日本制药行业投资者演示

June 18, 2026 08:29 AM GMT Investor Presentation| Japan Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Equity AnalystShinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com Pharmaceuticals +81 3 6836-5424 Jaeheon Lee Equity AnalystJaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8443 lTop Pick: Daiichi SankyolOW (Preference order): Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Otsuka, ChugailOW (Mid-cap and generic): Kaken, TowalIndustry View: In-Line Pharmaceuticals JapanIndustry View In-Line Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Table of Contents Our Coverage Stocks Valuations for Our Coverage Stocks (1) Valuations for Our Coverage Stocks (2) Pharma: Valuation Comparison (vs Global Pharma, vs TOPIX) Our view on the pharmaceutical industry JapanIn-LineUSMajor Pharma: In-LineBiotech:AttractiveEUIn-Line Generic vs. Long-listed Drugs (Off-patent) Source:IMS,Morgan Stanley Research Forex Sensitivity Medical & Pharma Cost Spending in Japan Note:Fiscal year ends in the following March,Source:MHLW, Morgan Stanley Research Note:Fiscal year ends in the following March,Source:MHLW, Morgan Stanley Research Source:IQVIA, Morgan Stanley Research US Pharmaceutical Market Source: IQVIA, Morgan Stanley Research Global Medical & Pharma Market Structure Japan Generic Market(1) Daiichi Sankyo (4568, OW, PT ¥4,650) KeyPoints •Attractive ADC new drugs & Stable dividend (>Y100/sh/yr)•Enhertu(HER2-ADC)•>$12bn sales potential in 2030 (mainly in BC). Alliance with AZN•Her2 Low/Ultra-low BC (pre-chemo) approval in 1/2024 (DB06)•Datroway(TROP2-ADC/Dato)•Launch in 2025 for BC(HR+/HER2-) 2/3L & NSCLC(EGFRm) 2/3L•NSCLC 1L. AVANZAR result in 2026-2H. TL07/08 results in 2027•TNBC 1L. FDA approval in 5/2026 (TB02)•Merck alliance (max $22bn value)•HER3: NSCLC (post-TKI).HL01. BLAwithdrawn in 5/2025.•B7H3 (I-DXd): SCLC 2/3L (IDL01).PDUFA 10/2026•CDH6 (R-DXd): Ph2/3 (R-OV01,OvC2L). Filing in 2026 ? Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research, Note:JP Pharma P/E are weighted Avg of our coverage companies’P/E (based on our 1-1.5 year forward EPS estimates) Takeda (4502, OW, PT ¥6,300) KeyPoints•Multiple new drugs to emerge in 2025-26 •Oveporexton(narcolepsy, oral): Ph3 (NT1) success in 7/2025.CoEPeaksales $2-3bn for NT1 only.Ph2 POC result for TAK-360 (NT2) in 2026.OPM 80% or more•Zasocitinib(oral TYK2): Launch planned in 2027 (PsO). Acquired for $4bn.CoEPeak sales $3-6bn forPsO/PsA.UC/CD Ph2 results in 1-3/2027•Rusfertide(PV): Ph3 success.Filing in end-2025 and launch in 2026.CoE.$1-2bn peak sales•Mezagitamab(IgAN/ITP): CD38MAb. Ph3 starts from 2025•TAK-999 (GalNAc-RNAi). AAT liver disease.Fazirsiran•Dividend: It started to raise dividend from 2023 for the first time in the last15yrs. Stable dividend hike ongoing (Yn4-8/yr hike)•Share buyback: Y100bn in 11/2021-4/2022 (first time in the last 13yr).Y100bn in 2-4/2025.•Limited downside until 2030-32•Patent expiries: Vyvanse in 2023.Entyvio in 2030-2032•Co targets Core OPM to raise to low-mid 30% Source:Morgan Stanley Research, Note:all estimates are Morgan Stanley Research estimates Otsuka Holdings (4578, OW, PT ¥14,100) KeyPoints •New drugs & royalty revenue exceed LOE risks in 2025-29•LOE (US): AbilifyMaintenain 10/2024,Jynarquein 4/2025.Rexultiin 6/2029.We estimateMaintenaLOE in 2027-28•Royalty income: >Y300bn income in 2030•Kisqali(CDK4/6).Pluvicto(PSMA+Lu177).Truqap(AKTi)•KRAS G12C (calderasib) Ph3 ongoing by Merck (Astex/Otsuka collaboration)•Voyxact:IgAN. US approval 11/2025. $390k/year. eGFR 2yr results in10/2026•$5.9bn in 2035 sales in Base case•$300k/yr x 15% penetrate (of 150-180k pt in US) x POS 60%•Success in eGFR trial can boost the POS furthermore•Other pipeline wave is emerging•Zipalertinib(EGFRm NSCLC) : Oral. 2L approval in 2026. 1 L result in 2026•Ulotaront(MDD, GAD,etc) : Ph3 result forschizoin 2026•RDN (renal denervation) device : Change to Category I expected in >2028•Non-pharma business: Strong brand & solid growth Chugai (4519, OW, PT ¥10,700) KeyPoints •Rich pipeline (but limited events in 2026-27) •Oral GLP-1(Foundayo/orforglipron). LLY partner. US launch in 4/2026, butslow start. Ph3 results for OSA and hypertension planned in 2026-27•GYM329 (emugrobart) : Obesity Ph2 results in 2H-2026•NXT007. Hemophilia A. 2ndgeneration ofHemlibraPh3 results in 2027-28.•Nemluvio(IL-