DNV能源转型展望2026：至2060年氢能发展路径

From pilots to scale for renewable andlow-carbon hydrogen and synthetic fuels FOREWORD The industry is now poised for growth, but it isa fragile stance. Hydrogen completes the mostdifficult aspects of the decarbonization drive thatso many nations have committed to. In driving fossildependency out of critical sectors, hydrogen alsocontributes meaningfully to energy security. It istime for policymakers to carefully study the practicalprogress that has been made and to act decisively,always remembering that while hydrogen is thesimplest element in the universe, its behaviour in thereal world is unusually complex, unpredictable, andtechnically demanding. Welcome to DNV’s new forecast for hydrogen through to 2060. Our first comprehensiveattempt to forecast hydrogen’s role in the energy transition as a low-carbon and renewableenergy carrier was in 2022. Like almost all mainstream energy forecasters at that time,we were overly optimistic. In the years since then, decarbonization actions have weakened,most obviously in the US, but also elsewhere. At the expensive end of decarbonization, cleanhydrogen has suffered disproportionately (along with carbon capture and storage) withcutbacks and delays to policy support. As a result, we have scaled back our long-termforecast for clean hydrogen (to 2050) by 45%. Producing clean hydrogen is not just aboutconstructing new facilities; it involves buildingentirely new supply chains and, beyond supply,new value chains for the offtake of clean molecules.For instance, low-carbon hydrogen from coal ornatural gas requires both carbon capture, and viabletransport and storage for that carbon. Renewablehydrogen is dependent on renewable power,a steady supply of electrolysers, and specialistequipment and know-how (e.g. inherently safedesign with sensors and barrier management) for thebalance of plant. In both cases, offtake may involvefurther processing into hydrogen derivatives, e.g.ammonia, e-methanol, and synthetic fuels, whichpresupposes the availability of sufficient biogenicCO2to meet low emissions thresholds. However, as we outline in this new forecast, that stillleaves a substantial market for clean hydrogen, withvolumes growing 100-fold between now and 2060,and with cumulative CAPEX investment of someUSD 3 trillion over the next three decades. policy support beyond presently-stated commitmentsin the form of mandates, subsidies, offtakeagreements, contracts for difference, and so on. It is important to underline that the clean hydrogenindustry has not been at a standstill these past fouryears, and especially not in China where there is nowa strong push to scale up clean hydrogen — largely anew development tied to the current (15th) Five-YearPlan. There are now over 1,500 planned pilot andsmall-scale hydrogen projects worldwide; about onethird have advanced to final investment decision (FID);only a handful of substantial projects have advancedto construction. Some of those, as well as key jointindustry initiatives led by DNV, are highlightedin this report. Piloting and collaboration haveprovided valuable insights into the safety, efficiency,sustainability, and financing of clean hydrogen. Manyof these lessons have now been recorded, withimportant recommended practices, guidelines, andnew standards published or soon to be released. While the nascent clean hydrogen industry has beentackling these teething challenges, cheaper renewablesand electrification have powered ahead. In the last fouryears alone, the world has added more solar, wind, andbattery capacity than the entire power capacity of theEuropean Union — twice! Cheap renewable power hascrowded out clean hydrogen from residential buildings,some medium-heat applications in industry, andeven heavy trucks. At the same time, the addressablemarket for clean hydrogen and its derivatives is nowmore focused on those areas of energy demand thatare impossible to electrify: high-temperature heat inindustry, feedstock for steel, aviation both as e-SAFand for refining bio-SAF, and maritime (in the form ofammonia and e-methanol). Clean hydrogen is not market competitive andwill remain so until carbon emission costs aresufficiently high — both on the supply and demandside. Despite ongoing technology learning and costimprovements, our forecast volumes are predicatedon continued — and, in some cases, intensified — There are now over 1,500 planned pilot andsmall-scale hydrogen projects worldwide;about one third have advanced to finalinvestment decision (FID). Ditlev EngelCEO, Energy SystemsDNV HIGHLIGHTS Clean hydrogen will grow 100-fold from today and mitigate over 2 Gt of emissions fromhard-to-electrify sectors annually by 2060 Energy security will boost hydrogen production in energyimporting countries — Renewable and low-carbon (clean) hydrogenremain key to decarbonizing hard-to-electrifyindustries. It will replace 65 Mt of unabatedhydrogen use, decarbonize manufacturing, and beused in synthetic fuels for aviation and mariti