中国展望：数据参差不齐，传导效果疲软

Mixed data, weak pass-through May data painted a mixed picture, with strong exportsoffsettingweak consumption and housing. Despite higher oil-driven PPI, pass-through to CPI remains limited, reflectingfirms'difficultyin passing on costs. Retail sales and FAI are setto weaken further, while IP is set to rebound on exports. Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Yingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Following the broad-based slowdown in April, major economic indicators released this weekand high-frequency data for May painted a mixed picture, though on balance still pointing to aslowdown in growth momentum in Q2. Export growth accelerated and significantly exceededmarket expectations, whilesofter-than-expectedCPI inflation, slower credit growth and adeeper contraction in auto sales pointed to weak consumption, and the weak new propertysales confirmed that the rebound in the housing market is short-lived. Next week, we expectretail sales and fixed asset investment to weaken further as the impact of front-loaded fiscalstimulus fades. Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Moreover, despite the Middle East conflict lasting more than three months, May PPI and CPIdata continued to suggest limited pass-through from higher oil and petrochemical-related rawmaterial prices—which pushed up PPI significantly to 3.9% y/y—to consumer goods andservices, with core CPI edging down to 1.1% y/y in May, remaining below its pre-conflict averageof 1.3% in January–February. This is consistent with our channel checks, indicating that firmsare still struggling to pass through higher input costs along the value chain. AI and green-tech pushed exports higher China's export growth accelerated further, rising 19.4% y/y in May following a 14.1% increase inApril, exceeding both the market and our expectations ( Bloomberg: 15%, Barclays: 14%).Breakdown data suggest stronger shipments to the US and across the region (ASEAN, Korea,Japan and Taiwan), while shipments to the EU and UKsoftened.The robust performance cameagainst the backdrop of 1) a continued uptick in global manufacturing activity, evidenced by theglobal manufacturing PMI holding at a four-year high of 52.6 in May despite the prolongedenergy shock, and 2) broad-based strength across major manufacturing exporters, ranging fromlow-to-mid product exports from Vietnam (May: 18% y/y), to high-end oriented product exportsfrom Korea (May: 53.2%), to the full-supply-chain exports from China (May: 19.4%). Demand for high-tech products, particularly AI-related and green-tech goods, remained a keydriver, helping to alleviate concerns over the impact of the Middle East energy shock on externaldemand. The ongoing global AI capex cycle continues to underpin demand for China's AI-related exports, given the country is a key supplier of AI manufactured components. High-techexports accounted for 29.8% of total export value in May, growing 51% y/y (April: 39%), withnotable acceleration in semiconductors (+111%) and automatic data processing equipment andparts (+66%). At the same time, the energy shock is supporting demand for renewable products,while persistent geopolitical tensions could further accelerate the global green transition, anarea where China remains well positioned as a leading low-cost, high-quality supplier. Year-to- date data show sustained double-digit growth in EVs, lithium batteries, wind turbines, and solarcells. Upstream-driven PPI, weak pass-through The May price data suggest oil prices continued to push up PPI inflation (May: 3.9% y/y, April:2.8%) and energy-related components of CPI, while the impact on core and services CPIremained contained, pointing to limited second-roundeffects.On a month-on-month basis,PPI began to normalize alongside somewhat lower-though-still-elevated oil prices. Pricedeclines emerged in oil and gas extraction, while price increases in chemicals, fibers, rubber,and plastics moderated. The May PPI breakdown underscores the uneven impact of the Middle East conflict on prices.Upstream segments continued to lead, with raw materials rising by 9.2% y/y (April: 7.1%) andmining by 15.8% (April: 10.6%). While select manufacturing segments such as electricalmachinery and electronics saw some price gains, overall manufacturing inflation remainedmore subdued at 2.3% y/y (April: 1.5%). Meanwhile, price declines in downstream consumergoods persisted (May: -0.8%, April: -1.0%), suggesting that firms are still struggling to passthrough higher input costs along the value chain. CPI was unchanged at 1.2% y/y in May, with larger support from energy in May compared withApril. Despite lower oil prices in the month, a favourable year-ago base pushed domesticgasoline inflation higher (23.5% y/y versus 19.3%),liftingits contribution to headline CPI toaround 0.66pp (from 0.56pp previously). Elsewhere, both core and services CPI edged lower,with continued wea