2022年区域经济展望更新

REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOK2022UPDATE July 2022 ASEAN:Multi-speed recovery to pre-pandemic levels ASEAN is exiting the pandemic-induced economic slump and each country in the region is recovering ata different pace.We maintain our view that growth will rebound strongly in 2022 led by the Philippines, Vietnam,and Indonesia. With high vaccination coverage and easing mobility restrictions, growth will be underpinned by there-opening of economies at home and globally, domestic demand, exports, the resumption of cross-bordertourism, and inward FDI. Economic resilience, macroeconomic fundamentals, and policy supports will determine the pace of recoveryin each country. However, the near-term growth outlook is tilted to the downsideamid an uneven recovery across the region.Despite tailwinds, there are stronger internal and external headwinds. Internally, inflationary pressure is buildingup and forcing some countries to normalize monetary policy faster-than-expected. On the external front, externaldemand could be dampened by a structural slowdown in China, global recession concerns, and a cyclical slowdownin the US. The longer-than-expected war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia have triggered oil priceshocks and elevated prices of commodities, leading to worsening terms of trade for commodity-importingcountries. The larger-than-expected policy-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve could trigger sudden capitaloutflows and worsen external sector stability as well as exchange rate volatility for ASEAN currencies. Lao PDR and Myanmar will experience the largest exposure to those headwinds and external shocks amongcountries in the region. Economic recoverywill remain uneven across ASEANin 2H2022 amid strongerexternal headwinds and greater uncertainties In 2H2022, economic recovery will remain uneven across the region. Growth will rebound strongly in the Philippines, Vietnam,andIndonesia where the reopening of the domestic economyand easing restrictions facilitated by higher vaccination rates as well as successful pandemic containment measures have invigorated domestic demand, especially household consumption.Inaddition, external demand should remain supportive of growth, particularly in commodity-and-food-exporting countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia, and Lao PDR, due to sustained highcommodity prices and trade diversion. Despite showing signs of stabilizing, Myanmar is expected to slowly exit the pandemic-induced recession.Regionally, however, the near-term outlook issurrounded by downside risks and uncertainties.Key risks are (1) rising inflation and higher energy prices, (2) repercussions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, (3) financialtightening in the US., and(4) a structural slowdown in China, as well as (5) the resurgence of Covid-19 cases dominated by new variants. Despite tailwinds,near-term outlookfor ASEAN economies is clouded by strongerexternal headwinds are the largest beneficiaries if tailwinds become stronger Basedonoursimpleassessmentofparametersinfourdimensions-domesticdemand,policysupports,politicalstability,andexternalfactors-amongpeers,Cambodia,Vietnam,MalaysiaandIndonesiawouldbethetopgainersiftailwindsstrengthen. Easing pandemic restrictions and full reopening of domestic economies continue tosupport recovery in the region Higher vaccination rates are helping to bring the pandemic under control. Coupled with the adoption ofliving with COVIDstrategies, related restrictions and containment measures-reflectedby the Stringency Index-have eased, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. This will help domestic demand to improve but recovery will be unevenacross the region.Albeit fading, the boost from reopening will continue to support domestic demand, particularly private consumption which is themain growth driver for this region. However,higher food and fuel prices, as well as tighter monetary conditions, could cap growth where the economic recovery is just starting to take shape. External demand and high commodity pricesshould continue to drive exports Export-dependent economies in the region should continue to benefit from external demand, especially net commodity exporters such as Indonesia and Laos due to sustained high prices anda degree of trade diversion despite the dim global economic outlook.Latest Manufacturing PMI data also suggest there could be a boost in 2H 2022 from export-oriented manufacturing sectors,tailwinds from further reopening, and recent easing of the COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Myanmar is an exception as the country continues to face internal challenges. Looking ahead, the exportgrowth trajectory is surrounded by downside risks including global recession concerns, slower-than-expected growth in China, andthe prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifyinggeopolitical risks and dampening global business sentiments. Exposures to external headwindsare different depending on economic fundamentals,policy m