2023年区域经济展望

REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOK2023 ASEAN:Brace for impact when risks materialize ASEAN countries will experience slower growth in 2023, at 4.9% compared to 5.3% in 2022, as risks have startedto materialize compounded by stronger internal and external headwinds.Inflationary pressure remains elevatedamid tighter financial conditions. External demand is weakening against the backdrop of a deteriorating globaleconomy, aggressive monetary tightening in advanced economies, and repercussions of the lingering conflictbetween Russia and Ukraine. However, the bloc remains the fastest-growing region.Growth will hold up well in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, driven by domestic demand, particularlyprivate consumption, and the recovery of international tourism.Other tailwinds are free trade agreementsincluding the RCEP, and FDI inflows boosted by diversification efforts of MNCs.Policy priorities will be pivoted to preservemacroeconomic stability amidweakening external demand and fiscalconsolidation to reduce debts.Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.Common threats to the region’s growth trajectory are(1) weaker-than-expected global output, (2) more-aggressive-than-expected monetary tightening in the US, (3)sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, and (4) a deeper global energy crisis.Lao PDR continues to face high probability of external debt distress and an economic crisis.Cambodia and Myanmar will hold general elections in 2H 2023 but we do not expect a significant shift in power. Growth across ASEANEconomic Outlook will slow compounded by several headwinds;policy priorities have shifted to maintaining stability ASEAN region will experience slower growth in 2023 due to internal and external headwinds amid a worsening global outlook. According to the IMF’s latest projections (October 2022), growthin ASEAN-5 countries will reach only 4.9% in 2023 vs 5.3% in 2022.However, ASEAN will remain the fastest-growing region in 2023. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating global environment,risks and challenges are imminent. These include (1) deteriorating growth in advanced economies (AEs), especially the US, Europe, and China, (2) more-aggressive-than-expected monetarytightening in the US, (3) shaper-than-expected slowdown in China, and (4) a deeper global energy crisis. China will likely reopen borders and relax its Zero-COVID policy, but the timing and paceremain uncertain. Cambodia and Vietnam have larger exposure to external headwinds and risks than their ASEAN peers due to theirhigh dependence on trade and export-driven growth.Hence,macroeconomic policy priorities across the region have shifted to preserving stability. Despite headwinds and downside risks, growth is expected to hold upEconomic Outlook in Vietnam,the Philippines, and Indonesia Despitestrongexternalheadwindsin2023,weexpectgrowthinVietnam,thePhilippines,andIndonesiatoholduprelativelywellthatthatofpeers.InVietnam,growthwillslowtoabout6.0%from7.0%in2022.InthePhilippinesandIndonesia,theireconomieswillexpandby5.0%.GrowthintheBCLMcountrieswillbemoderate.Domesticdemand,especiallyprivateconsumption,andtourismwillbekeygrowthdriversacrosstheregionamidadecliningexternaldemandanddarkeningprospectsfortheglobaleconomy.Lookingahead,risksandheadwindstogrowtharegettingstronger.ThecommonkeyrisksforASEANcountriesaretighteningglobalfinancialconditionsanddisruptionsinfinancialmarkets,sharper-than-expectedslowdowninChina,lingeringinflationarypressures,andelevatedfoodandenergyprices. Domestic demand is resilientEconomic Outlook but weakening external demand will dampen prospects in2023, especially in countries with strong dependence on trade Sizeable share of private consumption and recovery of crossEconomic Outlook -border tourismwill be In2023,householdconsumptionandtourismwillplaykeyrolesincushioninggrowthinASEANamidadimmerexternaloutlookthatcouldleadtoasharpslowdowninexternaldemand.Countrieswithlessdependenceontradeandalargeshareofhouseholdconsumption(%ofGDP)likethePhilippines(75%)Indonesia(56%),LaoPDR(64%)andMyanmar(46%)willwithstandexternalheadwindsrelativelybetterthanregionalpeers.SizeableinflowsofpersonalremittanceswillalsosupportprivateconsumptionincountrieslikeCambodiaandthePhilippineswherein2020,theshareofpersonalremittancesreached5%and10%ofGDP,respectively.Therecoveryofinternationaltravelwillalsoboostgrowthanddomesticactivityasconsumersworldwideshiftfromconsumptionofgoodstoservicesinthepost-pandemicera.AllASEANeconomieswillbenefitfromthistrend,particularlyCambodia,thePhilippines,aswellasThailand. Inward FDI and free trade agreementsEconomic Outlook will also support growth in 2023 Intra-regionaltradeandFDIwillremainmajortailwindstodrivegrowthinASEANcountriesin2023.TheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP),signedin2020andsubsequentlyratifiedbymostmembersin2022,isbecomingtheworld’slargesteconomicblocandshouldcontinuetoboostbothexportsandFDI.BasedontheASEANInvestmentReport2022,in2021SoutheastAsiawasamongthetoprecipientsofFDIamo