保持锂离子电池材料（15）

Australia | Metals & Mining Keeping an Ion Battery Materials (15) The last two weeks saw relative stability across the new energy complex.Lithium prices continued their recent slow slide, and a fire at IGO's CGP3may impact facility ramp-up over the coming months. Policy volatilityremainsa key cost support mechanism across the landscape,withDRC cobalt and spodumene volumes and Indonesian nickel productionimpacted by sales quotas, royalty regimes and export controls, respectively. Global lithium complex.Spodumene prices (Figure 1) continued the gradual retreat thatstarted in mid- to late May, finishing the week at ~US$2,450/t SC6e. The DRC approved adecree listing lithium as a strategic mineral, thereby raising the royalty rate from 3.5% to 10%.The Australian supply response continued, with Develop (DVP AU) approving FID for ~850ktpaat 1.2%Li₂Oof DSO (~70kt/month) at Pioneer Dome from the Dec-26 quarter. The DSO productwill be sold on a CIF China basis through an offtake agreement with Trafigura. CATL restart sees additional delays.JXW’s originally planned mid-June resumption ofproduction has been pushed back. Current market commentary suggests CATL’s JXW minewill re-open in late July or early August, initially operating at ~50% capacity to comply withtailings dam storage limits while a more permanent solution is implemented. This could takeup to ~12 months following approval. We have observed some remediation and earthworksthat may be supporting re-start activities.A full restart could add ~7–8kt LCE/month toChinese supply. CGP3 fire.A fire occurred at Chemical Grade Plant 3 (CGP3) at IGO, Albemarle and Tianqi’sshared Greenbushes operation on 9 June and was extinguished with no injuries sustained.No details on the cause of the event have been released to the market. The reagent storagearea at MIN’s and ALB’s Wodgina facility previously caught fire in late 2023. Company releasesindicate that CGP1 and CGP2 operations are unaffected, and that Greenbushes productionremains on track to meet IGO’s FY26 guidance (1,375–1,425kt JEFe: 1,417kt, VAe: 1,413kt). Indonesian sulphur imports.Indonesian sulphur imports for May-26 were down 30% MoM.Total imports of 145kt were down 30% compared with Apr-26. Approximately one-third ofimported material was sourced from India (Figure 2), around one-third (55kt) from GCCmember states, with the majority of the balance delivered from greater Asia. Indonesianimports of Filipino nickel ore increased in line with normal seasonal trends (Figure 3). Source: Jefferies, Factset, Bloomberg, Transport &Environment Raw and precursor materials.Cathode precursor and NCM prices, which had begun to breakout of the range-bound behaviour observed since the start of the conflict in the Middle East(Figure 11 & Figure 12), have normalised around pre-war levels. Nickel sulphate prices continueto see cost support from ongoing policy changes in Indonesia, while the cobalt market remainsdependent on DRC policy decisions. Electrolyte prices have continued to decline, largely incontrast to input price movements (Figure 16). Mitch Ryan * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2998 | mryan1@jefferies.com Battery (power and ESS).Battery prices remain flat (Figure 17 & Figure 18). On the demandside, softer BEV and PHEV sales across the US and China appear to have been somewhatoffset by strong European growth. Rising raw material costs (+69% y/y, +4% m/m) haveincreased NCM622 production costs to ~$44.0/kWh. LFP raw material costs rose +88% y/yand +5% m/m to $23.7/kWh. Prices are at their highest level since mid-2023 (Figure 4). Laurence Alexander ^ | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com Alejandro Anibal Demichelis ‡ | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.com Daniel Roden * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2918 | droden@jefferies.com Hamish Wiltshire * | Equity Associate+61 2 9364 2993 | hwiltshire@jefferies.com James Lloyd * | Equity Associate+61 2 9364 2999 | jlloyd@jefferies.com Upstream Pricing .Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies Midstream Pricing Source: Shanghai Metals Market, Jefferies Source: Shanghai Metals Market, Jefferies Source: Shanghai Metals Market, Jefferies Downstream Pricing Source: Shanghai Metals Market, Jefferies Source: Shanghai Metals Market, Jefferies Equity View .Source: FactSet, Jefferies Source: FactSet, Jefferies Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Mitch Ryan, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed