东盟与中日韩区域经济展望2025

The report is produced by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) for the use of the AMRO members andhas been reviewed by the Executive Committee. Its publication has been approved by the Executive Committee of theAMRO. Any interpretations or conclusions expressed are not necessarily those of the AMRO members. By making anydesignation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “member” or “country” in thisreport, AMRO does not intend to make any judgements as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of theAMRO, all of which are specifically reserved. The factual information covers data for the period up to March 14, 2025, except when stated otherwise. © 2025 ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research OfficeISSN: 2529-7538 Printed in Singapore ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office10 Shenton Way, #15-08 MAS BuildingSingapore 079117 enquiry@amro-asia.orgwww.amro-asia.org Table of Contents ForewordAcknowledgmentsAbbreviations ix Chapter 1. Macroeconomic Prospects and ChallengesHighlights I.Economic Developments in 2024: Solid Growth Despite Rising UncertaintiesRobust Domestic Demand Anchored GrowthExternal Sector Recovery Strengthened Growth MomentumInflation Normalized from Post-Pandemic SurgeFinancial Conditions Continued to EaseExternal Position Remained ResilientII.Outlook for ASEAN+3: Steady Growth amid Heightened UncertaintiesKey Factors Shaping Near-Term OutlookIII.Risks to the Outlook: Tilted to the DownsideIV.Policy Considerations: Preparing for a Highly Uncertain EnvironmentFiscal PolicyMonetary Policy2334101113152025303135 AppendixReferences3739 Chapter 2. Inflation in ASEAN+3: Changing Dynamics and Policy ImplicationsHighlights4041 I.IntroductionII.Contextualizing the Recent ASEAN+3 Inflation ExperienceLower and More Short-Lived InflationRelatively Moderate Volatility Despite Wider Sectoral VariabilityWell-Anchored Inflation ExpectationsEvolving Dynamics Between Goods and Services InflationIII.Disentangling the Underlying Shifts in Inflation DynamicsRising Role of Supply Factors in Driving InflationInterplay of Global and Domestic Forces in Shaping InflationIV.Policy Experience and Lessons LearntPolicy Responses by ASEAN+3 EconomiesMonetary Tightening to Stem Demand PressuresFiscal Support to Minimize Inflation PassthroughSupply Management to Stabilize Domestic PricesPolicy Lessons Learnt to Safeguard Price Stability424343455051535361696969707171 Annex 1. Methodology: Supply and Demand DecompositionAnnex 2. Methodology: Global and Domestic FactorsReferences777879 Chapter 3. Long-term Growth of ASEAN+3: Prospects and PoliciesHighlights I.IntroductionII.Long-term Trend Growth in ASEAN+3Understanding the PastExploring the FutureIII.Productivity Growth and Structural Change in ASEAN+3Analyzing Structural Change in ASEAN+3: The FrameworksIndustrialization Stalling in Some EconomiesWide Productivity Gaps Against the FrontierServices Development Still LaggingIV.Policy Considerations and the Way ForwardFuture Growth Pathways for ASEAN+3: Five Policy Considerations1: Upgrading Manufacturing Capabilities2: Prioritizing High Skills and Quality Services3: Closing Investment Gaps4: Boosting Innovation and Leveraging on Technology5: Strengthening State Capacity828384859199101103105105112118119120121122124 ReferencesOnline AnnexesAnnex 1. Growth Accounting FrameworkAnnex 2. ASEAN+3 Growth Potential Trends and Projections, by EconomyAnnex 3. Decomposition of Labor Productivity GainsAnnex 4. Classification of Economies by Stage of Structural ChangeAnnex 5. Classification of Economies by Phase of IndustrializationAnnex 6. Labor Productivity Distance to the Global FrontierAnnex 7. Progress of Structural Change Relative to Peers 132 Annex. Developments in ASEAN+3 Economies Brunei DarussalamCambodiaChinaHong Kong, ChinaIndonesiaJapanKoreaLao PDRMalaysiaMyanmarThe PhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnam 140143146149152155158161164167170173176179 Boxes Box 1.1Shifting Global Semiconductor Landscape and What it Means for ASEAN+36Box 1.2Tourism in ASEAN+3: Recovery from COVID-19 and Shifting Trends8Box 1.3Evolution of Growth Drivers in ASEAN-4 and Vietnam: Analysis Using the Import-Adjusted GDPComponent Framework17Box 1.4China’s Growth and Policy Outlook: A Brief Overview21Box 1.5Scenario Assessment: Impact of US Import Tariffs on ASEAN+328Box 1.6Fiscal Development, Government Debt and Financing Needs in ASEAN+3 Economies32 Box 2.1The Prevalence of Low-Inflation Products in Thailand's Core Inflation Basket47Box 2.2Differences between Producer Prices and Consumer Prices49Box 2.3Changing Inflation Dynamics in Japan57Box 2.4Factors Behind Lao PDR’s Persistently High Inflation Since 202263Box 2.5Understanding the Low Inflation in China65Box 2.6The Impact of US and China Trade Prices on ASEAN+3 Inflation67Box 2.7Carbon Taxes and ASEAN+3: What