RTX：在热门市场板块中升级至买入并实现红利

USA | Aerospace & Defense ElectronicsRTX Equity ResearchJune 4, 2026 Upgrade to Buy: In a Hot Section of the Market,RTX Now Taking Advantage We upgrade RTX to Buy with $220 PT at 18.5X '27 EBITDA, 3.6% FCF yield: 1)Raising '26-'28 EPS by ~5% on avg; 2) Margin runway in Commercial w/ Collinsop excellence, P&W OE pricing & GTF aftermarket returns; 3) 75% of Raytheon(conservative estimated 8% CAGR to '30) tied to sensors & effectors capable ofdurable DD+ growth at favorable DoW/int'l economics driving to 14%+ marginsakin to LMT MFC; 4) $9BB+ of discretionary FCF next 3 yrs. Launching New Model.We update our RTX model with new sales & profit drivers. We raise EPS estsby ~5% in 2026-2028, w/ 2026 adj EPS +13% y-o-y to $7.10 (+3% vs cons $6.92; guide $6.70-6.90)and 12% CAGR to $8.75 in '28E (+4% vs cons $8.40). 2026 Margins Conservative, Assuming Down Sequentially Rest of Year.We raise '26E sales to$94.4BB (cons $94.3BB; guide $92.5-93.5BB), +6.6% y-o-y and 7.7% organically (guide +5-6%). ThisassumesCollins+8.5% org (guide +HSD org; Q1 +10%) incl AM +8% (guide +HSD; Q1 +7%);P&W+6.2% (guide +MSD; Q1 +11%) incl AM +9% (guide +HSD; Q1 +19%); andRaytheon+8.6% (guide+HSD; Q1 +9.3%). Segment margins expand 40 bps to 12.3% in '26E, which conservatively assumesmargins fall sequentially in each segment rest of year (vs Q1 +70 bps to 12.6%). Each 10 bps ofmargin vs est 12.3% = +6¢ or +1% to EPS. 20% Upside to 2028 at Mid-Term Margins.We est RTX org sales +7%/year to '28 sales of $107BB,led by Raytheon at 9% CAGR, Collins at 7%, and P&W at 6%. Segment margins +110 bps in '25-'28(+30-40 bps/yr) to 13.0%, led by Collins +180 bps to 18.0%, P&W +100 bps to 9.2%, and Raytheon+60 bps to 12.2% (Ex 1). We believe there is broad upside:Collinshas taken significant cost-out,divested dilutive work, & driven connected aviation that could drive 20%+ margins (+45¢ or +5% to'28 EPS);P&Wcould drive down OE losses w/ GTF-A & accelerate GTF AM margins (est 18% in '28vs ~10% today) as contracts roll over & MRO mix improves, achieving ~12% margins in '28 (+60¢or +7% to '28 EPS);Raytheonsales could accelerate as sensors & effectors (75% of mix) grow +DDw/ volumes & improved economics in DoW frameworks & growing production & int'l mix (31% of'25 sales vs 48% of backlog) that could drive 14%+ margins akin to LMT MFC (+40¢ or +4% to '28EPS) (Ex 3). Exhibit 2 - 20% Upside to 2028 Adj EPS Est of$8.75 If Segments Achieve Mid-Term Targets(+$1.45), Plus Discretionary FCF Deployed toBuybacks (+25¢) Cash Flowing, Deployment Coming.FCF converts at 94% from '26-'28 on better profitability &means to cash neutrality. Cumulative FCF of $31BB over 3 yrs is allocated to $8.5BB of debtpaydown ('28 net leverage 1X) and $13.7BB to divis (est raised +10%/yr). Discretionary cash of$8.8BB deployed to repos (at $200/sh) is worth +25¢ or +3% to '28 EPS. Oppty for select pruningof defense portfolio given defense tech valuations via spins/IPOs (Ex 21). Upgrade to Buy, PT $220:1) 18.5X 2027 EBITDA (37% prem vs 3-yr avg 17% prem) of $18BB; and2) 3.6% 2027 FCF yield (5% prem vs 3-yr avg 5% disct) of $10.6BB. This reflects premium growthvs Defense peers (53% of sales) & high rate of margin improvement vs Aero peers (47% of sales). Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst +1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com Kyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.com The Long View: RTX Investment Thesis RTX is home to leading franchises across Aerospace (47% of sales) andDefense (53% of sales), with meaningful growth runway from marqueecompetitive positions & market growth/budget support. We see potential forRTX to accelerate realization of its long-term margin targets of 20%+ in Collins,Mid-Teens in P&W, and Mid-Teens in Raytheon, which will drive significant FCFgeneration for accretive capital deployment. Downside Scenario,$140, -19% Upside Scenario,$275, +59% Base Case,$220, +27% •2026/2027 net sales +7%/+7% y-o-y.•Collins sales +9%/+6% organic in 2026/2027;P&W sales +6%/+7%; Raytheon sales +9%/+9%.•Adj segment margins of 12.3%/12.6%in2026/2027.•FCF of $8.6BB/$10.6BB in 2026/2027.•Adj EPS of $7.10/$8.00 in 2026/2027.•PT $220: 1) 18.5X 2027E EBITDA of $18.0BB; 2)28X 2027E P/E of $8.00; and 3) 3.6% 2027E FCFyield on $10.6BB. •2027 sales expand +DD, driven by Aftermarket& Defense strength.•Collins profitabilityreaches~20%;P&Wprofitabilityreaches Mid-Teens;Raytheonprofitability reaches Mid-Teens.•Adj segment margins expand to 15%+ in 2027.•Accretive M&A and additional repurchases ÷nd raises.•PT $275: 32X on upside 2027 EPS •2027 sales +LSD, driven by lagging CommercialAero growth due to the macro, supply chainacross segments.•Adj segment margins fall below 12% on lack ofleverage.•Lack of available FCF for deployment.•Production & performance challenges of theGTF program, including GTF-A and HSP.•PT $140: 16X on downside 2027 EPS Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Product Design & Lifecycle Man