全球金属与矿业：美国政策扭曲铜价 铜塔可或博科季末

Global Metals & Mining: Copper Taco or Boco Season Finale - U.S.policy is distorting copper price but what can we do about it? We approach the deadline (June 30th) for the White House to decide on tariffs on refinedcopper. In previous notes, we expressed our TACO view of no tariffs. Trade deals werepromised (Trump Directs Negotiations to Adjust Imports of Processed Critical Minerals)but haven’t arrived from, say, Chile or Indonesia. In this note, we evaluate potential paths forcopper prices. Bernstein Occasionally Chickens Out? Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro, CFA+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Copper prices have surged over the past year due to: (1) supply disruptions at majormines, (2) increased financial speculation (Exhibit 1), (3) additional demand from USinventory stockpiling, as traders anticipate a 15% tariff on refined copper by January 2027,and potentially 30% by January 2028 (Exhibit 2 to Exhibit 3). The potential tariff stems from the Trump’s desire to achieve “resourceindependence”by ensuring sufficient domestic refining capacity and the market forrefined copper in the US (Exhibit 5). Our base case scenario assumes a definitive announcement that refined copperwill not be subject to tariffs.Inventories from US warehouses might flow back to RoWif LME prices are sufficiently higher than Comex prices. Otherwise, US inventory levels willnormalize as stocks are drawn to meet domestic US demand. In this scenario, we foreseegradual decline in copper prices to reach $11,000/t due to incremental supply releasedfrom Comex warehouse. Bull case scenario could unfold through three pathways, listed in order of increasingbullishness for copper prices: (1) extended review period (i.e., decision will be madein the future), (2) Trump introduces 15% tariff, with no firm guidance on potential tariffincreases in 2028, (3) Trump announces both 15% tariff starting January 2027 and 30%tariff starting January 2028. We estimate that the cost to finance and move copper from Western Europe to theUS is about $400/t to $754/t depending on storage duration (Exhibit 7).Potentialupside if Trump introduces 15% tariff is >$2,000/t. This skewed risk/reward ratio createsincentives for traders to keep piling copper in Comex warehouses. Hence, in all bull casescenario, we are likely to see 10kt per week incremental US copper inventories, whichaccumulates to 250-300kt for a 6-mo period (bull case no. 1), and as much as 700-800ktfor a 1.5 year period (bull case no. 3). Assuming stable macro environment, copper prices might reclaim its all-time-highlevel in bull case scenario, even without mine supply failure. Across our coverage, copper price sensitivity (Exhibit 18 to Exhibit 21) is mostpronounced for FCX and ANTO(c.1.5x and 1.4x beta to copper, respectively). This isfollowed by AAL (c.1.1x), with BHP exhibiting a more moderate sensitivity (c.0.7x). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Market-Perform rating on Anglo American, Antofagasta and Freeport McMoRan AAL (Market-Perform) We increase our price target from GBP 23.50 to GBP 26.50 to reflect our latest FX and copper price deck. We continue to usean unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. DETAILS HOW DO WE GET HERE? - A BRIEF RECAP Copper rose significantly last yearfrom $8,691/t in January 2025 to reach $12,598/t on 30 December 2025. It ran furthernorth this year and hit an all-time-high $14,109/t in mid-May.Several factors have contributed to this sharp rise: 1.Supply disruptionsat major copper mines, such as at Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg (e.g., FCX announcement thatproduction from Grasberg would be negatively impacted by mud-rush incident pushed copper prices past $10,000/t inSeptember). 2.Increased financial speculation, with net futures positioning currently at elevated levels. We believe this helped fuelcopper’s rise from $11,000/t to $13,000/t in December. EXHIBIT 1:Net COT positioning had climbed significantly in late Q4 2025, helping copper price to reach $13,000/t inDecember. 3.Additional demand from inventory stockpiling (i.e., channel stuffing) in the US, as traders anticipate a 15% tariff onrefined copper by January 2027, and 30% by January 2028. Overall, we saw copper exchange inventory rose by 267kt in2025, with the rise in Comex 344kt. Year-to-date 2026, copper inventory in LME, SHFE and Comex has increased by 224kt,58kt and 152kt, respectively, making total exchange inventory to rise by 434kt. 4. The last stretch to $14,100/t was partly due to improved risk sentiment as major stock indexes hit their all-time-high levels(Exhibit 4). Widening spread between LME and Comex also helps to maintain positive sentiment in the copper market(Exhibit 10). WHERE ARE WE GOING NEXT? - TARIFFS RISKS The additional demand from US inventory stockpiling is still ongoing.The origin of this phenomenon