand with Crypto: Engagement94vs. Kowtowing5.9We Need to Set Higher Standards955.10MiCA & TFR: Europe’s “Leadership”98 9TOP 10 TRENDS IN157CONSUMER CRYPTO 6.0State of CeFi6.1What. A. Year. For. Coinbase.