美国能源转型：电网、天然气与绿色领域研究

The American Energy Transition: Grid, Gas, and Green - SectorInitiation - Power and Energy Transition The energy transition is not a switch you flip. It’s a dial you turn slowly, deliberately, and withenormous consequence. - Dan Yergin Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com We are launching positively on three energy sub sectors - power, clean energy, and liquefiednatural gas (LNG) - the through line across is that we believe the US is undergoing a once-in-a-generation restructuring of how energy is produced, moved, and consumed - drivensimultaneously by energy security imperatives, decarbonization goals, and surging newdemand with data centers and AI.Gas funds the transition (at least in the US), utilities enableit by building the infrastructure, and clean energy is the ultimate destination! Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Ten key macro takeaways: 1. Moving off of hydrocarbons is going to take a long time and a ton more investment.Global clean energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion last year – and yet that’s lessthan half the $5-8 trillion a year that is needed by 2030 to actually transition away fromfossil fuels. So this is a multi-decade capital allocation story. 2. The U.S. is natural gas rich and gas is the incumbent in the US grid (40% of USelectricity is supplied by gas). It is energy dense, affordable, and abundant in the US.Reliability is a concern not just for data centers - reliability is invisible until the lightsgo out. Gas is the baseload that makes for a stable, reliable grid. Gas in the US canmeet growing global LNG demand as well as growing power demand. US gas hasthe opportunity to displace coal globally, thus helping to reduce emissions, whilekeeping electricity costs low in the US, and also providing firm, reliable power. For thisreason, we areOutperformonGEV.Welike LNG (Outperform)with its long-durationcontracted portfolio. We like the disruptive nature of VG, but remain cautious on theequity(VG - Market-Perform)looking for more legal clarity and a couple of milestonescoming later this year. 3. Power demand in the US is growing after decades of no growth. We are long power, andan all-of-the-above strategy is required to meet this renewed demand. Wefavor NEE(Outperform).We see its (growing) regulated arm as a floor for the stock price, andbelieve it is the only name that can provide regulated stable returns (FPL), with an addedgrowth arm in NEER. NEER can go out and contract long term PPAs and also deliver“Bring Your Own Generation”, which we think are the key factors for profitability growth.We are favorable on the Dominion merger, pending regulatory approval. 4. We forecast overall power demand growth in the US at a CAGR of ~3% through 2030with power demand from AI and data centers growing at a >10% CAGR (we modelpower supply and demand by source and sector to arrive at our forecasts). 5. Existing US grid infrastructure is not equipped to deal with the level of power demandgrowth we are seeing (and forecasting) and we expect electrification businesses tobe the beneficiaries of the grid upgrades required. While cautiously optimistic, weanticipate VPPs and GETs (Virtual Power Plants, and Grid Enhancing Technologies) willplay a big role in optimizing power systems. We likeGEV, not just for its robust powerbusiness, but also for its continued focus on the electrification segment, which we thinkwill be a cornerstone of the US grid in the coming decades. 6. Existing, clean firm power generators such asVST, andCEGhave a major role to play,especially in the congested PJM market, where capacity prices have recently run up.VST has derated after the initial AI exuberance, and we now see fundamentals-drivenupside from capacity and price growth, supported by the contracting potential ofexisting assets. CEG was a name synonymous with nuclear, and we see upside withmore contractible power. We like the Calpine acquisition adding (natural gas) balanceto the (primarily nuclear) portfolio as it provides more dispatchable power. We areOutperformon both. 7. While grid connections and upgrades are pending, Behind The Meter (BTM) solutionsthat can deliver reliability and connect quickly are advantaged. In the era of growingpower demand, speed to market and reliability are in favor. We likeBE’s solution(solid oxide fuel cells), but see the stock as expensive at current prices(BE- Market-Perform). We areOutperformonFRVO(Enhanced Geothermal) as another promisingpower solution, andUnderperform on ORA, as we believe EGS will eat market sharefrom conventional geothermal. 8. Policy is a key driver of our clean energy names, and the uncertainty on subsidiessupporting green technologies is a hurdle to stable long term investment.ENPHhas derated over 500% from its peak, partially driven by policy headwinds, as wellas a slowdown in residential solar. We rateENPH Market-Perform,as we believethe company