全球金属与矿业：简明手册，铜业股投资手册（第三版）

Everybody wants copper. Buy vs. Build a key debateOur tagline:"Decarbonization = Increased Metal Intensity". There is a pretty bullish EquityGlobalNon-Ferrous Metals, Mining &Minerals inference here for electrification metals, think copper, nickel, cobalt maybe lithium,silver, rare earth. Today: Some have more, some less. But everybody seems to wantmore "future facing commodities", copper in particular. We consider: 1) Energy transition.2) Emergent India demand. 3) Other“new”uses (AI, data centres). 4) Supply shocks. Weare bullish copper, calling it to $16,000/t ($7.26/lb) in H2 2027E.Key copper equities:FCX, ANTO, LUN, IVN, ATYM, HBM, KGHM. We also note high-quality copper assets“hidden”inKey Big Miners:Anglo American, BHP, Glencore, Rio Tinto & Zijin. Equity ResearchJason Fairclough>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 0225jason.fairclough@bofa.com Lawson Winder, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Canada)lawson.winder@bofa.com Premium valuation: Cost position, asset life, sizeFor copper“pure plays”we consider valuation vs. key operational attributes. Perhaps not surprisingly, the market pays a premium for low-cost producers with sizeable reservebase = long asset life and/or growth optionality (SCCO, FCX, ANTO). Beyond this, weconsider a possible premium for size & liquidity; Southern Copper’s c. $180 bn marketcap stands out even vs. mega-cap diversified peers (nearly same as Rio Tinto). Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)matty.zhao@bofa.com Caio Ribeiro>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Brazil)caio.ribeiro@bofa.com Pure plays: Copper production = Optionality. Now.We analyse our global coverage universe of copper pure plays to derive an implied EV/t of annual capacity.Punchline:An“average”tonne of mined copper production is worthc. US$95,000 but with high variation based on cost position, mine life, locale & equity“wrapper”. Southern & ANTO have implied EV/t of current capacity of >$100,000whereas smaller, higher cost producers e.g. KGHM, ATYM implied EV/t of capacity $30-40,000/t. If we believe in copper“higher for longer”, is this an opportunity? Kate McCutcheon>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Australia)kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com Reinhardt van derWalt>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)reinhardt.vanderwalt@bofa.com Paul Kirjanovs>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)paul.kirjanovs@bofa.com Diversified miners: High quality, hidden copper businessesWe use EV/t from the pure plays to derive an implied value for the high-quality copper businesses“buried”in large cap diversified miners. Bottom line, these businesses arevery valuable e.g. we estimate BHP’s copper business (equity tonnes c. 1.4 Mtpa) couldbe worth c. $157 bn-$191 bn. Anglo copper (equity tonnes c. 600 ktpa) could be worth$56-$69 bn. GLEN copper (equity tonnes c. 870 ktpa) could be worth $76 bn-92 bn. Howto release? TECK & Anglo American showing the way i.e. shed non-copper assets. Felicity Robson>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)felicity.robson@bofa.com Commodity StrategyMichael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)michael.widmer@bofa.com Higher cost producers = Cheap(er) leverage At the other end of the spectrum we have the“non-tier 1”businesses. This may be aresult of a higher cost position, shorter asset life or other issues. Consider KGHM (highercost, government ownership), Atalaya (higher cost, shorter mine life), HudBay (smallersize, project execution, now deal risk). While some may be optically lower“quality”theequity of these companies may give high gearing to prices moves. For example, forATYM, +10% on copper price gives a +20% move in EBITDA (2026E). High copper pricecould be transformational for equity as windfall free cash flow enables growth projects. Danica AverionCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)danica_ana.averion@bofa.com Contents Comparable company valuations Exhibit1: Comparablecompany valuationsThese are valuations based on our house commodity price forecasts Diversified miner: Revenue breakdown Revenue breakdown by commodity, industrial assets only Everybody wants copper Our tagline is: "Decarbonization = Increased Metal Intensity". There is a pretty bullishinference here for electrification metals, think copper, nickel, cobalt maybe lithium,silver, rare earth. Today: Some have more, some less. But everybody seems to wantmore of these "future facing commodities" - copper in particular. Emergence of India &other“new”uses (AI, data centres) are also driving demand. Bullish copper We are bullish copper, calling it to •$13,188/t ($5.98/lb) in 2026E•$15,500/t ($7.03/lb) in 2027E•$16,000/t ($7.26/lb)“peak”in H2 2027E.•Spot today c. $13,108/t ($5.94/lb). Key equitiesKey copper equities: FCX, ANTO, LUN, IVN, ATYM, HBM, KGHM. We also consider high-quality copper businesses“hidden”inside diversified miners.Focus stocks: Anglo American, Glencore, BHP, Zijin, Rio Tinto. Killer chart: EV/t vs. cash cost We estimate enterprise value (EV) per tonne (t) of attributable annual copper production.Here we show that vs. C1 cash cost (