德银：泡泡玛特9992HK2026年5月线上同比2024年以来首次负增长维持卖出评级

Company Update China May-26 Performance: First NegativeYoY Growth Since 2024 SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 We track PopMart's China online sales (Tmall/Taobao+Douyin)via Moojing e- commercedata.InMay,salesfell by5%YoYand14%MoM.May'sperformancealsoindicatesa25%declinecomparedtotheaveragesalesin2H25.Notably,Maymarks thefirstmonthsince2024that Pop Mart has recorded negativegrowth inouronlinetracker,reversingitsprevioussolidgrowthmomentum.This confirmsourearlierpredictionofmountingsalespressureinPopMart'sdomesticmarketfor2Q26 onwards.Furthermore,we believe this pressure could intensify in 2H26,driven bya higher comparison base and waning IPpopularity in China. Since the beginning of 2026,Pop Mart has been aggressively launching newproducts,whichistheprimarydriverofcurrentsales.Thatsaid,asthebaseeffectintensifiesinQ2andtheimpactof"fashionfatigue"becomesmoresignificantaftersuchanintenseproductlaunchscheduleandincreasingproductsupply,webelievePopMartwill entera clearerdowncycle in2H26inbothChina andoverseasmarkets. Focus turnstoWorldCupsales andLabubu4.0launchThe near-terminvestorfocus is on"THEMONSTERS×FIFASeries",whichis an official collaboration between PopMart and FIFA.Labubu's appearance in theWorld Cup song"Goals"with celebrity Lisa and at the opening ceremony sparkedpositivediscussion in China, celebrating the emergence of a domestic IPon theworldstage.Consequently,southboundinvestorshaveturnedmorebullishontheWorldCup's impact,believingthis collaborationcouldacceleratesalesinWesternmarkets.However,GoogleTrendsmetricsremainrelativelyquietintheU.SFurthermore,historical precedents showthatwhile manyChinesebrandshavepreviously sponsored FIFA or other sports events (e.g.the Olympics),thesesponsorshipsyielded a limited impacton actual product sales. Looking ahead, Pop Mart is expected to introduce Labubu4.o in the near term.Although Pop Mart's social media teasers show the demo of Labubu with differenthairstyles,managementhasyettoclarifyifthesebelongtoastandardnewLabubucollection or the official Labubu 4.0 series.While bullish southbound investorsanticipate strong sales regarding Labubu 4.0,we argue that the existing"fashionfatigue"surroundingthe IP could leadtoaweaker-than-expected sales outcome. Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart for the Molly 20-year anniversary,Twinkle Twinkle, Crybaby,Dear Birds,andZsigaseries,showingavery intenseproduct launchschedule inQ2toboostsales. Based on our channel checks, offline stores are experiencing a continuousincreaseininventoryavailability.Thisstandsinstarkcontrasttotheout-of-stockbottlenecksobserved in2025.We believe this situation alsopoints toa potentialsofteningofdemandinChina:themarketdynamichasreversed,shiftingawayfromthe product scarcity that once drove consumers to queue for new releases. Billionaire investor Duan Yongping has become the biggest external individual shareholder. We believe the current price rebound since April mostly reflectsDuan'sheavystockpurchasesandthefundflowthatfollowshislead,ratherthanbeingbasedonfundamentals. to this, southbound interest also rose to an all-time high of around 26% of totalshareholding, with these investors becoming the major buyers recently. Therationalefor southbound would appearto be:1)Duan is a very successful valueinvestor,andhisheavyshareholdingimpliesapositiveoutlookforthecompanythatthe marketmay not currently realize.2)Duan has been selling put options or buyingshares around and below the Hks160 share price level, indicating there aresufficient inflows that will defend that price level. Chinasecondarymarkettrends&ourviewSecondary market prices are key indicators of the IP's popularity and supply- demanddynamics.Basedonourcheck,Labubu-relatedproductscontinuetoexperiencecoolingdemand,likelyduetoreducedscarcityafterhighsalesvolumesin2025and 2026CNY."TwinkleTwinkle"is now the onlyPopMart IPdeemed"scarce"in China,yet its secondary market price has also begun trading at adiscount, signaling early"fashion fatigue,"a trend similar to Labubu in 2025.Forthe"TheMonsterxFIFA"series,wealso seeweak secondarymarketfeedbackinChina,withampleinventory onlineandofflineandadiscounted secondaryprice(aroundRMB550compared to the RMB599 retail price),indicatinga lackofpopularityfortheIP despite the discussionon social media in China. We believe the market is overestimating Pop Mart's growthby extrapolating itsrobust2025salesintothefuture.PopMart's1Q26operationalupdatealsoconfirmsourthesis ofasequential decline inIP salesacrossoverseasmarkets(please seeour latest 1Q26 review).While the China marketwas temporarilysupported by holiday sales, we argue this momentum is not sustainable.May'sonlinesalesconfirmourviewthatChinasaleswill seenegativegrowthenteringQ2,while the salespressure could begreater in2H26.Thus,we forecast -2%YoYrevenue decline and more significant operating deleverage than the marketexpects,leading to RMB 1.15bn innet profit.Wemaintain our Sell rating,withaTarget Price of HK$140. Retail /Wholesale TradePop