您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [新华汇富]:金山软件(3888.HK):AI主题且具备强劲下行保护 - 发现报告

金山软件(3888.HK):AI主题且具备强劲下行保护

2026-06-16 - 新华汇富 Lee
报告封面

16 June 2026 What’s Hot Today: ►Kingsoft (3888 HK, HK$23.74, HK$32.8bn) : AI-themed withstrong downside protection KingsoftCorporationisasoftwarecompanywiththreebusinesspillarsnamely,KingsoftOffice(688111CH,51.45%owned),KingsoftCloud(3896HK)andonlinegames.Recently,itssistercompany,Xiaomi,whichisalsoownedbyMr.LeiJunpurchasedKingsoftsharesfromtheopenmarketandliftinghisownershipfrom KingsoftOfficeisthekeyvalueanchor:ItsWPSOfficehasasoliduserbase,withanestimateof34%marketshareinChina,aheadofMicrosoftOfficeat28%.AsattheendofMarch2026,therewere672mnglobalmonthlyactivedevices(+7%YoY),coveringover220countriesandregions.Overseaspayingindividualusersreached2.85mn(+63%YoY)asoftheendof2025whilethenumberofdomestic Lookingahead,itsWPSOfficeiscontinuingupgradingwithmore AIservicecapabilitiesand driving more conversion into WPS AI active users.It waspreviouslyreportedthattherewereover80mnmonthlyactiveusersinChina During1Q26,thesegmentrecordeda24%YoYrevenuegrowthtoRMB1.61bn.InFY25,itgeneratedrevenueofRMB5.93bn(+16%YoY/61%ofgrouprevenue)andnetprofitofRMB1.84bn(+12%YoY/30%NPM).WithKingsoft’s51.45%interestinKingsoftOffice,itcontributedtoabout47%ofKingsoft’snetprofit. KingsoftCloudoffersAIcatalyst:Currently,AIcloudisestimatedtocontributeapproximatelyhalfofKingsoft’spubliccloudrevenue,drivinga47%YoYincreasein1Q26publiccloudrevenuetonearlyRMB2bn.Meanwhile,customerswithintheXiaomiandbroaderKingsoftecosystemremainacornerstoneofdemand, WhilestrongAIcomputingdemandcontinuestofuelgrowthinAIcloudservices,italsonecessitatessustainedcapitalexpenditure,whichmayweighonnear-termprofitability.Nevertheless,givenKingsoft’sleadingmarketpositionanditsdeepintegrationwiththeXiaomiecosystem,thecompanyiswellpositionedtoremain MorningSnapshot HongKong&ChinaMarketDaily 16 June 2026 Agameportfoliowithsolidcashflow:ItsonlinegamebusinessisledbytheJX3OnlineseriesoperatedbySeasuninwhichKingsoftownsaround72%interest.Inaddition,KingsoftShiyou(80%owned)isactivelybringinginlicensedgamessuchasRovio’sAngryBirdsandGooseGooseDuck,lookingtomaintainitsuserbase. Astrongbalancesheetprovidesdownsideprotection:AsoftheendofMarch2026,thecompanyhadaboutRMB23.3bnofcashwithminimalbankloansofRMB10mn.NetassetsstoodatRMB34.5bn,translatingto OurView:WearepositiveaboutKingsoft’scurrentriskreward.KingsoftOfficeisalreadytheleaderinChina’sofficesoftwaremarket.WPSisfullycompatiblewithMSOffice,easytouse,andbackedbyamulti-deviceecosystem.Itshouldcontinuetobenefitfromdomesticsoftwaresubstitution,governmentdigitization,andSOE MarketconcernsaroundAIreducingofficesoftwaresubscriptiondemandappearoverstated.WPSrevenueisstillmainlydrivenbypersonalusers,whileWPS365enterpriserevenueaccountsforonlyaround12%.ItisexpectedthatAIismorelikelytoimproveuserengagement,membershipconversion,andARPUratherthan Onvaluation,KingsoftisestimatedtohaveattributablenetcashofaroundRMB9-10bnafterexcludingcashheldwithinitslistedsubsidiaries.Inaddition,theattributableFY26EconsensusearningsofKingsoftOfficeFY26EareexpectedtobearoundRMB1.39bn.Valuingthisat15xP/EimpliesafairvalueofaboutRMB20.9bn. ThesetwocomponentsalonealreadyexceedKingsoft’scurrentmarketcap,suggestingthattheonlinegamingsegmentand Kingsoft Cloud are effectively free.The counter is trading at 17x FY26E P/E.(Research So urce: B lo o mberg Disclaimer Thisdocumentisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyorsubscribeforanysecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentmaynotbeeligibleforsaleincertainjurisdiction.Neitherthisdocumentnoranyportionhereofmaybetakendistributedortransmitteddirectlyorindirectlyintosuchjurisdictionnortoanyresidentsthereof.Anyfailuretocomplywiththisrestrictionmayconstituteaviolationoftheapplicablelawsandregulationsandpersonsintowhosepossessionthisdocumentcomesshouldinformthemselvesabout,andobserve,anysuchrestrictions.Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedforprivatecirculationandmaynotbe ThisreportisdistributedinHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(“HongKong”)byKFSwhichisregisteredasalicensedcorporationundertheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571ofTheLawsofHongKong)withtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionofHongKong(“SFC”)anditsSFCCEnumberisADF346. Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthas been takenfrom sourcesbelievedtobe reliablebut norepresentationor warrantyexpressedorimpliedismadeastotheiraccuracyorcorrectness.Thisreportispublishedfortheassistanceofrecipientsbutisnottoberelieduponasauthoritativeortakeninsubstitutionfortheexerciseofjudgmentbyanyrecipient.Itisnottobeconstruedasanoffer,invitation or solicitation to buy or sell anysecurities of the company or companies covered herein.Anyrecommendation KFS,includingitsparent,subsidiariesand/oraffiliates,mayactasleadorco-managerinanofferingofthesecuritiesofanyissuerdiscussedherein,mayfromtimetotimeperformfinancialservicesorotheradvisoryservicesfor,orsolicitfinancialservicesorotherbusinessfrom,anyissuer. Withinthepastyear,KFS,includingitsparent,subsidiariesand/oraffiliates,mayhaveactedasmarketmakerortradedonaprincipalbasisinthefinancialinstruments