谁在购买国债、抵押贷款、信贷及市政债券

Matthew Luzzetti, Justin Weidner, Steven Zeng, Brett Ryan, Amy Yang, Raj Bhattacharyya1 Columbus CircleNew York, New York 10019Tel: 212 250 6161 June 2026 Featured charts US fixed income markets grew by $5.9trn in last 4 quarters Total US fixed income securities outstanding: $61trn as of Q12026 Treasury and agency securities make up about 70% of US fixedincome Treasuries’ share of US fixed income has expandedsignificantly since the Global Financial Crisis Treasury debt as a percentage of GDP is currently 96%, upfrom 75% before Covid Non-financial corporate debt as a percentage of GDPdeclined from a peak of 55% during Covid to 41% currently Domestic sector funds the bulk of the US budget deficit Foreign ownership of US Treasuries fell slightly to 30% in Q12026, not far from the multi-decade low of 29% seen in 2023Q3 Private holdings of US Treasuries concentrated in maturity of5 years or less Federal Reserve still owns close to 30% of Treasuries with 10-year or longer maturity Foreigners, insurance, and mutual funds make up majority ofthe investor in credit markets (IG, HY, and loans) Primary dealer net holdings of Treasuries have risen sharplysince 2022 Maturity composition of primary dealers’ inventory ofTreasuries Bank holdings of Treasury and agency debt expanding againafter contracting during the Fed tightening cycle What are foreign centralbanks doing? Global FX reserves: $13trn as of 2025 Q3 Global FX reserves: USD share trending lower but remainsabove 50% Value of USD reserves recovering after falling sharply in thelast Fed tightening cycle China’s FX reserves rose to $3.4 trillion as of May 2026 Increased volatility in China’s FX reserves in recent years Federal Reserve’s custodial holdings for foreign officialaccounts have declined Foreign private purchases of Treasuries remain positive whileforeign official purchases are flat Foreign official holdings shifted from Treasury notes andbonds into T-bills over last year In aggregate, global central banks continued to reduce assetsover the past six months Auction demand Demand for 52-week bills has increased Investment funds have overtaken primary dealers in T-billauction allotments Steady auction sizes for nominal Treasury coupon securitiessince 2024 Generally stable demand for 2-to 7-year auctions Investment fund allotments in 2-to 7-year auctions fell fromrecent highs Stable demand for 10-to 30-year auctions Investment fund allotments in 10-to 30-yearauctions fell from recent highs Who is buying Treasuries? Framework for price elasticity of US fixed income investors Different buyers of fixed income have different pricesensitivities: Foreigners remain the largest investors in Treasury debt Top 5 investor categories in US Treasuries Other investor categories (6th-10th) in US Treasuries Net issuance of Treasury notes and bonds remains elevatedrelative to pre-Covid levels The Fed’s bond portfolio fell by more than $2trn during QT butis rising again with reserve management purchases (RMPs) Money market funds hold primarily short-term Treasurysecurities and repo Bank holdings of Treasury and agency securities track theirdeposit liabilities Foreign ownership of T-bills nears a multi-decade low Foreign private holdings skew toward longer maturitiescompared to foreign official holdings China’s reported holdings of Treasuries continues to fall, whileEurope, UK, and Canadian holdings are rising China appears to have restarted buying USD equities in early2026 Foreign buying of equities has accelerated in recent quarterson a 12m basis Foreign demand is rising for corporate bonds and falling forTreasury and agency bonds Who is buying GSE MBS andagency debt? Commercial banks are the largest investor with 25% of totalagency securities outstanding, steady since 2019 Agency MBS ownership relatively spread out among investorcategories Mortgage activity perked up slightly as mortgage rates havecome down slightly Who is buying Corporate andForeign Bonds?Who is buying Corporate andForeign Bonds? Foreign investors and insurance companies own combinedover half of corporate and foreign bonds Growth in financial corporate and foreign bond supplyremains positive MUNI problemsWho is buying municipalsecurities and loans? Household sector accounts for close to half of total municipalbonds outstanding Key investor categories in municipal debt Asset allocations by investortype US households (including hedge funds) are heavily overweightin equities relative to fixed income Pension funds allocate about half of their assets in equities Insurance companies are overweight credit Mutual funds have over half of their allocation in equities Foreign investors increased allocations to US equities in thelast decade Commercial banks hold more Treasuries on their balancesheets after the Global Financial Crisis Foreign Bonds?Models and outlook 10-year model accounting for central bank purchasessuggests a fair value of ~3.4% Dec